[EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Preparing Rebound II 2019 1126
cf. [EUR] Preparing Rebound 2019 1124
cf. [USDX] Still Rising Greenback 2019 1122

The euro is likely to move to either side within a few weeks.

This is because the euro is moving between a narrowing resistance and support line. The movement of the euro is decreasing, which can be interpreted as the accumulation of energy.

But it seems strongly euro to fall after touching 1.1018, 120 exponential moving average in one-hour chart.

But long-term trend is still downward, we need to watch the market with short bias.

If it exceeds the downtrend line made in weekly chart, it could rise over 1.1199 or upper band of Bollinger Bands, and it may reach to 1.1386, 120 exponential moving average.

Donald Trump, U.S. President signed the Hong Kong Human Right Act on Wednesday, and China has a big backlash. The small deal between economy top two is likely to be difficult.

Thus, the dollar will move with US Treasury yields, and the euro and euro-FX will move accordingly.

The currency pair EUR/USD is 1.1010 and futures, euro-FX 201912 is 1.10210 as of 04:09(UTC).


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[EUR] Preparing Rebound II 2019 1126

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Preparing Rebound 2019 1124
cf. [USDX] Still Rising Greenback 2019 1122
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro under the Downward Trend 2019 1115
cf. [USDX] Rising Dollar 2019 1109
cf. [USDX] Trying Rebound 2019 1104

Euro fell on Monday but it tries to rebound. It is still under the downward trend but it can rise in short or mid term.

First, if it exceeds the downtrend line made in weekly chart, it could rise over 1.1199 or upper band of Bollinger Bands, and it may reach to 1.1386, 120 exponential moving average.

There is another downtrend line, which falls to 1.2140. But I don't think euro rise above 1.21s in mid term. Because euro-zone economy doesn't show the optimistic outlook, yet.

As mentioned before, euro including currency pair EUR/USD and futures, euro-fx 201912 tries to form double-bottoms pattern, trend-turning-to-rise pattern.

There is a support line, too. Though euro falls, it is supported around 1.1097, I think.

Euro fell and dollar rose on Monday and dollar index was 98.308, 0.06 percent rise.

The expectation of U.S.-Sino small deal led greenback's rising.

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[EUR] Preparing Rebound 2019 1124

EUR/USD weekly chart, source: FXDD.com

cf. [USDX] Still Rising Greenback 2019 1122
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro under the Downward Trend 2019 1115
cf. [USDX] Rising Dollar 2019 1109
cf. [USDX] Trying Rebound 2019 1104


U.S. dollar is under the influence of U.S.-Sino trade talks. As it seems not to be succeeded in this year, safe-haven asset gets momentum and greenback rises against other currencies except Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc.

The uncertain view about small deal makes investors to hesitate to buy risky asset.

Euro zone economy still doesn't work well, and the growth of companies in euro zone are still at a standstill. It burdens euro and makes dollar to rise.

A Forex strategist at UBS said, the combination of U.S. economy and euro zone's led greenback's rising.

And analysts at Danske Banks, expect the euro to trade at low levels for an extended period considering the indication of the Federal Reserve that would be on hold for now and the resilience in EUR/USD to global news.

Danske Banks team think, the US economy remains on a stronger footing than the euro area economy, and in the euro area, the manufacturing sector is under pressure from weak global investment activity due to the trade war, Brexit and weak global growth.

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD was 1.1022 end of the last week according to FXStree.com and euro futures at CME, Euro-FX 201912 or 6EZ19 finished the week recording 1.10340.

USDX, dollar index, dollar's value against the basket of major six currencies rose 0.26 percent to 98.25.

In weekly chart, currency pair EUR/USD is still under the downward trend line. And it failed to break through middle band of Bollinger Bands.

But we can find that euro prepares the rebound carefully in weekly chart. The support line is made as well as the downward trend line, and it tries to build double-bottoms pattern, trend-changing pattern.

