[EUR] Still Uncertainty 2019 0201

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

[EUR] Still Uncertainty  2019 0201

U.S. Federal Reserve's policy was in the market expectation. Fed froze its benchmark interest rate, 2.25~2.50 percent which the market analysts expected, on Wednesday and the price of currency pair EUR/USD surged.

Jerome Powell, Chair of Fed implied the benchmark rate will not be risen in this year at the press conference after FOMC meeting.

It made market participants thought weak greenback, and U.S. dollar fell against euro.

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD slides after FOMC statement was released, but market analysts look as the technical correction after the price-surge.

Fed's decision may leads weak greenback, but we need to watch euro zone economy carefully. As Italian GDP is under the technical recession, euro zone economy faces recession risk. Brexit risk threaten the economy of England as well as euro zone.

Commodity traders may be interested in buying gold, but forex traders have difficulty to find the trend-line direction.







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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[USDX] Keeping Long 2019 0124

U.S. dollar index four-hour chart, source:FXstreet.com

cf. < [USDX] Turning to Dove 2019 0107

The economy outlook in the year has warned the global recession. International Monetary Fund, IMF adjusted its world economy growth in the year to 3.5 percent which was lowered 0.2 percent point from the expectation three months ago. And Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director warned the global recession at World Economy Forum, or Davos Forum.

The possibility of recession makes world investors to be more interested in safety asset such as gold, Japanese Yen and greenback. And economists  goldilocks in U.S. economy is over, economists

In the four-hour chart, dollar index keeps its upward trend and moves in bollinger bands. It's not hard to look at the chart with long bias, and though it may fall it will rebound at bottom band. Of course, there is always a possibility of plunging below the band.

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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, USDX, dollar index, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 달러, 달러인덱스

[EUR] Downward Trend or Rally 2019 0122

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

International Monetary Fund, IMF adjusted its world economy growth in the year to 3.5 percent which was lowered 0.2 percent point comparing to expectation three months ago. And Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director warned the global recession at World Economy Forum, or Davos Forum.

The uncertainty of world economy stimulates investors to be more interested in safety asset such as gold, greenback.

During the last week, price of the currency pair, EUR/USD plunged and failed to break through the upper band of Bollinger Bands. Whenever it faced the upper band, it moved back in one-hour chart. Four-hour chart of EUR/USD showed the Head-and-Shoulders pattern, a typical price-fall pattern.

It may be hard to say the rebound of the price.

But the pattern is to be built, plunge is over and it may rebound for short term.





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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[GBP] Response Rather than Prediction 2019 0117

GBP/USD four-hour chart, soure:FXDD.com

It is usually told that the trading is not the prediction but the response. Traders don't need to analyse and predict the market, tell someone.

These words are evaluated now, because the global economy put traders into the filed of more difficult level.

One of the major currency pair, GBP/USD is tested its trend due to Brexit on March 29. Members of Parliament rejected Brexit draft on Tuesday. Most of economists, analysts and traders expected the meaningful vote would be failed and the result of the vote didn't  affected to the market strongly.

But it is hard to analyse and predict the trend of GBP/USD. It makes traders to respond to the market not to expect.

Despite the failure of the meaningful vote, the pound was not shaken nor turned to downward trend. Rather, it is the figure that keeps rising for dollar little by little.

We need to watch the chart more carefully.




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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, pound, GBP, GBP/USD, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 파운드

[EUR] Long Bias in the Year? 2019 0114

EUR/USD daily chart, source:FXDD.com

Many of economists look this year with recession carefully, and Jarome Powell, Chair of Federal Reserve Board hinted last year that his position was switched to dovish seat. Global economy except the United States isn't predicted to be good, either. The investors in stock markets around world can get short bias, but what bias in forex?

The value of the currencies are determined with the relative economy among the countries. In this case, one of the safety asset, greenback was supported by traders, investors and economists before, but it's not clear in this year.

The daily chart of EUR/USD was chosen to analyse the market this time. The daily charts were not used as the analysis tool in Gjallarhorn. But these time don't show the explicit chart or signals in hours charts and daily chart was picked up.

The falling daily chart turned the direction since last mid-November. There are price up and down, but it has kept the mild upward trend.

The short-time chart such as four-hour chart, one-hour chart show the just vibrating price movement, but the longer hints about the direction. Of course, no one knows how long the trend continues.

Though there are correction some times, the long bias to euro may be attractive now.


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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, USDX, dollar index, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 달러, 달러인덱스

[USDX] Turning to Dove 2019 0107

Dollar Index weekly chart, source:FXSTREET.com

Many of economists don't expect Goldilocks of United States in the year as well as global economy any more. Goldman Sachs predicts major markets will grow 2.1 percent.

And Jarome Powell, Chair of Federal Reserve Board hinted last year that U.S. benchmark interest rate would be raised several times this year though the hard-landing reports.

These news have made investors to turn back to safety asset such as gold, bonds and U.S. dollar.

But Powell hinted last week that the hike of benchmark's rate would be restrained. Market analysts predict the interest rate will be one or two in the year and the rate will not be raised till June. Powell's comments supported weak greenback, euro rose and dollar index fell.

Rising Dollar index, USDX sidled along Bollinger Bands since 2nd half of last year and turned down in the bands recording 96.xx. The trend line since last February still supports the upward trend but it seems to lose its momentum for about one year. It may be tested to turn its trend in the weekly chart.

The four-hour chart shows the index failed to break through upper band of Bollinger Bands and to make the upward trend in short-and-mid term. It hints the trend down.

Does dollar sit on a slide? It's not clear yet.


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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, USDX, dollar index, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 달러, 달러인덱스