Saturday, 31 July 2021
Friday, 30 July 2021
[JPY] Hovering Yen 2021 0731
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| USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of EUR at the CME. The positions are under the loss. It doesn't have any position of JPY, yet.
The currency pair USD/JPY lowered its peaks since July but it is confirmed that the price is supported around 109.35~40.
The currency pair failed to exceed 20 Moving Average in the four-hour chart Friday. It implies the bearish trend in the short term, the daily chart and the one-hour chart signals the bullish though. It is anticipated a mild bullish after the correction.
The pair is under the downward trend line. It doesn't seem to break through the trend line at once, there will be the attempt to exceed it though.
The risk-averse sentiment raised the dollar, and the dollar rose against the Japanese Yen, too.
The Fed's shift to the hawkish stance has supported the dollar's rally, and the concern of the inflation made the investors worry.
The US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) in June increased 0.4 percent, which was 0.5 percent in the previous release and the market expected 0.6% increase. It also increased 3.5 percent year-over-year, it recorded high in thirty years. But it was lower than the market's expectation, 3.7 percent. It is reported the Fed values the Core PCE Price Index.
James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis showed his hawkish again, and it helped the greenback's gain. He said, the inflation reached to Fed's expectation and the tapering should be begun in this fall and completed by the 1st quarter in the next year. He expected the more GDP growth in the 2nd half.
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Tuesday, 27 July 2021
[EUR] Rebounding EURO 2021 0728
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Bearish EURO 2021 0720
cf. [EUR] Falling EURO 2021 0713
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of EUR at the CME. The positions are under the loss.
One of the major currency pair EUR/USD rebounded from the downward trend. The pair exceeded the short-term bearish trend line and rose along the upper band of Bollinger Bands, touching 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart.
It was supported on 20 moving average while its correction and kept the rising.
It also attempts to exceed 20 moving average in the daily chart. If it succeed, the currency pair could rise to the upper band, 1.18836 in the daily chart and give the hint the bullish trend.
But there is always the possibility of the correction as the euro tries to exceed the 120 exponential moving average or the Europe session begins.
While the correction since late May, the euro has been supported on the bottom band. It implies the bearish flow is eased up. If the rebound is successful, the investors can think the euro is supported on 1.1750.
And the possibility of forming Double-tops pattern still remains, which supporting bearish trend in the weekly chart. The pattern is likely to pull the EUR/USD down to 1.16 and 1.13 in that order.
Dollar Index tracking the greenback against the basket of six major currencies retreated ahead of FOMC. It fell 0.18 percent to 92.447. It is expected the market participants just watch the market before the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference after the FOMC meeting.
The market watch the FOMC's action against the rapid inflation and the spread of COVID-19 delta variation.
The FOMC meeting result is released at 18:00(GMT), Wednesday and Fed chair's press conference is planned at 18:30(GMT).
The bond yields of the United States and Germany were downward. It is reported that the market participants think it is due to the central bank's quantitative ease and the concern of delta variation's spread.
But the US economy indices show the economy recovery in the US. The US CB Consumer Confidence hit 129.1, which is high since June 2020.
The International Monetary Fund anticipated the global GDP in the year to 6 percent keeping the previous outlook.
And Yonhap Informax, economy news service reported, the investors bought the greenback more from the last week. It diagnosed the global economy recovery and Fed's possible tapering made them buy the dollar.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs adjusted the GDP growth of Southeast countries due to the spread of the COVID-19 delta variation last week. It lowered the anticipated Indonesia's growth from 5.0 percent to 3.4 percent, that of Malaysia's from 6.2 percent to 4.9 percent and that of Singapore from 7.1 percent to 6.8 percent.
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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.
Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
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#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Friday, 23 July 2021
Monday, 19 July 2021
[EUR] Bearish EURO 2021 0720
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Falling EURO 2021 0713
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of EUR at the CME. The positions are under the loss.
