[GBP] Pound, Attempting Rebound 2020 0701

GBP/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of futures, euro-FX which is liquidated on September, and it is in the loss section.

The currency pair GBP/USD broke thorough 20 Moving Average in the four-hour chart and 120 Exponential Moving Average in the one-hour chart, respectively. The pair seems to rise after the some correction.

Pound formed the price-downturn pattern, Head-and-Shoulders pattern for a month. The pattern is expected to be completed and it gives a hint of rebounding.

Gjallarhorn recommends the long bias of pound against dollar. But the 20-MA in the four-hour chart doesn't give a signal of upward sterling yet, traders need to provide for the pound's drop against dollar.

It is reasonable get a long position after the correction. The 120 EMA in the one-hour chart is 1.2371, the 20 MA in the four-hour chart is 1.2347. We need to check whether these prices support sterling. In worse case, the currency pair can retreat to 1.2256, previous bottom.

The outlook of global economy and Forex market is determined by when the vaccine against the respiratory virus COVID-19. The number of COVID-19 cases, however, increases again, the US economy is slowing to normalize.

Yonhap Infomax, economy news agency reported market experts expected strong dollar in this week on Monday. It reported southern U.S. postponed reopening of economy and the recovery of U.S. economy could be slower if the blockage of economy spread quoting DowJones.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified that the outlook of the U.S. economy is very uncertain in the House of Representatives on Tuesday.

And EU leaders meet on July 17 and 18 and try the final agreement about Europe recovery fund package. They will discuss EU MFF, spokesperson of European Council said on his twitter.

Some countries in Euro zone have been opposed the supporting way of the recovery fund by European Council, and it has been doubted the package will be passed in the committee.

--------------------------------------------------------

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[EUR] Euro's attempt on exceeding 1.13 2020 0629

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2020 0624
cf. [EUR] Unstable Euro 2020 0619


Gjallarhorn has got the long position of futures, euro-FX, which is liquidated on September.

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD begins to rise after the correction, and it retreats again before the New York session.

The resistance line and downward trend line in the four-hour chart is formed since June 11, and the upward trend line will be clear after the price breaks through the short-term downward trend line and the upper band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart.

And we need to be interested in the possibility of breaking-through 1.13. Since the pandemic, euro has tried to exceed 1.13 against greenback. The price of euro against greenback just exceeded 1.13 temporarily, and it tries again. The short-term downward trend line and the price of 1.13 are together now. Euro will face the more powerful resistance.

Euro has tried to break through 1.10 several times and succeeded at last. It exceeded 1.11 and 1.12 in progression. This fact gives investors the positive outlook about euro.

As the week begins, the currency pair EUR/USD rises toward 1.13, shrugging off coronavirus concerns.

But Yonhap Infomax, economy news agency reported market experts expected strong dollar in this week on Monday. IIt reported southern U.S. postponed reopening of economy and the recovery of U.S. economy could be slower if the blockage of economy spread quoting DowJones.

They said, the 2nd blockage could make the double deep of the U.S. economy possible and it would provoke safe-asset dollar again, Yonhap Infomax reported.

Meanwhile German Bundesbank can continue participating in the Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP), the German finance ministry noted, FXStreet.com reported on Monday.

And EU leaders meet on July 17 and 18 and try the final agreement about Europe recovery fund package. They will discuss EU MFF, spokesperson of European Council said on his twitter.

Some countries in Euro zone have been opposed the supporting way of the recovery fund by European Council, and it has been doubted the package will be passed in the committee.

----------------------------------------------------
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[물리I]시간 측정-원자시, 태양시

[EUR] Euro in the Correction 2020 0624

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Unstable Euro 2020 0619
cf. [EUR] Steady Euro 2020 0614
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro After the Correction 2020 0608
cf. [EUR] Preparing the Correction 2020 0604
cf. [EUR] EUR May Rise in Short and Mid-term 2020 0601

Gjallarhorn has no position after the liquidation of the long position of futures, euro-FX, and watch the chart to find the entry point.

The currency pair EUR/USD which fell to 1.1167 succeeded to rebound and tried the rally. It failed to exceed the previous peak and is in the correction term.

The price keeps upward in the four-hour, daily and weekly chart, it supports the long bias of euro against dollar. If a long position is gained, it is reasonable to set stop-loss price at 1.1231s, 120 exponential moving average in the weekly chart.

A long-term indicator is about to turn bullish for the first time in three years, EUR/USD’s daily chart shows, FXstreet.com reported.

And it is recommended to watch whether price is supported at 1.13, too.

If the price of the currency pair EUR/USD falls, the price-down pattern, double-tops pattern is made in one-hour chart. The price 1.1250 which is 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart is needed to be checked as a support line and entry point.

Meanwhile EU leaders meet on July 17 and 18 and try the final agreement about Europe recovery fund package. They will discuss EU MFF, spokesperson of European Council said on his twitter.

