[JPY] Risk-On Setiment 2020 1201

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 cf. [JPY] Stable Yen 2020 0910

There is a downward trend line in the daily chart of currency pair USD/JPY since late February. It supports the short bias of US dollar against yen.

And the pair succeeded in rebounding on Monday. Before facing the resistance line by the daily chart, it seems to rise in the short term. There is about one big margin. It means the weak yen and risk-on sentiment. 

The greenback was down on early Tuesday due to the risk-on sentiment in Asian session. And risk-off asset yen retreats, too. It fell against major currencies including the US dollar.

The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against major currency basket succeeded in rebounding though the risk-on.

The market's expectation of more monetary easing measures from the Federal Reserve lowers the safety asset such as dollar and yen. Yen is more safe than dollar and the yen retreats more than the greenback.

The hopeful COVID-19 vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna for distribution stimulate the markets, though rising virus cases.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said on Monday that difficult months lie ahead. "We're bracing ourselves here," he said, adding that the central bank is open-minded about shifting or even expanding its bond buying program.

The President-elect Joe Biden appointed Janet Yellen, the former Fed Chair as the Threasury Secretary.

And U.S. FOMC meeting is held on December 17. The market participants expect the more market-friendly policy of FOMC but lower their expectation of the US fiscal stimulus in the year.

Meanwhile Gjallarhorn liquidated the long positions of euro-futures in CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

---------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른][EUR] 1.20을 눈앞에 둔 유로화 2020 1130

[EUR] EUR, Preparing to Exceed 1.20 2020 1129

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] 반등하는 유로 2020 1125

cf. [EUR] EUR, trapped between the Resistance and the Support 2020 1124

cf. [EUR] Enlarging Volatility 2020 1119

cf. [EUR] Bullish Euro? 2020 1117

Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.

The currency pair EUR/USD finished the week with gain while US holidays, Thanksgiving Day. 

The one of the major currency pair, EUR/USD which ended the week with 1.1958 gives the market participants the strong signal of poising to break through 1.20. And it ready to face the major bearish trend line which has been built since 2008. 

The major downward trend line passes around 1.20 in this week. The exceeding 1.20 of euro means the new trend will be formed.

The 20 Moving Average in hours charts, daily and weekly charts direct upward showing the rising momentum.

But we need to watch the external news as well as the technical analysis.

When euro tries to exceed the meaningful price level, it retreated. The re-proliferation of COVID-19 disturbed the rising of euro. The third wave of rising infection cases makes the investors' risk-averse sentiment, euro down and dollar up.

And the news of vaccine development by the pharmaceuticals turns on the risk-on sentiment.

The passive re-proliferation of COVID-19 and the optimistic vaccine development make the euro fluctuate.

Meanwhile Charles Evans, governor of Chicago Fed. expected the near-zero interest rate of Fed. might be held till 2024. It hints the weak greenback for a long time.

The Forex strategist of the French bank, Societe Generale has forecasted the euro would be bullish if the yield spread between eurozone and counterparts becomes narrow and prospected 1.1920 might be the last resistance line to proceed to 1.20, before.

------------------------------------------

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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른][EUR] 반등하는 유로 2020 1125

[EUR] EUR, trapped between the Resistance and the Support 2020 1124

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

cf. [EUR] Enlarging Volatility 2020 1119

cf. [EUR] Bullish Euro? 2020 1117

cf. [EUR] Fluctuating Euro 2020 1112

cf. [EUR] After the Election 2020 1108

Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.

Rising euro plunged suddenly in the last afternoon(GMT).

The one of the major currency pair, EUR/USD rose above 1.1900 in the noon(GMT), but it fell sharply below 1.1800. It took just 3.75 hours.

After plunging it rebounded being supported on 1.1800. The pair seems to keep the bullish momentum, and it is recommended to hold the long position of euro.

Euro faces the strong resistance at 1.189x. Whenever it has touched around 1.189s, it retreated due to the several materials such as the re-proliferation of the virus and the US Presidential Election.

This time, the positive news of vaccine development by the pharmaceutical AstraZeneca took the currency pair upward toward 1.19. But the greenback surged while the release of the US Flash Manufacturing PMI for November. The index showed an unexpected increase to the highest level in years.

And the fear of re-proliferation of COVID-19  in the United States took euro down, too. 

FXStreet analyses 1.1920 as a key level to determine the near-trend direction of the euro and sets 1.1910~20 price zone, as a strong resistance against EUR/USD.

And Charles Evans, governor of Chicago Fed. expected the near-zero interest rate of Fed. might be held till 2024.

Meanwhile Janet Yellen, former Federal Reserve was selected as Treasury Secretary in the Joe Biden's government. It was positive to the market.

German IFO institute releases ifo Business Climate at 09:00(GMT), Tuesday. Its previous index was 92.7 and the market expects it may be 90.3, this time.

The forex strategist of the French bank, Societe Generale has forecasted the euro would be bullish if the yield spread between eurozone and counterparts becomes narrow and prospected 1.1920 might be the last resistance line to proceed to 1.20, before.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른][EUR] 상승세 테스트하는 유로화 2020 1120

[EUR] Enlarging Volatility 2020 1119

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Bullish Euro? 2020 1117

cf. [EUR] Fluctuating Euro 2020 1112

cf. [EUR] After the Election 2020 1108

Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.

The rising currency pair EUR/USD retreated and is under the correction. It failed to break through the bearish trend line in the four-hour chart, it's hard to break through the trend line  at one sitting, though.

And it is positive that the bottoms rise.

Gjallarhorn thinks it is still valid to hold the bullish bias to euro.

