Friday, 26 March 2021
[EUR] Short Bias to EURO 2021 0326
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Fluctuating and Bearish-like EURO 2021 0323
Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position just watching the market.
The currency pair EUR/USD which has fallen since mid March tries to rebound. But the momentum of the pair seems not to be strong and the explicit signal is negative to euro.
The weekly chart of EUR/USD should be watched before the rebounding euro attracts attention. The form of the Head-and-Shoulders pattern is being completed in the weekly chart. The head and the left shoulder are made, and the rest seems to be formed. If the traders consider the pattern, they need to prepare of the retreat to 1.1600, first. The euro may fall under the 1.16 after forming the right shoulder of the pattern.
The market participants need to watch whether the euro exceed 20 moving average in the four-hour chart for the deal in the short term. If it breaks 20 MA, it can be expected to rise to 1.187x at least.
Before the analysis the chart, we need to be interested in the global economy news more. The currencies including the greenback and the euro, are moved by the US economy, the bond yields and the vaccination against the pandemic.
The optimistic outlook for the US economy, the impressive pace of coronavirus vaccinations and a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields should continue to underpin the greenback. Thursday's upbeat US Initial Jobless Claims added to the narrative of a relatively faster US economic recovery from the pandemic.
The concerns about the economic recession due to the third wave of COVID-19 infections in Europe could keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the shared currency.
And the risk-off sentiment supports the US dollar. The expectation of the US economy growth, too. The US economy is distinguished from its counterpart due to the third wave of the infections.
The unemployment claims hit the low since the pandemic, recording 684 thousands and the US GDP in last forth quarter was 4.3 percent.
Meanwhile, Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair has affirmed the monetary easing policy in the long term contributing to the mass media, and Thomas I. Barkin, the governor of Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond has spoken, the inflation should be out of sight for six months and tried for the stable bond market.
It is reported, JP Morgan increased the dollar position in its Forex portfolio.
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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.
Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
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Tuesday, 23 March 2021
[EUR] Fluctuating and Bearish-like EURO 2021 0323
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position just watching the market.
The currency pair EUR/USD fluctuates in Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart. It rose bridging the gap on Monday. But the pair just moved up and down without the meaningful signal.
There is still the possibility of forming the Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the weekly chart, the traders need to prepare the price may fall to 1.18 at first and 1.16s next step.
It is reasonable just to watch the market without getting positions for a while. It is not late to get the short or the long position after confirming the trend.
The rising dollar which recorded high in four months turned the direction to downward on Monday, as the US 10-y Treasury Note yields dropped under the 1.7 percent and was stable.
Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair affirmed the monetary easing policy in the long term contributing to the mass media, and it helped the dollar to be corrected.
Thomas I. Barkin, the governor of Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond spoke, the inflation should be out of sight for six months and tried for the stable bond market.
And the sudden exchange of the Turkish Central Bank's governor called the risk-off sentiment.
The market participants have thought the bearish greenback due to the vaccination against COVID-19 and the expectation of global economy recovery since last forth quarter. But the expectation of the U.S. economy growth called the yields' rising, and it raised the bullish dollar. And the insufficient vaccination in Europe has supported the strong U.S. dollar. Because they think there will be gap between the U.S economy growth and Eurozone's more and more.
It is reported, JP Morgan increased the dollar position in its Forex portfolio.
Edward Moya, a senior market analyst with OANDA said, the short trend became ease in the bond market and it made the investors just watch the dollar and its counterpart
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal analysed that the possible inflation in the United States might control the bullish dollar last Friday. The Dollar Index which is stable relatively fluctuating 91.0 may another factors, the media diagnosed.
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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.
Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
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#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Sunday, 21 March 2021
Wednesday, 17 March 2021
[EUR] Awaiting FOMC Conclusion 2021 0317
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] The Unstablel Euro while Rising 2021 0311
cf. [EUR] Plunging Euro 2021 0308
Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position just watching the market.
The one of the major currency pair EUR/USD failed to rebound after forming the double-bottoms pattern in the four-hour chart. The pair stepped down to 1.1885 and tries to recover again.
The euro attempts to make the doubl-bottoms pattern in more large scale, in the four-hour chart, and it may raise the euro.
But the retreating EUR/USD goes sideways waiting for the U.S. FOMC meeting which gives hints about Federal Reserve's monetary policies. The watching the market may be better than the dealing ahead of FOMC press conference.
The currency pair EUR/USD fell 0.1% to 1.1892, near three and a half weeks low of 1.1835 as concerns grow about further lockdowns in Europe and delays in vaccinations. German government and French's halted the vaccination of AstraZeneca.
But German economy is confirmed to recover by the economy index of ZEW Economic Sentiment. German ZEW Economic Sentiment was released 76.6 better than market expectation 74.0.
The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day policy meeting later Wednesday, and is expected to update its economic forecasts to predict stronger U.S. economic growth in the wake of a ramped-up Covid-19 vaccination program and 1.9 trillion dollars in new stimulus.
The analysts at ING said, a substantial shift in tone by the FOMC appears unlikely and markets would probably remain unfussed by a mere reiteration of the 'lower-for-longer' pledge despite improved recovery prospects in a research note.
The Fed is predicted to keep its easing monetary policy for a while, the concern of the inflation in the United States is still rising. The market participants expect there will be a comment about the rising bond yield after the FOMC meeting. The U.S. economy reportedly has grown most quickly in ten years and the unemployment rate lowers, and they give the traders the concern of the inflation. Jerome Powell has spoken that Fed doesn't worry about the yields seriously, which made the yield surge.