There are two main downward trend line made in the monthly chart and the weekly chart, respectively. And it is hard to guess trend-turning to upward trend but we may expect euro's rising in short term, one-hour and four-hour chart.


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[USDX] Still Rising Greenback 2019 1122

Dollar Index, four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

[USDX] Still Rising Greenback 2019 1122

cf. [EUR] Rising Euro under the Downward Trend 2019 1115
cf. [USDX] Rising Dollar 2019 1109
cf. [USDX] Trying Rebound 2019 1104

U.S. dollar is under the influence of U.S.-Sino trade talks. As it seems not to be succeeded in this year, safe-haven asset gets momentum and greenback rises against other currencies except Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc.

The uncertain view about small deal makes investors to hesitate to buy risky asset.

And the Hong Kong issue affects Forex market, too. As tension between top 2 economy entities rises because of Hong Kong issue, greenback's price rises, too.

Hong Kong media,  the South China Morning Post reported, China watches Donald Trump’s response to US Hong Kong bill as it threatens to become new barrier to trade deal.

Euro zone economy still doesn't work well, it burdens euro and makes dollar to rise.

Number one economy entity in euro zone, German economy showed that. German Flash Manufacturing PMI recorded 43.8 higher than expected 42.9, but German Flash Services PMI hit 51.3 worse than expected 52.0 and previous 51.6.

It made greenback to rise high, and Dollar Index, greenback's price against six currencies' basket reached 98.4 and 98.0 as of 09:30(UTC).

In the technical analytic view, USDX in four-hour chart rises breaking through middle band and reaching upper band. It doesn't fall below middle band and upward trend line, and it seems to keep a upward trend.









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[EUR] 매도적 관점이 유효한 유로화 2019 1120

cf. [EUR] Rising Euro under the Downward Trend 2019 1115
cf. [EUR] Falling Euro 2019 1113
cf. [USDX] Rising Dollar 2019 1109
cf. [EUR] Facing Resistance Line 2019 1103
cf. [USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030
cf. [EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024


외환시장을 비롯한 글로벌 금융시장의 큰 관심사는 미중 무역협상 타결 여부일 것입니다.

지난 10월 미국과 중국 간의 1단계 무역분쟁 협상이 타결될 것이란 소식이 전해지면서 금융시장에는 훈풍이 불었습니다만, 타결 가능성 여부가 불투명해지면서 외환시장에서는 뚜렷한 방향을 아직 찾지 못하는 모습입니다.

미중 간 무역협상 타결 여부에 회의감이 투자자들 사이에 자리하면서, 미국 현지시각으로 18일, 달러는 주요통화에 대해 하락했습니다. 유로/달러 통화쌍은 현재 1.1077를 기록하고 있고, 유로화 선물 12월물은 1.10965에서 조정중입니다.

또 미국의 CNBC는 미국과 중국간의 무역협상이 비관적이라고 보도했는데, 중국 정부는 도널드 트럼프 미국 대통령이 기존 관세의 철회에 대해 부인한 이후 미국과 무역합의에 대한 베이징의 분위기가 비관적이라고 보도했다고, 연합 인포맥스는 보도했습니다.

이는 당분간 안전자산으로서의 달러 수요를 부르기 보다는 달러에 부담을 줄 것으로 보입니다.

글로벌 금융위기가 닥쳤을 때 미국의 달러화는 안전자산으로서 폭발적인 수요를 불렀지만, 미중간 무역분쟁에서는 달러가 그 당사자가 되면서 협상 타결 가능성에 따라, 투자자들의 심리에 따라 등락을 거듭하는 실정입니다.

올해 들어 달러는 같은 재료를 놓고서 시장 참여자들의 당시 심리에 따라 정반대의 움직임을 보이고 있는 만큼 좀더 신중하게 시장을 바라볼 필요가 있겠습니다. 아울러 유로화는 달러에 대해 위험자산으로 분류되는 만큼 달러와 반대 움직임을 보인다는 점을 다시 한 번 상기해야겠습니다.