The currency pair EUR/USD fluctuated in Bollinger Bands and it stepped down. Because the trend is bearish now.
The pair retreated as Europe session began and rebounded as New York session began. There were two sparks but it retreated in the end. The pair doesn't seem to rebound over 1.1807, 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart in the short term.
The currency pair moves in the downward tunnel in four-hour chart.
And there is the possibility of forming Double-tops pattern, supporting bearish trend in the weekly chart. The pattern is likely to pull the EUR/USD down to 1.16 and 1.13 in that order. There is still the possibility of euro's fluctuating in the Bollinger Bands, too. Then the pair rebound to 1.20, 20 moving average in the weekly chart first.
The spread of the delta variation of the COVID-19 made the investors get the risk-off sentiment again. And Dollar Index tracking dollar against the basket of the major six currencies rose 0.13 percent to 92.844, risky currencies sank to near three-month bottom.
Edward Moya, analyst of on-line Forex FDM Oanda diagnosed the concern to the delta variation raised the risk-averse sentiment. He forecasted the surge of the greenback and Japanese yen.
Ulrich Reutsmann, head of foreign exchange and commodities research at Commerzbank said, it was questionable whether we could return to pre-COVID-19 conditions even with increasing vaccination rates.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs adjusted the GDP growth of Southeast countries due to the spread of the COVID-19 delta variation last week. It lowered the anticipated Indonesia's growth from 5.0 percent to 3.4 percent, that of Malaysia's from 6.2 percent to 4.9 percent and that of Singapore from 7.1 percent to 6.8 percent.
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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.
Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
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Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
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#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Saturday, 17 July 2021
Tuesday, 13 July 2021
[EUR] Falling EURO 2021 0713
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Bearish EUR in the Short Term 2021 0706
cf. [EUR] The Euro in the correction 2021 0630
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of EUR at the CME. The positions are under the loss.
The currency pair EUR/USD which reached the upper band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart last week retreated bellow the upper band again. And the price of the pair dropped at beginning of Tuesday(GMT) in the one-hour chart.
The US CPI released at 12:30(GMT) was better than expected and it raised the greenback. The price of EUR/USD hit the bottom band of Bollinger in the hour charts and it slid along the bottom band.
The euro fell under 1.18. It may drop to 1.1778, the previous bottom. Then the euro will ride on the bearish trend in the short term.
And we need to watch the weekly chart of EUR/USD. The 20 Moving Average began to direct downward, it shows the bearish bias in mid-and-long term. And it implies the euro failed to break through the bearish trend line.
The greenback gained Monday ahead of Fed Chair's testimony and the release of the US CPI in June. CPI hit 0.9 percent better than expected 0.5 percent. The dollar jumped making the market participants have the bearish bias.
The hawkish stance of European Central Bank, ECB raised the euro last week, the euro collapsed Tuesday afternoon(GMT) though.
The Dollar Index tracking the dollar against the currency basket of major six currencies rose 0.12 percent to 92.237 on Monday.
The risk-averse sentiment is still valid due to the spread of the delta variation, the market moves moderately. The yields of the US 10-y note rebounded to 1.37x percent after the correction in the early session.
John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York spoke it's wrong to guess the new policy frame of the Fed calls the rapid hike of the benchmark rate.
And Thomas I. Barkin the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond diagnosed the US employment market not recovered sufficiently to do tapering.
ING analyzed the possibility of the weak greenback due to the CPI and Powell's testimony in the House of the Representatives. But TD Securities anticipated, the strong US economy indices and Powell's support of hawkish stance raise the dollar.
Meanwhile DowJones reported, Saxo Bank predicted the bullish euro in September after German parliament election. It expected the possible German ruling party would raise the bond yield and the euro rise.
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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.
Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Friday, 9 July 2021
Tuesday, 6 July 2021
[EUR] Bearish EUR in the Short Term 2021 0706
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |