[EUR] Between the technical rebound and upward trend 2020 0226

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Expecting Euro Recovery 2020 0223
cf. [EUR] 기술적 반등, 유효한 매도적 관점 2020 0221 
cf. [EUR] Downward Trend Euro 2020 0215

Though the growing fear of nCoViD-19 outbreak, euro rose against dollar on Tuesday. US dollar fell against Japanese yen and euro. Euro retreats in Asian session but it seems technical correction against rising yesterday.

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD was supported on 120 exponential moving average in one-hour chart and 20 moving average in four-hour chart supported euro.

But nobody can say upward trend strongly. Euro doesn't break through 20 moving average in the daily chart, yet. We need to watch the chart more carefully. It is not recommended to have long bias to euro, yet. We need more signals, and the correction should be confirmed in four-hour chart at least.

If euro succeeds to keep rising, it will be tested of breaking-through 120 EMA, first. It is about 1.09s. After 120 EMA is broken as a resistance, we can expect exceeding the 1.0990s, previous support line.

And he expectation of Fed's cutting key rate pressed greenback. Futures market forecasts rate-cut 25bp at least in June. US benchmark interest rate band is 1.50~1.75 percent and higher than that in other major countries, such as Japan and EU.

Yonhap Infomax has reported that euro zone economy recovers slow pace actually. Analysts at Commerzbank said: "The euro may fall further on the dollar due to low volatility and sluggish Euro zone economic indicators, but as the dollar is overestimated, the decline will be limited," Yonhap Infomax reported, too.

As the number of respiratory patients increase, risk-off has been strengthened, and yen and Swiss franc rose. Dollar Index, greenback's price against currencies basket of major six countries faced 100 in three years, but it was in correction because market participants it rose too rapidly.

New York stock market was bearish, as Asian market was done. The fear of virus pandemic made S&P500 plunge for two days.

US economy media, CNBC reported, more 1 trillion dollars disappeared in S&P500 or 6.3 percent loss.

But the bearish US asset is temporary, some analysts think. Yonhap Infomax reported, if global growth is lowered, long greenback is still valid and the euro zone hardlanding risk and the coronavirus affecting make speculators' short betting on the short of euro.

Though Gjallarhorn says the careful prospect to Forex but it keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. The plunge in the euro makes big loss.

I acknowledge this report says downward trend of euro but I wish euro would surge.

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[EUR] Expecting Euro Recovery 2020 0223

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] 기술적 반등, 유효한 매도적 관점 2020 0221
cf. [EUR] Downward Trend Euro 2020 0215
cf. [EUR] Falling EUR 2020 0210

One of the major currency, euro succeeded to rise and reached to 1.0846 on Friday. The price of currency pair, EUR/USD broke through upper band of Bollinger Bands in four-hour chart. It retreated somewhat but it is still over the upper band. It makes traders expect euro's reach to 120 exponential moving average, 1.0909 in four-hour chart.

 However it is thought that the rebound is just technical recovery, as it is reported on 2020 0211(https://youtu.be/Inm3P7X_RHU) and the report, [EUR] Downward Trend Euro 2020 0215( https://www.facebook.com/240801172976250/posts/1242509689472055/?app=fbl).

Euro has rebounded technically in Asian session and fell more in Europe session or New York session recently.

The price of euro failed to break through 20 moving average clearly and it implied the fall of euro against dollar.

We need to watch the chart more carefully. It is not recommended to have long bias to euro, yet. We need more signals, and the correction should be confirmed in four-hour chart at least.

The positive economy records have supported US dollar though US-Sino Trade War in last year and respiratory coronavirus outbreak. But poor indices in February lowered greenback last Friday.

PMI in Euro zone signaled positive outlook. Flash Manufacturing PMI was 49.1 and Flash Services PMI was 52.8. They were predicted 47.4 and 52.4 respectively. They made euro up against dollar.

Yonhap Infomax reported that euro zone economy recovers slow pace actually. Analysts at Commerzbank said: "The euro may fall further on the dollar due to low volatility and sluggish Euro zone economic indicators, but as the dollar is overestimated, the decline will be limited," Yonhap Infomax reported, too.

Though Gjallarhorn says the careful prospect to Forex but it keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. The plunge in the euro makes big loss.

I acknowledge this report says downward trend of euro but I wish euro would surge.

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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른][EUR] 기술적 반등, 유효한 매도적 관점 2020 0221

[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른]FX마진이란 무엇인가 #4

[EUR] Downward Trend Euro 2020 0215

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Falling EUR 2020 0210

Euro which has recorded the multi-year low since April 2017, failed to rebound keeping falling on Friday. One of the major currency pair EUR/USD keeps falling and we need to watch the currency pair more carefully whether the pair is bought or sold.