Some countries in Euro zone have been opposed the supporting way of the recovery fund by European Council, and it has been doubted the package will be passed in the committee.

---------------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.

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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른]FX마진이란 무엇인가 #14 - 만기일, 롤오버 이자

[EUR] Unstable Euro 2020 0619

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Steady Euro 2020 0614
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro After the Correction 2020 0608
cf. [EUR] Preparing the Correction 2020 0604
cf. [EUR] EUR May Rise in Short and Mid-term 2020 0601

Falling Euro was supported on 120 Exponential Moving Average in the four-hour chart of currency pair EUR/USD. But it doesn't mean the euro's rising. In contrary the support line may be tested again, and it is possible euro to decrease under the 120 EMA. It is 1.1189 as of 10:00(GMT).

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD lowers gradually its peaks in the four-hour and the one-hour chart respectively. It is not positive staples to euro.

And the downward 20 Moving Average makes euro be expected to drop.

Then we need to find the next support line. Price 1.10 may be powerful, because it is 20 MA of the weekly chart and has been the resistance line for a long time. But the difference between 1.10 and current price is too big.

The currency pair can keep its bullish bias, it is recommended just to watch the chart and the market till the trend is shown again, though.

The fear of 2nd wave of pandemic threatens the financial markets, which are in the correction. The market participants expect the Covid-19 vaccine would be made shortly and the global economy recover. But it is doubted, rising asset has fallen. And safe-haven dollar rises.

Some countries in Euro zone are opposed the supporting way of the recovery fund by European Commission, and it is doubted the package will be passed in the committee. It degraded euro some one percent.

And the outlook of EU Economic Summit on Friday is negative.

Gjallarhorn has no position after the liquidation of the long position of futures, euro-FX.

------------------------------------------------
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[물리I] 시간과 시각 개념

[EUR] Steady Euro 2020 0614

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Rising Euro After the Correction 2020 0608
cf. [EUR] Preparing the Correction 2020 0604
cf. [EUR] EUR May Rise in Short and Mid-term 2020 0601

The currency pair EUR/USD is under the correction after the rising without pause. One of the major currency EUR/USD which has touched 1.1420 fell under 1.1300.

Euro stays on bottom band of Bollinger Bands at the end of last week recording 1.12597. It is likely to fall again forming downturn, double-tops pattern this week.

Though it steps down to 1.115x, 120 Exponential Moving Average in the four-hour chart, it doesn't hurt the upward trend in the mid-and-long term. Because it is above 20 Moving average in the daily chat and the weekly chart. Euro has rushed to upper band of Bollinger Bands and 120 EMA, and it succeeded. It needs a break empirically, Gjallahorn thinks.

The currency pair can keep its bullish bias, if it is supported 1.1150, 120 EMA kn four-hour chart, 1.1150, a short-term trend line, Gjallarhorn analyses.

The pair is still between the upward trend line and the downward trend line.

Dollar gained due to the empirical break of euro, but the pandemic coronavirus and the dismal economy-outlook by Fed supported greenback, too.

The market participants expected the Covid-19 vaccine would be made shortly and the global economy recover. But it is doubted, rising asset has fallen. And safe-haven dollar rose.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke the gloomy outlook of economy in May but he denied the possible negative benchmark interest rate, Federal Funds Rate.

Fed forecasted the economy to be depressed, including a 6.5% reverse growth this year and an unemployment rate of 9.3% at the end of the year at the press conference on last Wednesday.

These facts supported dollar late last week.

The concerned experts said that euro would move in the narrow range due to the being in slow progress of Europe's recovery fund, Yonhap Infomax reported on Saturday.

Gjallarhorn liquidated the long position of futures, euro-FX on Friday due to the expectation of euro's correction below 1.13.

------------------------------------------------
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[JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0610

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Risk-on, Falling Yen 2020 0603
cf. [JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0430

The currency pair USD/JPY retreats since last Friday evening(GMT). It moves steady on early Wednesday and it is expected that the pair plunges as Europe session begins. It means strong Yen and weak dollar. It may be restricted at 108.xx, the upper band of Bollinger Bands though it rises.

We could set 107.15 as a first support line. If the downward trend is strong, the pair could fall deeper to 106.07.

The recent downturn is due to weak greenback against major currencies. Market participants expect the easing policy will be confirmed at FOMC meeting scheduled on Wednesday. Federal Reserve is expected to keep dovish policy including Quantitative Easing and buying even junk bond at FOMC meeting.

The benchmark interest rate will be decided at FOMC meeting at 18:00(GMT), Wednesday. It is anticipated the rate will be frozen. Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke the gloomy outlook of economy in May but he denied the possible negative benchmark interest rate, Federal Funds Rate.

