[EUR] EUR May Rise in Short and Mid-term 2020 0601

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Unstable Rebounding of Euro  2020 0523
cf. [EUR] Euro Retreats 2020 0522
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro II 2020 0513
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro 2020 0511
cf. [EUR] Retreating Euro 2020 0505

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD rose breaking through 20 Moving Average in the weekly chart last week. And the euro broke 1.10 and 1.11 against the dollar in turn.

The strong rising over 20 MA can give the clue of deciding the upward trend. Euro kept rising against US dollar repeating the correction last week.

The price of euro exceeded 120 exponential moving average and the downward trend line in the daily chart and the four-hour chart, and it supports traders and investors to get the long bias on euro.

But the currency pair doesn't face 120 exponential moving average and upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart, yet. We need to watch the market more carefully before taking the seat of the upward trend of euro in the long term.

Meanwhile Fed Chair Jerome Powell showed his negative economy growth and denied the possible negative benchmark interest rate last month. His prospect may support dollar, but greenback fell in May.

The Sino-American Tension from the national security law on Hong Kong threatened the market. The U.S. President Donald Trump spoke that Hong Kong would lost its special treatment because Beijing decided to make the law of restrain the freedom of Hong Kong. But he didn't show the active measures and market participants got the risky assets.

But the market participants scare the tension between the top two economy entities. If the tension is intensified, they  will sell the risky assets and take the risk-off. Then greenback and Japanese Yen will rise.

The expectation of the global-economy recovery, the recovery package  of Euro Zone and the vaccine against Coronavirus has supported the risky assets such as euro.

There are regular big events in the week.

ECB releases its benchmark interest rate, Main Refinancing Rate and the press conference is planned on Thursday. One of the effective Forex events, Non-farm Payrolls is released as well as the Unemployment Claims of the United States in this late week.

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of futures, euro-FX. It is liquidated in September.
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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른]FX마진이란 무엇인가 #12 - FX마진의 특성: 레버리지, 24시간 열리는 시장

[EUR] Unstable Rebounding of Euro 2020 0523

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Euro Retreats 2020 0522
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro II 2020 0513
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro 2020 0511
cf. [EUR] Retreating Euro 2020 0505

The one of the major currency pair, EUR/USD failed its two goals. The currency pair didn't exceed 20 Moving Average in the weekly chart and failed to break through 1.10 level.

It exceeded 1.10 temporarily but it slid again below 1.09. EUR/USD touched the bottom band and slid along the band in the four-hour chart. Euro rebounded above 1.0877 which was the peak in mid May, but it is not uncertain to rally again in the next week.

We are able to confirm that euro is supported on the support line against dollar in the weekly chart. And we gain the long bias of euro.

Euro could fall again next week below the previous peaks but it would rebound again.

In the technical analysis, it is recommended to buy euro. There aren't an explicit patterns and signals, and it is better just to watch the market till the entry signal is shown keeping long bias.

Fed has cut its benchmark interest rate near to zero. But the market expects Fed may cut the Federal Funds Rate to negative rate. though Jerome Powell spoke he didn't guess the negative interest rate.

Its possibility is low, yet. Futures of Federal Funds Rate has some 20 percent of the negative rate. But Bank of England supports its negative rate, Fed cannot help considering BoE's plan.

Meanwhile the diplomatic conflict as well as economy conflict between top two economy entities support the strong dollar. The United States and China clashed with the trade, and it burdened the global financial market in the last year. While the Covid-19 pandemic, top two clash again. As China plans to make the national security law to Hong Kong, the US blames China and warns the retaliation. China does against the United States, too.

It raised greenback on Friday.

A forex expert said, the current foreign exchange market moved under the risk-off scenario and dollar rose, economy news agency Yonhap Infomax reported.

Another expert told, US-Sino conflict made safe-haven asset, dollar rose and restrained euro from reaching 1.10, Yonhap Infomax reported, too.

The long bias on euro is not supported by the economy circumstance.

Gjallarhorn got the long position of futures, euro-fx. It is liquidated in September.
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[EUR] Euro Retreats 2020 0513

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro II 2020 0513
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro 2020 0511
cf. [EUR] Retreating Euro 2020 0505

The one of the major currency pair, EUR/USD has tried to break through 1.10 but it failed till now.

After the currency pair failed to exceed 1.10 on Thursday, it retreats. It is expected to fall along the bottom band of Bollinger Bands and it may retreat to 1.0878 which was the peak and resistance price band in mid May.

The price of 1.0871 is 20 Moving Average in the daily chart, and the price band, 1.0871~1.0877 could be a strong price support band.

There aren't an explicit patterns and signals, and it is better just to watch the market till the entry signal is shown. As of now, neither short or long positions are recommended.