Open Bollinger Bands implies the downward trend is kept in one-hour chart and four-hour chart for a while.

Major outlook for euro is still downward. Due to euro zone recession and nCoV outbreak, Gjallarhorn thinks.

Sliding euro has attempted the recovery but failed and it built the explicit downward trend line since February 1. For euro's succeeding trend-turning, it should break through 20 Moving Average or middle band of Bollinger Bands in four-hour chart of eur/usd or euro fx.

If it succeeds, we may expect the exceeding  upper band and 120 exponential moving average one by one. It is 1.09853, 120 EMA in four-hour chart of eur/usd and 1.10083 in four-hour chart of euro fx-2020 03.

A lot of economists, analysts and market participants watch euro downward trend.

Euro zone itself is under the recession. Euro zone, especially German economy is not good because the decreasing export by new Coronavirus outbreak from China. Outbreak of epidemic decreases all economy action in China.

German GDP stagnates at zero percent in 4th Quarter in 2019. German economy in trouble drags the euro further.

 ING's Francis Pesol Forex strategist said, "The euro will have a hard time rebounding against the dollar next week because there is a risk of disappointing economic indicators for the Euro zone next week." Dow Jones reported on Friday.

As US-Sino Trade War lowered euro price in last year, the fear of epidemic devalues euro, too. Scare of the disease rises, risk-off lowered euro. When the expectation of nCoV ending spreads in the market, they buys greenback selling euro. Anyway, euro falls.

Zero percent of key interest rate does, too. Very low interest rate has caused to sell euro and to buy relatively high yield currencies such as US dollar and Brazilian Real.

Euro-carry trade is anticipated and it lowers euro in the long term.

As you watch the chart and read this report, you can find that Gjallarhorn usually uses four-hour chart. Some traders may think the report is available in short term, another does in long term. The others will do in the mid term.

Though Gjallarhorn expect euro down but it keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. The plunge in the euro is serious about whether to dispose of the euro. To determine Stop loss is painful.

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[EUR] Falling EUR 2020 0210

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Rebounding euro II 2020 0204
cf. [EUR] Rebounding euro 2020 0201
cf. [EUR] Coronavirus and Euro 2020 0129

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD keeps falling and we need to watch the currency pair more carefully whether the pair is bought or sold.

Open Bollinger Bands implies the downward trend is kept in one-hour chart and four-hour chart for a while.

Surged euro retreated last week. Gjallarhorn expected recovery of  euro keeping its momentum, but it was incorrect analysis.

Also, we should watch the price of the pair reached bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. Below the trend line, there is possibility of rebound

Euro of FX Margin and futures is between two trend line of up and down and it is edge of two trend line. It's time to surge or plunge. But the recent geopolitical and economic news are very negative to euro.

The US Non-Farm Payrolls showed 225-thousand increasing on last Friday. The market anticipated 160-thousand increasing. Better record than forecasted boosted US dollar and lowered Japanese yen and euro.

The nCoV(new coronavirus) outbreak has threatened risky asset such as crude oil and euro. And euro plunged being contrary to expectation of euro-up.

As scare of epidemic is soothed, investors' risk-off is eased, too. But euro is still under the downward pressure. Aussie, Kiwi and the other risky currencies rose but euro still falls.

Euro zone economy is dependent of the export to China, but the recession risk of China leads euro to plunge, some economists analyse.

Medical experts forecast this nCoV will spread for month. It is very unfamiliar to euro.

As you watch the chart and read this report, you can find that Gjallarhorn usually uses four-hour chart. Some traders may think the report is available in short term, another does in long term. The others will do in the mid term.

Gjallarhorn keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. It is still under the loss and is concerned to worry Stop Loss seriously.

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[JPY] Fear Easing and Yen Falling 2020 0205

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0130
cf. [JPY] Rising Expected after Correction 2020 0126

The currency pair USD/JPY is supported by the mild upward trend line built since last August and it succeeded to recover on the support line. The currency pair rises since Monday and is 109.43 as of 03:00(GMT). Rising pair means strong US dollar and falling Japanese Yen.

Currency pair is in correction, one-hour chart and four-hour chart in Asian session, but it is expected to keep its upward trend, weak Yen.

Forex market is moved by external news, the respiratory corona virus outbreak from Wuhan, China. As the fear of pandemic is soothed, market participants stopped risk-off and began to buy risky asset. And Aussie and dollar rose, but yen and Swiss Franc fell.