Meanwhile Non-farm Payrolls in May recorded the 2.5 millions increase on last Friday. Market forecasted 7.75 millions decline but the better record supported greenback.

The key currency greenback will be kept downward trend. Then the risky currencies such as euro, sterling and aussie will rise. Japanese yen is the safe-haven asset, it seems to follow risky assets' route though.

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of futures, euro-FX. It is liquidated in September.

---------------------------
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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른]FX마진이란 무엇인가 #13-FX마진특성: 양방향 수익구조, 스프레드

[EUR] Rising Euro After the Correction 2020 0608

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Preparing the Correction 2020 0604
cf. [EUR] EUR May Rise in Short and Mid-term 2020 0601

Euro fell on Friday due to the better record than expected Non-farm Payrolls and unemployment rate.

But this retreat is meaningful in technical analysis.

Currency pair EUR/USD broke through 20 Moving Average two weeks ago and touched the upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. And it is worth of exceeding 120 Exponential Moving Average in the weekly chart. It is natural euro fell on Friday after it exceed 120 EMA and upper band of Bollinger Bands simultaneously. Because the break after the meaningful goal is needed.

Currency pair touched 120 EMA in the weekly chart in three months. It doesn't say euro will keep the continuous climb.

Falling euro succeeded to rebound on the support line and there is still room for rising to more 1.20. But 120 EMA isn't broken at once empirically. There will be several tries for exceeding it.

The currency pair may fall but it is reasonable to keep the long bias of EUR/USD.

Meanwhile Non-farm Payrolls in May recorded the 2.5 millions increase on last Friday. Market forecasted 7.75 millions decline but the better record supported greenback.

FOMC decide the benchmark interest rate at 18:00(GMT), Wednesday. It is anticipated the rate will be frozen. Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke the gloomy outlook of economy in May but he denied the possible negative benchmark interest rate, Federal Funds Rate.

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of futures, euro-FX. It is liquidated in September.
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[EUR] Preparing the Correction 2020 0604

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] EUR May Rise in Short and Mid-term 2020 0601
cf. [EUR] Unstable Rebounding of Euro 2020 0523
cf. [EUR] Euro Retreats 2020 0522
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro II 2020 0513
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro 2020 0511
cf. [EUR] Retreating Euro 2020 0505

Euro retreats against dollar on early Thursday. Though it fell today, nobody may be concerned about risk-off. One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD has risen for seven days recently. Euro rose from late May and seven-days rising is the longest rising since December, 2013.

Dollar Index, showing dollar's value for the basket of major six currencies fell 0.46 percent to 97.250, recording low since mid-March.

Safe-haven dollar falls due to the expectation of the additional recovery packages, resumption of economy activity and easing blockage around the world, though Sino-America tension and the ongoing protest in the United States.

The economy recovery program of 75 billion euro fund by EU commission's plan. If EU commission funds the recovery package, euro is supplied more and gets currency power more as a global key currency.

The currency pair moves steady in Asian session, it seems to search its direction, up or down.

After the investors accept the correction, they should think how euro falls. We can guess the previous sidling-term may be a support line, first. We need to watch whether price band, 1.1117 ~1.1136 support the retreating euro.

If euro falls below the first support line, it could retreat to 1.10. Euro has tried to break through 1.10 for months. The price 1.10 was a strong resistance line and it will be a support line now.

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of futures, euro-FX. It is liquidated in September.
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[JPY] Risk-on, Falling Yen 2020 0603

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0430

The pair of safe-haven currencies, USD/JPY rose after the long steady sidling in the horizontal channel on Tuesday. It sidled since March. The price of the currency pair reached the upper band of Bollinger Bands and rose along the band.

It retreats as Asian session has begun. But it recorded the long positive candle and it is expected the price to rise. Rising price means strong dollar and weak yen.

The currency pair has reached 20 Moving Average in the weekly chart and it gives the clue of supporting of price-rising, greenback upward.

We need to be informed that the pair has moved in the directionless channel though the pair rises to upper Bollinger Bands. The both of currencies, dollar and yen are the safe-haven asset, and currencies value move together, Gjallarhorn thinks. And we need to watch the chart carefully searching the signals in the chart.

Meanwhile, Dollar Index, showing dollar's value for the basket of major six currencies fell 0.11 percent to 97.70, recording low since mid-March.

The optimism for the global economy recovery made the investors buy risky assets though Sino-American tension. And Japanese Yen retreated.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell showed his negative economy growth and denied the possible negative benchmark interest rate last month.

The expectation of the global-economy recovery, the recovery package  of Euro Zone and the vaccine against Coronavirus has supported the risky assets such as euro.

There are regular big events in the week. G7 meeting is held today, and ADP Non-farm Payrolls is released, too. European Central Bank releases Main Refinancing Rate on Thursday. Non-farm Payrolls is issued on Friday.

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of futures, euro-FX. It is liquidated in September.

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