Gjallarhorn got the long position of futures, euro-fx. It is liquidated in September.
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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른][EUR] 반등을 모색하는 유로화 2020 0517

[EUR] Long Bias to Euro II 2020 0513

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro 2020 0511
cf. [EUR] Retreating Euro 2020 0505

The currency pair EUR/USD which has lowered its peaks moves steadily. The pair rose in Asian session and Europe session but it retreated in New York session on Tuesday.

After the correction, the price of the pair is nearly unchanged on early Wednesday.

Before we analyse the chart of the currency pair, we need to be informed that Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at 13:00(UTC), Wednesday. The investors seem to wait his speech and the market moves quietly.

And the market is predicted to move explicitly after Powell's speech on economic issues.

As well as the peaks of EUR/USD lower, the support prices have risen little by little since late March. The triangle pattern is formed, and the investors can guess the momentum of euro is piled up.

Fed has cut the benchmark interest rate near to zero and does Quantitative Easing Program. It support the graph of EUR/USD may surge. The fear of recession of US economy and second round of US-Sino trade war still threaten greenback.

Therefore, the long bias to euro is available.

And the market expects Fed may cut the Federal Funds Rate to negative rate. On Tuesday, the fed fund futures contracts implied investors expected the interest rate would be negative in June 2021. Meanwhile, the rate options market was putting in a 23% probability of the key federal funds rate falling below zero by end-December

The market expects Fed's President Powell to take cues from his colleagues and dash hopes for negative rates during his webcast with the Peterson Institute for International Economics on Wednesday.

But its possibility is low.

The pandemic is still big issue to Forex market. The hopeful news against the respiratory virus is released, the risky assets are bought more than safe-haven assets such as greenback, Japanese yen. In the other case, the investors buy dollar, yen and gold.

The lockdown around the world hurts the global economy and the rise of euro is limited.

When the outbreak of coronavirus, the market participants expected the respiratory COVID-19 is controlled soon and the markets will grow forming V pattern or U pattern.

But the forecast of the economy recovery with Nike emblem gains the support gradually. It means the recovery of global economy became more difficult.

Gjallarhorn got the long position of futures, euro-fx. It is liquidated in September.
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[EUR] Long Bias to Euro 2020 0511

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Retreating Euro 2020 0505

The currency pair EUR/USD has lowered its peaks since March and its bottoms risen gradually. The one of the major currency pair reduces the size of the price fluctuation.

It means that the price of the pair becomes stable and the shock of the pandemic diminishes.

The currency pair moves up and down in the main trend line and Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. And the traders can expect euro oscillates in the range in the mid-term.

Euro fluctuates on the support line, and it rebounded on 20 Moving Average in four-hour chart. It is anticipated euro rises against dollar in one-hour chart and four-hour chart.

Non-farm Payrolls released on last Friday reduced 20.5 millions and the unemployment rate surged to 14.7 percent. It was worst records but it was better than that of market's forecast, and the risky asset could rise. Because the market participants expect the economy will recover gradually.

The possibility of US-Sino Trade War Round 2 still remains, and it shocks the markets.

Meanwhile it is expected that Fed may cut its benchmark interest rate below zero in the futures market. It lowers dollar. The betting to the negative interest rate made the historical low of US 2-year Treasury Notes yield, and it was 0.129 percent.

If euro succeeds to rebound against greenback, we need to watch whether it breaks through 1.10 and 1.12 one by one.

And Fed carried out Quantitative Easing against the recession due to the pandemic. It devalues dollar.

Gjallarhorn has no position, yet.
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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른]FX마진이란 무엇인가 #11-거래량,통화선물,장외시장

[EUR] Retreating Euro 2020 0505

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

The currency pair EUR/USD plunges since last Friday. The pair formed the price-downturn pattern, Head-and-Shoulders pattern in one-hour chart and four-hour chart, and it began to fall.

It falls along the bottom band of Bollinger Bands, and it means euro keeps falling in hours.

The one of the major currency, EUR/USD broke through 120 exponential moving average in hours charts, respectively, but it sank below 120 EMA.

In the daily chart, the price has fallen to break through the downward trendline. It retreats after touching upper band of Bollinger Bands in the daily chart.

EUR/USD has tumbled below 1.0850 after the German constitutional court deemed some of the ECB action as unconstitutional, with details coming out. The US dollar is gaining strength across the board.

It is 1.0852 as of 12:50(UTC). It seems to retreat continuously in the short term.

The coronavirus pandemic still affects the financial markets. As well as the pandemics itself, the United States and China criticize each other about the origin of the pandemic outbreak.

Donald Trump, US President spoke the virus broke out from the laboratory in Wuhan, China and he implies the retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods, again.

The possibility of US-Sino Trade War Round 2 shocks the markets.

Gjallarhorn liquidated the long position of euro-fx in CME. It will just watch the market till non-farm pay rolls.

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