한편 지난 18일 트럼프 대통령과 미국 연방준비제도 의장 제롬 파월이 백악관에서 회동했다는 소식이 전해지면서 달러는 약세를 보였습니다. 파월 의장이 비둘기적 조치를 취하면서 금융시장이 상승세를 띨 것이라는 기대감 때문이었습니다.

트럼프 대통령은 트윗을 통해 "기본 금리, 마이너스 금리, 저 인플레이션, 완화, 달러 강세와 이것이 제조업에 미치는 영향, 중국·유럽연합(EU)과의 무역 등 모든 것을 논의했다"고 말했습니다.

하지만 단기적으로는 이런 뉴스들이 유로에 힘을 보태겠지만 장기적으로 유로존 경제가 살아나지 못하고 있어 유로화에 대한 매수 관점은 아직까진 유보할 필요가 있습니다.

단기적으로는 유로화가 달러에 대해 반등하겠지만, 기본 체력이 받쳐주지 못하는 만큼 유로는 여전히 하락 압력에서 자유롭지 못하기 때문입니다.

유로/달러 주간차트에서 유로화는 여전히 하락 추세선 아래에서 움직이고 있고 추세선 돌파 가능성도 아직 회의적입니다.

기술적인 면에서 볼 때 앞서 형성된 이중천장 패턴에 따른 가격 하락은 끝났고, 유로화는 새로운 추세를 모색하고 있습니다.

주간차트에서 하락추세선을 돌파하려는 움직임을 보이고 있지만, 단번에 추세선이 돌파되는 경우가 거의 없다는 점을 상기하면 유로화에는 매도적 시각이 여전히 유효합니다.

하지만 단기적으로는 상승 모멘텀이 살아있는 만큼 투자자 각자의 스타일에 따라 매매를 결정하시면 되겠습니다.

----------------------
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[EUR] Rising Euro under the Downward Trend 2019 1115

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Falling Euro 2019 1113
cf. [USDX] Rising Dollar 2019 1109
cf. [EUR] Facing Resistance Line 2019 1103
cf. [USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030
cf. [EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024

The skepticism about the small deal of U.S.-Sino trade war grew and the risky asset retreated on Thursday and Friday. And political issues in Hong Kong and Latin America led safe-haven asset such as Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc up.

Yonhap Infomax reported a Forex strategy director said that negative situation in Hong Kong and Latin America's confusion moved the market negatively.

And disappointing economy score in emerging markets, Australia and Japan pressed investors sentiment.

U.S. Treasury yield continued to fall this week and dollar weakened. But greenback's price was higher than euro.

And some analysts show dollar-long outlook end of the year. When investors close the book, they may buy dollar because the U.S. interest rate is high relatively and U.S. economy is stronger than other economy entities, Younhap Infomax reported.

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD is 1.10331 and futures, euro fx-201912 or 6EZ19 is 1.10535 as of as of 12:55(UTC), Friday. Euro tries to rebound but it is under downward trend line.

In daily chart and four-hour chart, double-tops pattern is still explicitly shown. This is a typical price-down pattern. And euro failed to break through the resistance line and downward trend line.

But euro tries to rebound and to turn the trend again. In one-hour chart, euro broke through 120 EMA and it reached upper band of Bollinger Band in four-hour chart. Euro in four-hour chart tries to reach 120 EMA, too.

We need to watch the chart carefully. Because euro rises technically but there is no explicit signal of soft landing of Europe economy yet.

And it is still valid to watch the market with short bias.

Gjallarhorn had a short position and it was liquidated.






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[EUR] Falling Euro 2019 1113

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [USDX] Rising Dollar 2019 1109
cf. [EUR] Facing Resistance Line 2019 1103
cf. [USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030
cf. [EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024

Donald Trump, the U.S. President's address on Tuesday didn't satisfied market's need about the U.S.-Sino trade talks. After his speech, market participants prospects the trade talk carefully and it called safe-haven asset such as Japanese yen and greenback.

