[EUR] Economy news and Forex 2019 0514

EUR/USD daily chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Non-Farm and Euro  2019 0503

The technical analysis in the foreign market is less effective than economy news in these days. Though the chart reflects the market and the economy ecosystem, watching the news is easier.

And typical responses on the economy news and Forex events are watched differently comparing the past.

The hot issue on economy including foreign exchange is the U.S.-China trade tension. The tension which nearly has reached the agreement, rises again, and the markets of stock, foreign exchange are in the turbulence.

The positive prospect on the trade tension lowered greenback. But as the agreement is failed, US dollar rises and euro falls.

Both of America and China don't want the catastrophe and investors believe it and want to believe it. Therefore the price of major currency pair EUR/USD moves up and down in the channel and searches the direction of trend.


The trend line of the pair is downward and is similar to 120 exponential moving average line, but the price attempts to break through. If the attempt succeeds, the trend may be upward.



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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[USDX] Downward Trend? 2019 0512

Dollar Index four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

cf. [USDX] Non-Farm and Hourly Earnings 2019 0504

Currency pairs and dollar index move by economy events, that is, Forex itself is less effective than external factors.

Watching the economy news is more important than technical analysis in these days. Federal Reserve System chair's speaking, U.S.-Sino Trade conflict are very powerful materials to Forex.

The positive expectation of the trade war makes the investors predict the positive United States economy and dollar index, dollar's value compare to major six currencies, rises. Sometimes it guides them to expectation of global economy's growth and leads greenback down.

It is not just to look at economic indicators and news, but also to look carefully at investment sentiment. This is because they show opposite behaviors for the same result.

The United States raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 25 percent on Friday. The trade war doesn't help global economy growth and has raised dollar index, but now investors guess it isn't good factor for U.S. economy and makes dollar index down.

The uncertainty of U.S.-Sino trade war's end lowers dollar index recording 97.31, now.

In technical view, USDX seems to change its trend to downward in four-hour chart. It made the peak of 98.33 when the advanced GDP was released 3.2 percent in annual rate, and it lowered the second peak in four-hour chart.

As dollar rises, investors who think dollar has risen enough increase, too.



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[USDX] Non-Farm and Hourly Earnings 2019 0504

Dollar Index, four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

Good economic scores in USA make investors support strong dollar. The advanced GDP released a week, and non-farm employment change and unemployment rate show good economy situation in the United States. Fed Chair, Jerome Powell spoke the inflation was under the goal, 2.0 percent and the benchmark interest rate wouldn't be risen.

These economy events led U.S. dollar up, and other currencies such as euro, pound and Korea won down.

Non-Farm employment change in United States, April which was released on Friday, increased 263 thousands and unemployment rate fell to 3.6 percent. They were forecasted 181 thousands and 3.8 percent respectively. The unemployment rate recorded historic low in fifty years.

These record should lead strong dollar as previous score of GDP, unchanged benchmark rate did. But U.S. dollar on Friday retreated unlike predicted. It was because market participants focused on Average Hourly Earnings more than non-farm and unemployment, Yonhap Infomax reported. The average hourly earnings increased 0.2 percent but it was predicted 0.3 percent. The lower record than expected index hinted the inflation pressure wasn't strong and Fed would not raise the benchmark interest rate. Traders thought that and it restrained the rise of greenback.

And Dollar Index, USDX, dollar's value compared to major six currencies scored 97.46 in this week.

In technical view, USDX seems to change its trend to downward in four-hour chart. It made the peak of 98.33 when the advanced GDP was released 3.2 percent in annual rate, and it lowered the second peak in four-hour chart.

USDX is on the upward trend line yet, but there is possibility of breaking the trend. Because there are investors and traders who guess dollar long positions are enough, and they focused on hourly earnings than more powerful non-farm employment change.

As dollar rises, investors who think dollar has risen enough increase, too.






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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, USDX, dollar index, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 달러, 달러인덱스

[EUR] Non-Farm and Euro 2019 0503

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

Nothing is better than present in United States. On Friday, Non-Farm employment change in United States, April increased 263 thousands and unemployment rate fell to 3.6 percent. They were forecasted 181 thousands and 3.8 percent respectively. The unemployment rate recorded historic low in fifty years.

On Wednesday FOMC, Federal Open Market Committee unchanged Federal Funds Rate, 2.25 to 2.5 percent band. Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke Fed would not reduce benchmark rate due to the inflation under the goal. And the GDP in first quarter in the United States recorded higher than that of market expectation a week ago. The economy-growth rate was released at annual rate of 3.2 percent and the market predicted 2.5 percent.

The positive economic records support the strong greenback. They made investors expect the recovery of global economy and led U.S. dollar down and euro up. It helped the currencies in emerging market up, too. But the risk of global recession except USA supports strong dollar.

The good records from America have helped traders, investors and analysts think only U.S. economy good but economy in others bad, and made greenback up, euro and etc. down. Dollar Index, showing the value of greenback compared to major six currencies recorded high.

Before non-farm employment change and the unemployment rate are released, market participants anticipated good record would lead dollar up.

But the released records today don't support strong dollar, yet. It's 1500(UTC). If the euro rises unlike the past, investors are expecting the global economy to recover through the US index.






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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화