As the news of Chinese government's financial measures is reported, risky currencies rebounded on Tuesday. On the other hand Yen fell.

As you watch the chart and read this report, you can find that Gjallarhorn usually uses four-hour chart. Some traders may think the report is available in short term, another does in long term. The others will do in the mid term.

Gjallarhorn keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. It is still under the loss.

Gjallarhorn produces the report of risky currencies with Long bias now because it has Long Position of EUR.

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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른]FX마진이란 무엇인가 #3

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

[EUR] Rebounding euro II 2020 0204

cf. [EUR] Rebounding euro 2020 0201
cf. [EUR] Coronavirus and Euro 2020 0129


Surged euro in last week retreated on Monday.  Currency pair EUR/USD is 1.10581 as of 04:08(GMT) and futures, 6EH20(liquidated in March) is 1.10870.

It seems that euro which rose last Friday keeps its momentum though there is some correction, Gjallarhorn expects.

Euro of FX Margin and futures is between two trend line of up and down and it is edge of two trend line. It's time to surge or plunge. The chart seems to tell rising.

It doesn't seem to fall and it is expected to try breaking through 120 exponential moving average and the downward trend line. Because it exceeded two meaningful resistance lines, 120 EMA and downward trend line in the last week.

The downward trend line which is build since September 2018 is tried to be broken through from last December. And we need to watch the market with long bias in short-and-mid term or till it reaches to 1.12.

 If the currency pair reaches 1.12, it just faces upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. It has more margin of rising to 1.1316, 120 exponential moving average.

The dollar rose and euro fell on Monday by the positive U.S. economy signal. The ISM manufacturing index for January showed an uptick to 50.9, beating expectations of 48.5. A reading above 50 in the ISM index indicates an expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for about 12% of the U.S. economy.

 After the armistice of trade war between top two economy entities, the United States and China, new respiratory coronavirus from Wuhan, China threatens the global economy. As Gjallarhorn has told, Forex market moved by the news of respiratory coronavirus outbreak. And it is better to watch the global news about coronavirus spread. Though there were bad news to euro, the currency has been more affected by virus news.

 The news of its outbreak called the risk-off, and the investors buy risky asset as the fear of the virus is soothed.

Some analysts think weak Chinese yuan leads euro down because the yuan is the largest part of the basket in determining the value of the European Central Bank's trade-weighted Euro index.

As you watch the chart and read this report, you can find that Gjallarhorn usually uses four-hour chart. Some traders may think the report is available in short term, another does in long term. The others will do in the mid term.

Gjallarhorn keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. It is still under the loss.

Gjallarhorn produces the report of risky currencies with Long bias now because it has Long Position of EUR.
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[Gjallarhorn]FX마진이란 무엇인가 #2

[EUR] Rebounding euro 2020 0201

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Coronavirus and Euro 2020 0129
cf. [JPY] Rising Expected after Correction 2020 0126
cf. [EUR] Edge by Two Trendlines 2020 0124

One of the major currency, EUR/USD reached the downward trend line and 20 Moving Average in the daily chart at the end of the week. The pair has kept falling since the month but it succeeded to rebound in the week.

Euro surged on Friday and it seems to keep its momentum in next week. Though there is some correction, euro rise, Gjallarhorn expects.

Euro of FX Margin and futures is between two trend line of up and down and it is edge of two trend line. It's time to surge or plunge. The chart seems to tell rising.

If the currency pair reaches 1.12, it just faces upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. It has more margin of rising to 1.1316, 120 exponential moving average.

As Gjallarhorn has told, Forex market moved by the news of respiratory coronavirus outbreak from Wuhan, China. And it is better to watch the global news about coronavirus spread. Though there were bad news to euro, the currency has been more affected by virus news.

On Friday, however, the fear of pneumonia form Wuhan drastically raised euro. It was the opposite of the response so far. Yonhap Infomax, economy news agency reported that euro rose against dollar 0.53 percent on the day. And safe-haven currency Japanese yen and Swiss Franc rose against greenback.

But some analysts think this euro rising doesn't mean trend turning. The scare of spreading respiratory virus makes market participants to do risk-off buying US dollar, Japanese yen,Swiss Franc and gold.

As mentioned above, Gjallarhorn expects the euro to rise to at least 1.12, upper band of Bollinger Bands in daily chart and weekly chart.

Gjallarhorn keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. It is still under the loss despite notwithstanding the rebound.

Gjallarhorn produces the report of risky currencies with Long bias now because it has Long Position of EUR.

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