Dollar index, greenback's price against six-currencies basket rose 0.12 percent to 98.329. The uncertainty about the trade war lowered euro. Currency pair, EUR/USD is 1.1005 and futures in CME, euro FX-201912, 6EZ19 1.10260 as of 08:00(UTC)

In daily chart and four-hour chart, double-tops pattern is explicitly shown. This is a typical price-down pattern. And euro failed to break through the resistance line and downward trend line. And there isn't any trend-turning signal yet.

And it is vaild to watch the market with short bias.









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[USDX] Rising Dollar 2019 1109

Dollar Index four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

cf. [USDX] Trying Rebound 2019 1104
cf. [EUR] Facing Resistance Line 2019 1103
cf. [USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030

The small deal of the U.S.-Sino trade war is not clear yet. Donald Trump, the U.S. President spoke nothing is agreed about tariff withdrawal and over-shooting from the expectation the agreement of small deal calmed down. As the first step of the agreement is not clear, market is cautious of risky asset such as emerging market's currencies.

And U.S. dollar fell against safe-haven asset Japanese yen, rose against euro.

A strategist of ACLS spoke, investors and traders bought greenback as trade war between top 2 economy entities seemed to be deteriorated and now buy dollar due to the expectation of trade-tension relaxation and the U.S. economy's soft landing.

Analysts at MUFG Bank see more gains ahead of the US dollar as stronger economic data highlights that fears over a sharp slowdown in the United States and recent weakness are overdone.

But dollar and dollar index, price of greenback against the basket of major six currencies will move up by restrained range, some economists analyse.

Younhap Infomax reported on Saturday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch(BofAML) expected optimism to dollar will disappear after all. Because trade tension will moderate and global economy rebound. BofAML is still optimistic about economy and they anticipate dollar down in next year.

Dollar Index, USDX is 98.37 at the end of week and keeps upward trend. Four-hour chart of dollar index rebounded at the bottom of 97.18. If it succeeds to rise, the double-bottom pattern is built. And it supports dollar index upward.

Greenback still appeals but we need to keep in mind rising economic optimism. The recovery of global economy means weak dollar and strong emerging market's currencies.








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[GBP] Correction or Trend turning? 2019 1106

GBP/USD daily chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [GBP] Rising Sterling 2019 1018

EU President Jean Claude Juncker spoke England would leave EU on next January 31 and no more deal. English voted to Brexit in the referendum in 2016, but Brexit isn't yet. And the general election of England is hold on December 12.

Market has worried 'No Deal Brexit' but English Premier Boris Johnson lowered the risk of No-Deal. It supported sterling.

British benchmark interest rate, Official Bank Rate is release tomorrow. It is 0.75 percent and market participants expect it frozen.

Ahead of the meeting of Bank of England and the release of Official Bank Rate, Currency pair GBP/USD moves steady. It is 1.2876 as of 12:30(UTC).

But currency pair tries to build double-tops pattern in the daily chart. The pattern implies price falling. The price of pair rebounded since August and it's natural to think the correction.

GBP/USD has risen and faces 120 EMA(exponential moving average), which does as a resistance line. British pound tries to break through the resistance line but it doesn't succeed yet.

Easing no-deal Brexit risk supports sterling, but British economy is not as good as United States'. It seems that sterling will be corrected at 120 EMA.





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[USDX] 반등을 노리는 달러화 2019 1105

Dollar Index, four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

cf. [USDX] Trying Rebound 2019 1104
cf. [EUR] Facing Resistance Line 2019 1103
cf. [USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030
cf. [EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro after Correction 2019 1021

미-중 무역 갈등이 스몰 딜 타결로 새로운 국면을 맞이할 것으로 보이고, 영국 초미의 관심사인 노딜 브렉시트 가능성도 점차 낮아지고 있다. 미 연방준비제도 의장 제롬 파월은 당분간 기준금리 인하는 없을 것이라고 시사했다.