Meanwhile a forex analyst Joseph Travasani at FXStreet.com spoke, the main momentum of the dollar was the U.S. yields and it wouldn't change.
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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.
Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
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Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
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#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Sunday, 14 March 2021
Thursday, 11 March 2021
[EUR] The Unstable Euro while Rising 2021 0311
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Plunging Euro 2021 0308
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2021 0303
cf. [EUR] EURO in the Correction 2021 0226
Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position after the liquidation in February.
The one of the major currency pair EUR/USD rebounds exceeding 20 Moving Average and reaching the upper band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart. And the pair rises toward 20 Moving Average from the bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the daily chart. The traders can expect the bullish euro in the short term.
But it doesn't show the full-out upward trend yet. The weekly chart of the EUR/USD supported the euro around 1.1836 and the euro rose. But the dealers need to watch the euro more. There is still the possibility of forming the Head-and-Shoulders pattern which implies the trend turning. The traders need to prepare the correction of the currency pair to 1.1740~1.1600.
The currency pair could rebound due to the correction of the U.S. bond yields. As the Treasury yields go stable, the dollar stepped down.
Fears of spiking US interest rates from a weak Treasury sale on Wednesday failed to materialize as auction data showed sufficient demand to keep the benchmark yield stable. In the U.S. 10-y auction, the yields dropped to 1.52 percent and it led the euro up. The U.S. Treasury yields retreated, it is still under the pressure of rising though. Because it is expected that the U.S. economy will recover quickly than other countries'.
As Fed is predicted to keep its easing monetary policy for a while, the concern of the inflation in the United States rises. FOMC is hold in the next week, the market expect there will be a comment about the rising bond yield. Jerome Powell has spoken that Fed doesn't worry about the yields seriously, which made the yield surge.
A forex analyst Joseph Travasani at FXStreet.com spoke, the main momentum of the dollar was the U.S. yields and it wouldn't change.
------------------------------------------
Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.
Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
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Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
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#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Monday, 8 March 2021
[EUR] Plunging Euro 2021 0303
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2021 0303
cf. [EUR] EURO in the Correction 2021 0226
Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position after the liquidation in February.
The currency pair EUR/USD plunges at the beginning of the week. The pair which has broken through the 120 Exponential Moving Average retreats along the bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the daily chart. It fell to the fresh low since last November 25.
The euro has attempted to break the main downward trend line formed since 2008. This plunge can be interpreted, the attempt failed. It means that the euro dives forming the Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the weekly chart, and it may plunges to 1.16 or below 1.16.
The traders need to watch the price in the four-hour chart. If the euro exceeds 20 Moving Average with ease, it has more possibility of rising in the short term. If not, the plunge may go on.
It's the time to just watch the situation.
The U.S. Senate passed the massive fiscal stimulus package over the weekend. This raises the likelihood that this bill will be passed into law before enhanced jobless benefits expire on March 14.
The passage of the stimulus bill and the Non-farm Payrolls in last Friday boosted the dollar. And the rising U.S. Treasury yield supported the greenback, too. The 10-y yields exceeded 1.6 percent at once in the last week.
And the analysts at Bank of America predicted the dollar might be bullish more in the year. The expectation of the global economy recovery and the yield spread will support the dollar, they analyze. The U.S. news media CNBC foresaw the 10 percent of the U.S. economy growth in the first quarter.
Meanwhile a high-level official at the European Central Bank worried the recent Yield Curves. The European Central Bank releases its benchmark interest rate, the Main Refinancing Rate on Thursday. The markets expect it will be frozen. And the press conference is held after the release of the benchmark interest rate.
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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.
Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
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Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
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#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Friday, 5 March 2021
Tuesday, 2 March 2021
[EUR] Rebounding Euro 2021 0303
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] EURO in the Correction 2021 0226
cf. [EUR] Rebounding EURO 2021 0225
Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position, now after the liquidation in February.
The currency pair succeeded to rebound forming V pattern after the sinkage below 1.20, four-week lows in the one-hour chart and the four-hour chart. But it hasn't exceeded the 120 exponential moving average in the one-hour chart, and its breaking-though the 20 moving average in the four-hour chart hasn't been completed, yet. The rebounding is still unstable.
While its retreating and rebounding, the pair fluctuated in the sidling Bollinger Bands being supported on the 120 EMA in the daily chart. The currency pair prepares to rise to 1.21 level. It seems that the rebound of euro may be restrained below 1.2200~1.2241 which is the upper band of the Bollinger Bands and the previous peak respectively.
The greenback stepped down from monthly tops on Tuesday after the risk sentiment recovered on retreating Treasury yields, which eased off the pressure on the Fed to act amid concerns about overheating of the economy.
The expectation of the reflation, the spread extension between the U.S. Treasury yields and that of another countries' raised the U.S. dollar. The yields spread between the U.S. Treasury and German Bund enlarged to 170 basis points more at once.
The yields retreated as Lael Brainard, member of the Fed said that the Fed watched the movement of the markets.
Brainard said, soaring and pace of the Treasury yields in the last week were focused. "If we see the chaotic situation threatening our targets or the continuous increase in yields, we will be worried," she added. "We are paying close attention to the market development," she stressed.
And the concern about the rising yield in Eurozone rises, too.
An high-level official at the European Central Bank worried the recent Yield Curves.
And the analysts at Bank of America predicted the dollar might be bullish more in the year. The expectation of the global economy recovery and the yield spread will support the dollar, they analyze. The U.S. news media CNBC foresaw the 10 percent of the U.S. economy growth in the first quarter.
Meanwhile, Jerome Powell, Fed Chair spoke the dovish stance and predicted the inflation wouldn't reach the Fed's goal in three years at least while his testimony.
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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.
Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD