[JPY] 코로나바이러스 영향과 주추세선 2020 0131

cf. [JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0130
cf. [JPY] Rising Expected after Correction 2020 0126
cf. [USDX] Before Facing the Resistance 2020 0119

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[JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0130

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Rising Expected after Correction 2020 0126
cf. [USDX] Before Facing the Resistance 2020 0119

Safe-haven currency pair USD/JPY has fallen. The downward trend seems to be continued in short term but it may try to rebound on the upward support line about 108.2x.

The pair builds a trend-turning pattern gradually but it is expected to be failed. It means safe-haven Yen's value rises.

If the pair succeed to rise, it will reach 109.37, 120 exponential moving average in four-hour chart testing the surpass the 120 EMA as resistance line.

World wide fear from respiratory coronavirus makes investors' risk-off, buying dollar and more Japanese yen.

But yen doesn't surge as risky euro plunges against greenback. Currency pair EUR/USD fell 0.14 percent but USD/JPY just rose 0.03 percent on Wednesday.

The anxiety materials in the global economy has encouraged investors to buy yen as safety-haven asset. But this respiratory virus doesn't enough.

Japanese experts explain that the epidemic makes euro to plunge and falling euro restrains yen's rising. But yen may surge when the virus spreads more.

When virus fear is soothed, the risky assets will be gained and the price of yen down.

Meanwhile the Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged 1.50~1.75 percent on Wednesday as expected. Fed kept its stance.

Gjallarhorn keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. It is under the big loss.

Gjallarhorn produces the report of risky currencies with Long bias now because it has Long Position of EUR.


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[EUR] Coronavirus and Euro 2020 0129

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Rising Expected after Correction 2020 0126
cf. [EUR] Edge by Two Trendlines 2020 0124
cf. [EUR] Rebounding after Correction  2020 0123
cf. [USDX] Before Facing the Resistance 2020 0119

Falling euro rebounded yesterday. It tries rebounding on the support line. Some strategists think the scare of spreading pneumonia is soothed and risky-off positions are decreased.

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD is 1.1010 and futures, euro FX, 6EH20 in CME is 1.10435 as of 05:23(UTC).

The support line is found around 1.099 in four-hour chart of EUR/USD and 1.1033 in daily chart of futures, Euro FX, 6EH20. Falling euro succeeded to rebound above the support price band.

It isn't uncertain keeping rebound but it seems to be above the support line.

Euro as well as other risky asset will move by the news of respiratory coronavirus from Wuhan, China. And it is better to watch the global news about coronavirus spread. Though there are bad news to euro, the currency is more affected by

And FOMC meeting is planned this week. FOMC decide its benchmark interest rate at 17:00(UTC) Wednesday. Market participants expect the rate will be frozen, maximum 1.75 percent.

There are two major trend lines in weekly chart. One is upward and the other is downward. Upward support line is built since December 2016, and the other since September 2018. Two long-term trend line will soon meet each other and this event makes momentum very actively.

Gjallarhorn keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. It is under the big loss.

Gjallarhorn produces the report of EURO with Long bias now because it has Long Position of EUR.

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[JPY] Rising Expected after Correction 2020 0126

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Edge by Two Trendlines 2020 0124
cf. [EUR] Rebounding after Correction  2020 0123
cf. [USDX] Before Facing the Resistance 2020 0119

Currency pair USD/JPY is expected to fall in short-term but will rebound breaking through 120 exponential moving average line.

The pair closed at 109.27 this week and it is near 120 EMA in weekly chart.

And the pair could be supported at 108.82, 120 EMA.

External materials out of currency market have shown the supporting Japanese Yen, JPY rather than greenback. But the trend line shows Japanese yen has slid gradually since last August.

The trade war and the military tension in last year and early this year lifted yen, but it did as a correction in currency pair USD/JPY.

Another external material, respiratory virus, corona virus from Wuhan, China threatens the financial markets as well as people around the world. It drops asset value of equities, commodities and risky currencies.

When virus fear is soothed, the risky assets will be gained and the price of yen down.

Gjallarhorn still keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. It is under the big loss.


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[EUR] Edge by Two Trendlines 2020 0124

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Rebounding after Correction  2020 0123
cf. [USDX] Before Facing the Resistance 2020 0119
cf. [EUR] Euro to Rise Hoping Upward Trend  2020 0116
cf. Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise  2019 1230

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD keeps falling and it is 1.1032 as of 11:20(UTC), and currency futures in CME, euro fx or 6EH20 falls to 1.1066 now.

Unlike the previous anticipation, euro keeps downward. And we need to watch whether it is supported by the support line made since late 2016.

There are two major trendlines in weekly chart. One is upward and the other is downward. Upward support line is built since December 2016, and the other since September 2018. Two long-term trend line will soon meet each other and this event makes momentum very actively.

Though it is supported by upward trendline, it is restrained by downward trendline, and the price jumped up or down.

As well as the technical analysis, we need to be interested in global news. As the year began, the United States and Iran made the military tension US killing Iranian No. 2, Qassem Soleimani. It made safe-haven asset and oil price to surge. And another risk, corona virus from Wuhan, southern China affects the market, too. 26 Chinese were dead by this corona virus till now. The virus fear made dealers to buy dollar more and dollar price rises.

European Central Bank froze its key rate and decided to keep current policy on Thursday. As Christine Lagarde, president of ECB said, euro has the more possiblity of falling, euro fell.

Gjallarhorn keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. It is under the big loss.

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NR 2020 0124 1946 890 02 ID 931 R1 111 BT

NR 2020 0124 1946 890 02 ID 931 R1 111 BT 111 1037 989  110 1072 1048 800 R 111 927 357 324 334  214 R 931 944 111 945 999

NR 2020 0124 1333 890 ID 931 R1 001 BT

NR 2020 0124 1333 890 ID 931 R1 001 BT 111 147 2020 0123 928 931 0001 313 333 999

[EUR] Rebounding after Correction 2020 0123

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [USDX] Before Facing the Resistance 2020 0119
cf. [EUR] Euro to Rise Hoping Upward Trend  2020 0116
cf. [GBP] Short-term Downward Trend 2020 0113
cf. Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise  2019 1230

Euro is trapped between support line and downward trend line. The support line in short-term act as a resistance line.

After the correction, one of major currency pair, EUR/USD is expected to exceed upper band of Bollinger Bands in one-hour chart and four-hour chart in order. But it may take time to reach 1.12.

One of major currency pair, EUR/USD moved with steady pace. Virus fear from Wuhan, China dropped euro and new expectation to ECB led by new president, Christine Lagarde supported euro.

And European Central Bank kept its benchmark rate, Main Refinancing Rate 0.0 percent on Thursday.

Gjallarhorn keeps long position of euro in CME. The profitable position turned into a loss.

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NR 2020 0119 1353 890 02 ID 999 R1 001 127 147 BT

NR 2020 0119 1353 890 02 ID 999 R1 001 127 147 BT 001 202 210 R 001 127 902 324 334 240 834 0097 516 6200 828 R 901 001 920 0097 516 7000 001 930 314 334 K

[USDX] Before Facing the Resistance 2020 0119

USDX, four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

cf. [EUR] Euro to Rise Hoping Upward Trend  2020 0116
cf. [GBP] Short-term Downward Trend 2020 0113
cf. [USDX] Correction After Rising 2020 0111
cf. [EUR] Euro expected to Though Iranian Attack  2020 0109
cf. Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise  2019 1230


Dollar Index has broken through the downward trend line in four-hour chart, it was 97.62 on weekend.

To keep its upward trend, USDX should  exceed the previous peak 97.7x at first. Greenback's value against the basket of major six currencies, dollar index failed break through 97.8x since last December.

Dollar index kept rising due to the good economy records in the last week. Retail Sales and Housing index released last week showed US economy still kept soft landing. And economy top two, the United States and China signed the trade talks on last Wednesday. They supported greenback.

Euro zone economy begins to recover but the US's is better.

After the signing of US-Sino trade talks, market participants concern the next round, trade-tariff war between US and EU. An EU economy official criticized the first-tier signing between the US and China and made reference to retaliate if the US imposes the tariffs on European products. The anticipated trade tension made euro to fall 0.4 percent.

It would make dollar up and USDX rises exceeding 97.75.

Global economy was expected to support risky asset such as euro and pound. But still uncertain circumstance makes investors to hesitate their action.

Gjallarhorn keeps long position of euro in CME. The profitable position turned into a loss.

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NR 2020 0119 1002 890 01 ID 777 R1 117 127 845 BT

NR 2020 0119 1002 890 01 ID 999 R1 117 127 845 BT 801 0020 001 835 R 801 0021 081 326 147 137 903 510 0000 516 0001 512 R 801 0021 1000 800 049 116 903 0015 516 2000 R 801 0023 1245 800 111 137 903 0000 1330 800 111 326 906 R 801 0024 0830 800 049 108 158 128 903 0044 516 6000 0930 800 111 326 909 138 K

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[EUR] Euro to Rise Hoping Upward Trend 2020 0116

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [GBP] Short-term Downward Trend 2020 0113
cf. [USDX] Correction After Rising 2020 0111
cf. [EUR] Euro expected to Though Iranian Attack  2020 0109
cf. Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise  2019 1230

Currency pair EUR/USD touched above 1.1160 and futures Euro FX-202003, 6EH20 did above 1.12 on Wednesday. They try to break through previous peaks again.

And we can expect euro to rise and build upward trend in mid-and-short term.

Euro rises being supported the upward trend line which has been made since last late September in daily chart. And it broke through the long-term downward trend line build since 2018.

Euro is supported to Long bias. The pair is forecasted to touch 1.12 and euro-fx 1.1245. EUR/USD is 1.1166 as of 12:37(UTC).

Global economy supports risky asset such as euro and pound.

The US-Sino trade talks reached the agreement and signed on Wednesday. It is not complete ending of trade war between big two economy enties but financial markets welcomed the agreement. Stocks rose, and euro and pound, tool.


Gjallarhorn keeps long position of euro. Gjallarhorn deals futures.

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[GBP] Short-term Downward Trend 2020 0113

GBP/USD, four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [USDX] Correction After Rising 2020 0111
cf. [EUR] Euro expected to Though Iranian Attack  2020 0109
cf. Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise  2019 1230

British Pound fell and made the short-term downward trend. It is needed to watch with short bias.

One of major currency pair, GBP/USD is on the support line which was the resistance line in last November, but it is not certain the line does well.

Pound is trying to build Double-tops pattern in daily chart. It may be retreated to 1.2827 which is 120 exponential moving average and second support line.

In four-hour chart, the price tries to rebound on the support line, but it doesn't give strong trust. So we need to watch the chart whether pound is supported by price band of 1.29199 to 1.29650.

British GDP released on Monday was -0.3 percent and it was worse than expected growth 0.0 percent. It led sterling downward. The easing tension between the United States and Iran supported supported the risky asset and currencies. Euro rose due to it. But sterling failed to be supported because there is still Brexit risk. London decided to leave Europe in this month, it doesn't make clear British economy, yet.

Gjallarhorn has long position of euro. It records loss, now.


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[Gjallrhorn][USDX] 미-이란 군사적 갈등 진정에 달러 하락 예상 2020 0112

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[USDX] Correction After Rising 2020 0111

Dollar Index, four-hour chart, source:FXstreet.com

cf. [EUR] Euro expected to Though Iranian Attack  2020 0109
cf. [EUR] U.S. Attack and Euro's Hope to Rising  2020 0106
cf. Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise  2019 1230

Dollar Index or USDX, dollar's price against the basket of major six currencies lowers its peaks and is expected to drop in next week. USDX finished the week with 97.37 and is forecasted retreat to 96.5x, previous bottom.

Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday was worse than expected and previous record, and dollar index fell 0.06 percent to 97.37. It rose 0.5 percent in the week.

Non-Farm Employment Change in December was expected 162 thousands increasing which was 256 thousands in November. But it increased 145 thousands in last month.

Thought non-farm payrolls decreased, unemployment rate has kept 3.5 percent historical low in fifty years. It support the U.S. economy is still good.

The recent military tension between the United States and Iran boosted the price of safe-haven assets and oil. But US President Donald Trump and his counterpart remain cool, so military tension is entering a calming phase, and surged price retreat.

U.S. did airstrike to kill Iranian No. 2, Qassem Soleimani. And Iran has vowed retaliation.

Risk appetite is gradually recovering, and euro rose against greenback.

A Forex strategist said, Dollar-long position was still available but investors needed to watch whether it fades away.

The sign of first-step trade deal between top two economy entities is hold on next Wednesday, market participants expect.  It is reportedly, the first-step deal will support strong dollar.



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[EUR] Euro expected to Though Iranian Attack 2020 0109

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] U.S. Attack and Euro's Hope to Rising  2020 0106
cf. Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise  2019 1230

Euro builds double-tops pattern in the four-hour chart against dollar. The pattern implies the price-down and currency pair eur/usd is 1.1114 and futures, Euro FX, 2020-03 is 1.11605 as of 02:46(UTC).

Euro is expected to rebound at 1.107x in spot and 1.113x in the futures market, CME, because euro is supported at the price bands before and it is around mid-term upward trend line.

And the easing U.S.-Iranian military tension supports euro, too.

Though Iran's retaliation missile attack on the U.S.-Iraqi bases, Donald Trump, the U.S. President spoke U.S. would not retaliate again. After his speak, stock market rose.

U.S. did airstrike to kill Iranian No. 2, Qassem Soleimani. And Iran has vowed retaliation.

Gjallarhorn recommend to buy euro against greenback and to wait the rebound.


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[EUR] U.S. Attack and Euro's Hope to Rising 2020 0106

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise  2019 1230

One of the major currency euro is on the downward trend line and trying to break through it. It may rise after the correction.

Major currency pair, EUR/USD dropped but succeeded to rebound on the downward trend line, last Friday. It is 1.11664 as of 01:00(UTC) and futures 6EH20 is 1.12145 as of 01:00(UTC). Its price rises in Asian session but it is thought to meet the correction and all of spot and futures item could retreat to bottom band of Bollinger Bands and seems to rebound at 1.1118(eur/usd) and 1.1185(futures), support line in the daily chart.

Euro of currency pair and futures is expected to rise in the year. Euro built the triangle pattern and it rose above the right edge of triangle in the weekly chart. It shows that euro accumulates the momentum and will jump or plunge soon.

If it has rising momentum, it can rise to 120 exponential moving average at first.

But U.S. airstrike to kill Qasssem Soleimani, the Iranian general has made oil price and gold price to surge. And stocks in New York plunged. Dollar rose, too.

Iran has vowed revenge on the United States.

It seems that the rising military tension between the United States and Iran threatens the market and boost the price of gold and crude oil. Dollar Index, dollar's price against the basket of six major currencies could rise, too.

But external fact of military tension may affect on the market restrictively. Because the market is slowly recovering from the shock.

And the dealers in bullish bias on euro can keep their long bias and watch the entry spot when it rebound.

Gjallarhorn searches the entry point, now.



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