[EUR] Exchange Rate War? 2019 0729

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Draghi Leads Euro Up 2019 0726

The main event in the week is FOMC meeting, and FOMC determines benchmark interest rate on Wednesday.

Market participants just look at the market and wait FOMC's statement. FOMC is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate 25bp, or 0.25 percent.

It is the material for weak dollar. FOMC's possible intrest-rate cut lowers the price of greenback. Then the chart of currency pair, eur/usd will rise.

And Europe Central Bank, ECB froze its benchmark interest rate, Main Refinancing Rate to zero percent on last Thursday, which was in line with market expectations. In the press release, ECB spoke the benchmark interest rate would be frozen till next early year or may be cut.

The market participants got the hint of interest rate cut in next September, and this event lowered the price of euro. The one of the major currency pair, EUR/USD which shows euro's value dropped to 1.1100, lowest record in recent two month.

Two economy units, euro zone and the United States cut their benchmark-interest rate to avoid the recession respectively, and it put the trend of eur/usd in mixed state. It is worried the exchange rate war between two units after U.S.-Sino trade conflict.

If you don't have any position of long or short, it is recommended just to watch the market till benchmark-interest rate is released. The mail trend of currency pair may be confirmed after FOMC meeting on July 31.




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[EUR] Draghi Leads Euro Up 2019 0726

EUR/USD fou-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

Europe Central Bank, ECB froze its benchmark interest rate, Main Refinancing Rate to zero percent on Thursday, which was in line with market expectations. In the press release, ECB spoke the benchmark interest rate would be frozen till next early year or may be cut.

The market participants got the hint of interest rate cut in next September, and this event lowered the price of euro. The one of the major currency pair, EUR/USD which shows euro's value dropped to 1.1100, lowest record in recent two month.

And economy score in euro zone helped euro to fall, too.  German flash Manufacturing PMI released on Wednesday was 43.1 worse than expectation, 45.1, and German Ifo Biz Climate released on Thursday recorded 95.7. Market expected 97.1

But ECB president Mario Draghi showed his less dovish position and his press conference led euro's rebound. EUR/USD hit 1.11450, 0.07 percent rising at the end of New York Market.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell already suggested the benchmark-rate cut in next week, and market participants expect 25bp(basis point) or 0.25 percent point cut in next FOMC meeting on July 31. It makes dollar's diving but this material has been already reflected on the price.

The chart of eur/usd shows downward trend. We need to watch whether the trend will be changed by FOMC's decision. Euro keeps its rebounding in Asian market. It succeeded the rebounding but will face 120 Exponential Moving Average, possible resistance line. If it failed to break through the downward trend will be kept.


And the mail trend of currency pair may be confirmed after FOMC meeting on July 31.



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[USDX] Watching the Market in the Short Term 2019 0717

Dollar Index, four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

cf. [USDX] 포지션 보유기간을 짧게 가져가야  2019 0623
cf. [USDX] Has Risen Too Much?  2019 0605
cf. [USDX] Downward Trend? 2019 0512
cf. [USDX] Non-Farm and Hourly Earnings 2019 0504

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested U.S. benchmark-cut on Tuesday, again. Market participants expect U.S.  benchmark rate is cut 25bp(0.25 percent) in late July. And U.S. President Donald Trump supports weak dollar.

These leaders view on greenback may lower greenback's price.

But dollar's price against six currencies basket rose to 97.36 on Tuesday. The interest-rate-cut event is already reflected price and the good U.S. economy support dollar's rising. U.S. Retail Sales month over month was 0.4 percent and it surpassed market's expectation 0.1 percent. Dollar Index, USDX broke through 97.0 again.

Euro zone leader suggests weak euro, as U.S. leaders do on greenback. ECB President-nominee Christine Lagarde suggests the Quantitative Easing and it means euro's diving. And emerging markets prefer weak their currencies.

All currencies are supported their price down, it may become the Currency Conflict around the world. It restrains dollar's down.

Four-hour chart of Dollar Index has lowered its peaks gradually though this rising. It seems that it has difficulty of breaking-through 97.60. Gjallarhorn thinks the price of greenback will move up and down in some channel.

It is available to watch the market in the short term.






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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, USDX, dollar index, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 달러, 달러인덱스

[EUR] Long Bias But Watching More Carefully 2019 0716

EUR/USD Daily Chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Powell's hint 2019 0711

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at 17:00(UTC), Tuesday. He has hinted the benchmark-rate cut during his testimony in U.S. Congress. His planned speak seems to lead weak dollar as he did in last week.

And U.S. President Donald Trump supports weak dollar.

Market participants expect U.S.  benchmark rate is cut 25bp(0.25 percent) in late July.

But it's not certain that greenback moves on the downward trend. Not only Trump but also economy leaders in euro zone support their currency is weak.

ECB President Mario Draghi and Christine Lagarde, the president-nominee support the Quantitative Easing and it leads euro's diving.

Both of them support their currency down, it makes the trend uncertain.

Though Powell's comments and FOMC's release on July 31 make greenback to plunge, the appearance of the weak dollar trend is not certain, yet.

The daily chart of currency pair, eur/usd shows the attempt of euro's rising, making support line higher. It seem that the currency pair changes its trend to upward.

The signals from the different sources don't indicate the same. And the price moves up and down in the narrow band.

We need to watch the market more carefully.






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[EUR] Powell's hint 2019 0711

cf. [EUR] Waiting FOMC  2019 0619
cf. [EUR] Economy news and Forex  2019 0514

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the possible Federal Funds Rate cut in the month in Congressional testimony on Wednesday. News media reported Fed Chair Powell spoke 'Uncertainty' twenty-six times while his testimony and worried recession.

His speaking affected U.S. market and S&P 500 hit 3000 for the first time in the market and led dollar down.

Market participants got a hint of benchmark rate cut from his statement and expect 25bp cut in the late July.

Only U.S. economy enjoys Goldilocks and euro zone, British and Asian's situation are under the pressure of recession. It supports strong dollar though Powell's hint. Economy analysts worry U.S. economy may pass the peak.

ECB President Mario Draghi hinted the Quantitative Easing before and it led euro's diving. Christine Lagarde,the president-nominee of the European Central Bank, is also in favor of quantitative easing.

After Powell's testimony in U.S. Congress and release of FOMC meeting minutes lead dollar down in Asian forex market. EUR/USD, one of the major currency pair broke through 120 exponential moving average.







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