이러한 소식들로 달러는 혼잡 구간에 머물고 있으며, 6개 통화바스켓에 대한 달러의 가치를 나타내는 달러 인덱스는 4일 21시 현재 97.33을 가리키고 있다.

뚜렷한 방향성을 보이고 있지 않아 앞으로 달러 인덱스 향방에 대해 상승과 하락에 대한 의견이 갈리고 있는 형편이다.

지난 주에 발표된 미국의 비농업 분야 고용변화는 12만 8000명 증가를 보인데 비해 유로존의 경제상황은 여전히 암담한 실정이라 달러 가치는 상승하고 있다.

달러 인덱스의 4시간 차트에서 달러는 비농업 분야 고용변화 실적에 힘입어 단기 구간에서 저점인 97.18에서 반등했다. 반등에 성공해 상승세를 이어간다면 가격 반전 상승 패턴인 이중 바닥 패턴이 형성되고 달러 인덱스 추세가 우상향을 나타날 것임을 시사한다.

달러는 다른 통화에 비해 여전히 매력적이다.







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[USDX] Trying Rebound 2019 1104

Dollar Index, four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

cf. [EUR] Facing Resistance Line 2019 1103
cf. [USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030
cf. [EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro after Correction 2019 1021

U.S.-Sino trade war seems to shift by signing the small deal agreement, and no-deal Brexit risk lowered. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested there wouldn't be more benchmark-interest-rate cut for a while.

These news put dollar in mixed state. Dollar Index, dollar price against the basket composed of six currencies is 97.33 13:00(UTC).

An analyst predicts greenback or dollar index slides step by step. Another expects the rebound of dollar index.

Non-farm Payroll released in last week surprised investors with 128-thousand increasing, but euro-zone economy is still in hard landing. Greenback gains.

Four-hour chart of dollar index rebounds at the bottom of 97.18. If it succeeds to rise, the double-bottom pattern is built. And it supports dollar index upward.

Greenback still appeals.







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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, USDX, dollar index, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 달러, 달러인덱스

[EUR] Facing Resistance Line 2019 1103

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [USDX] Ahead of Fed Decision 2019 1030
cf. [EUR] Euro in Correction 2019 1024
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro after Correction 2019 1021

Non-farm Payroll released on Friday hit 128-thousand increasing higher than expected 90-thousand increasing. It led New York stock market up and Treasury note down, and greenback was in mixed.

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD fell a bit due to positive Non-farm payroll. Non-farm payroll showed U.S. economy is still good comparing euro zone and devalued euro.

Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC cut the benchmark interest rate 25bp and Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke there wouldn't be rate cut for a while, and currency goods of USDX, currency pair, futures and etc. fell against other currencies.

Mixed economy prospect put greenback in steady. USDX, dollar index hits 97.21, currency pair EUR/USD is 1.11634 and euro FX-2019 12 or 6EZ19 is 1.11965 at the end of last week.

Goldilocks in U.S. shows its termination with bad economy indices step by step. Advance GDP in third quarter hit 1.9 percent below 2.0 percent. But other economy equities have worse record than the United Sates. One of G2, China loses economy energy scoring 6.0 percent of GDP in third quarter historical low in 27 years. Euro zone is still under 1.0s percent GDP growth.

Greenback still appeals.

Currency pair EUR/USD faces the long-term downward trend line which began one year ago. The trend line seems to be a resistance line and will be broken through at one go. There will be several tries of exceeding the resistance line though euro rises.

Four-hour chart of the currency pair attempts to build the double-tops pattern which implies price down.

Positive U.S. economy and euro zone preparing Quantitative Easing support strong dollar and euro which facing the resistance line will fall.








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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화