As it has done, euro's moving has been determined by COVID-19. 

The news of COVID-19 vaccine boosted the risk-on sentiment of buying euro, pound and selling dollar and yen. And the surging infection cases and the re-proliferation make investors turn to buy risk-averse US dollar and gold.

Though the US pharmaceuticals announced their development of vaccine, the re-proliferation cooled down the risk-on sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 recorded their worst day in three weeks on Wednesday, and these indices are set for their third straight day of losses as this vaccine optimism dissipates.

And the US initial Jobless Claims increased 742 thousands, which was expected 707 thousands.

The US economy still doesn't recover from the recession.

Yonhap Infomax, economy news agency reported, analysts of ANZ said that the mixed materials raise the market volatility on Thursday.

Meanwhile, The forex strategist of the French bank, Societe Generale forecasted the euro would be bullish if the yield spread between eurozone and counterparts becomes narrow. And he prospected 1.1920 might be the last resistance line to proceed to 1.20, too.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른]정말 인문학은 위기일까-인문학이 들려주는 트레이딩 원리

[EUR] Bullish Euro? 2020 1117

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

cf. [EUR] Fluctuating Euro 2020 1112

cf. [EUR] After the Election 2020 1108

Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD succeeded to rebound on 20 Moving Average in the daily chart. It is expected to rise to 1.1925, the upper band of Bollinger Bands first, though it fluctuates in the bands.

The Forex market is driven by the re-proliferation of COVID-19 after the US Presidential Election on November 3. It implies that the technical analysis isn't effective so much.

The positive news from pharmaceuticals boosts the markets, stock markets as well as forex markets.

US pharmaceuticals, Moderna Inc reported a 94.5% efficacy rate for its candidate vaccine its phase III study yesterday.

The news follows Pfizer Inc and BioNTech's announcement during the previous week that their jointly developed the COVID-19 vaccine which prevented more than 90% of symptomatic infections. The US pharmaceuticals, Pfizer and German BioNTech announced that the vaccine against COVID-19 and the stock markets were excited.

The news of the COVID-19 vaccine called the risk-on sentiment of the market participants. As the news of COVID-19 vaccine was released, the stock market in Ney York surged. The euro also rose after the correction in the early market.

And the analysts of Action Economics said, the dollar would fluctuate in the narrow channel now but it would fall when the economy recovers with the inflation for months.

The forex strategist of the French bank, Societe Generale forecasted the euro would be bullish if the yield spread between eurozone and counterparts becomes narrow. And he prospected 1.1920 might be the last resistance line to proceed to 1.20, too.

Gjallarhorn recommends you the boring management rather than the splendid skill. The skill without the capital management doesn't keep your accounts. Though the deal failed, the capital management eases the loss and guards the accounts.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른][EUR] 반등을 모색하는 유로화 2020 1113

[EUR] Fluctuating Euro 2020 1112

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] After the Election 2020 1108

cf. [EUR] Testing Rising Euro 2020 1026

cf. [EUR] Fear of Twindemic 2020 1019

Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.

Though euro is in the correction, Gjallarhorn analyses the long bias to euro is still valid. Euro has the margin of rising to 1.20 at least, Gjallarhorn thinks.

The currency pair EUR/USD succeeded to break through the downward trend line last Friday, it sank under the trend line as this week began though. It formed the Head-and-Shoulders pattern in four-hour chart, but it was supported on 1.1744.

Euro fluctuates without explicit trend in the daily chat and weekly chart, and it shows bullish in the monthly chart.

The investors may expect euro reaches the bearish trend line in the four-hour chart and break through.

And we need to recognize that the currency pair EUR/USD moves by the external factors, such as the US election and re-proliferation of COVID-19. It implies that the technical analysis isn't effective so much.

The US pharmaceuticals, Pfizer and German BioNTech announced that the vaccine against COVID-19 and the stock markets were excited. But the investors adjusted their expectation, the risk-on asset's values have been in the correction.

The pandemic still disturbs eurozone economy.

Though Biden's victory in the Presidential Election, the political situation in the United States isn't clear. It burdens Forex market.

And the euro slipped 0.3% against dollar overnight after the European Central Bank said it would focus on bond buying and cheap loans to boost pandemic-wrecked economies.

Therefore the investors still hesitate to buy more risk-on asset. 

Meanwhile Goldman Sachs has predicted the weak greenback because the vaccine against COVID-19 and Joe Biden's winning.

Gjallarhorn recommends you the boring management rather than the splendid skill. The skill without the capital management doesn't keep your accounts. Though the deal failed, the capital management eases the loss and guards the accounts.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail.

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft) 

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You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

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Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report

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[EUR] After the Election 2020 1108

EUR/USD daily chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Testing Rising Euro 2020 1026

cf. [EUR] Fear of Twindemic 2020 1019

Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.

Democrat Joe Biden declared his victory against President and Republican Donald Trump over the Presidential Election on Saturday.

Biden got 279 Electoral College votes at least as he won in Pennsylvania, and he is expected to get more Electoral Colleges in Arizona and other states.

The Presidential Election was one of the uncertainty factors in Forex market. It was very difficult to predict the next US President and it raised the greenback and risk-averse asset.

And we can watch the chart itself.

The price of the currency pair EUR/USD fluctuated in a certain channel in the daily chart since last summer below the major downward trend line.

When it plunged, it was supported on around 1.2628 and succeeded to rebound. It is expected that the price may break through the channel and the trend line in order.

We need to watch whether euro would exceed 1.20 against dollar again.

The possible fiscal stimulus may drop the greenback.

----------------------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail.

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft) 

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[ASMR] The Sound of Rain in Summer