Thursday, 31 December 2020
Tuesday, 22 December 2020
[EUR] Preparing EURO's Correction 2020 1223
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] EUR Preparing Leap 2020 1216
cf. [EUR] Fluctuating Euro above 1.21 2020 1209
cf. [EUR] EUR, Preparing to Exceed 1.20 2020 1129
The currency pair EUR/USD has risen trying to make the new trend.
The pair succeeded to break through the main bearish trend line and exceeded 1.20 in the year.
The euro which has risen without the explicit pattern fluctuate in enlarging amplitude. It supports that euro won't show the dramatic rising again for a while and it may be in the correction.
Gjallarhorn recommend the watching the market carefully not to deal the currency pair now. And it is end of the year, many traders take the rest preparing the next year.
It is still valid to keep the long bias to euro, buying euro, though euro hovers in the sidling channel. But it doesn't mean the purchase euro now.
The key currency, U.S. dollar rose on Tuesday, it is thought that the concern of COVID-19 re-proliferation and the detection of coronavirus variant in the UK called the risk-averse sentiment.
The dollar index rose 0.1% to 90.561, extending its gain for the week to 0.7%. That still leaves it on track for a more than 6% decline this year.
The infection cases have surged in the United States. It is reported, the accumulated cases may reach over 20 millions in the year. The infection cases exceeded 18 millions and the death toll is near 320 thousands in the U.S. according to the research by Johns Hopkins University.
But the vaccine injection cases help the easing of the investors' anxiety. The President-elect Joe Biden and NIAID Header Anthony Fauci were injected the coronavirus vaccine respectively. Fauci said the vaccine might be effective to the variant virus, too.
U.S. Congress passed an $892 billion COVID-19 aid package overnight, it didn't affect to the market though. Because the market participants already expected.
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Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
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Tuesday, 15 December 2020
[EUR] EUR Preparing Leap 2020 1216
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Fluctuating Euro above 1.21 2020 1209
cf. [EUR] EUR, Preparing to Exceed 1.20 2020 1129
Gjallarhorn has liquidated the long positions of euro-futures in CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and doesn't have any position just watching the market.
One of the major currency pair EUR/USD began this week fluctuating between 1.212x and 217x.
The pair just moves up and down without the explicit trend after it broke through the main bearish trend line which was formed since 2008.
Euro failed to gain the momentum of rising more after the surging in the last month, though Dollar Index which tracking the greenback against six major currencies basket fell 0.30 percent to 90.429 on Tuesday. The dollar Index fell to lowest level in two and a half year.
The market participants expected the additional fiscal stimulus, the optimism of the talk between England and EU after the Brexit and the vaccine injection soon, and it took euro to rise in the channel. The positive news against the pandemic supports the risk-on assets.
Senator McConnell hinted the deal might be agreed in the year.
It made the greenback's retreat and euro's rising, it added.
DowJones reported on Monday, the analysts in JP Morgan thought the investors believed the euro would rise.
And the analysts thought euro might lose its popularity due to the ECB's policy. Yonhap Infomax reported citing DowJones.
The European Central Bank, ECB spoke the hyper-easing monetary policy would be extended at least to March, 2022.
And it revised to buy the bonds 50 billion euro more via PPP, purchasing program against the pandemic. A strategist told that ECB might restrain the rising of euro and euro would fall to 1.20s.
But Commerzbank think the pair is supported by the U.S. inflation expectation which is higher than that in euro zone. The euro rises due to the inflation difference between the United States and euro zone while Fed and ECB hold the zero interest rate respectively, Yonhap Infomax reported citing DowJones.
Meanwhile the U.S. FOMC meeting is held on December 17. The market participants expect the more market-friendly policy of FOMC but lower their expectation of the US fiscal stimulus in the year.
It is still valid to keep the long bias to euro, buying euro, though euro hovers in the sidling channel. And it is recommended that buying euro as it is in the correction.
------------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
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Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
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Thursday, 10 December 2020
Tuesday, 8 December 2020
[EUR] Fluctuating Euro above 1.21 2020 1209
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] 1.20을 눈앞에 둔 유로화 2020 1130
cf. [EUR] EUR, Preparing to Exceed 1.20 2020 1129
Gjallarhorn liquidated the long positions of euro-futures in CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and doesn't have any position in the year.
The currency pair EUR/USD has broken through 1.20 and exceeded 1.21 sequently.
The major downward trend line which has been formed for more ten years, has been broken thorough, and euro moves above the bearish trend line. It means the new trend will be made.
The currency pair fluctuates after its rally exceeding 1.21. It may retreat and doesn't seem to rally again over 1.2160 in the short term.
It is forecasted that euro moves in the channel between 1.2070 and 1.2166.
The long bias to euro is still valid. It seems to be supported at 1.2050 at first and the second support may be 1.1970.
And it is recommended to buy euro while its correction. Fibonacci 38.2 and 120 Exponential Moving Average are around 1.1970. It looks not fall below it.
ECB, the European Central Bank holds the meeting on Thursday. Forex experts thought ECB would extend the QE program, DowJones reported on Tuesday.
And one strategist told that ECB might restrain the rising of euro and euro would fall to 1.20s.
The U.S. FOMC meeting is held on December 17. The market participants expect the more market-friendly policy of FOMC but lower their expectation of the US fiscal stimulus in the year.
The COVID-19 vaccine by the international pharmaceuticals Pfizer and BioNTech began to be used in England this week for the first time. The vaccine will be used in the United States soon.
The positive news against the pandemic supports the risk-on assets.
------------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD