Thursday, 25 August 2022
Sunday, 21 August 2022
Tuesday, 9 August 2022
[EUR] The Sidling Dollar ahead of CPI 2022 0810
cf. [EUR] The Expected Giant Step after the Non-farm Payrolls 2022 0806
The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.
Gjallarhorn has a short position of the euro in CME, now.
The currency pair EUR/USD has fluctuated for weeks. And it awaits the CPI, Consumer Price Index release on Wednesday. The up-and-down move in the sidling Bollinger Bands seems to accumulate the momentum.
The dollar was in the correction ahead of the U.S. CPI. The market reacts seriously if the CPI shows the inflation excceeds the market expectation. Because it support the Fed's hawkish stance.
The market expects CPI in July will be 8.7 percent less than that in June of 9.1 percent. The market thinks the inflationary pressure support the Fed's giant step. Someone forecasts the 100 bp hike of the benchmark rate in September.
The strategist Edward Moya of Oanda said, the additional bullish dollar if the inflation rises more and more.
A forex analyst of Societe Generale worried the inflation. He also agreed the more inflation will support the 75bp rate hike in September. He said, the Fed may hike the benchmark rate more and it isn't the time to sell the greenback.
An economist analysed the recession from the reversed U.S. yield curve but he expected the Fed would stop the rate hike and cut it in next year.
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Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
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Friday, 5 August 2022
[EUR] The Expected Giant Step after the Non-farm Payrolls 2022 0806
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.
Gjallarhorn has a short position of the euro in CME, now.
The currency pair EUR/USD plunged as the U.S. Non-farm payrolls was released on Friday. It still fluctuates in a channel though.
The pair has moved up and down in the sidling Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart.
The sidling currency pair seems to accumulate the momentum, upward or downward.
The euro has raised its bottom gradually above the parity, 1.00 in the weekly chart. But the trend is bearish explicitly.
The dollar surged as the U.S. Non-farm payrolls rose more than doubling market expectation on Friday. The record better than the expectation supported the market to think of the Fed's tightening policies. The U.S. Treasury Yield soared this day, too.
The Non-farm payrolls increased 528 thousands in July, which is double the market expectation, 258 thousand increasing.
The unemployment rate in July was 3.5 percent. It is below the market expectation, 3.6 percent.
Due to the records better than the expectation, the Dollar Index which tracks the greenback against the six peers rose 0.81 percent to 106.589. It rose 0.66 percent for a week.
The market expects the Fed's giant step in September, again. The probability of the giants step is evaluated 64.5 percent by the market according to the Fed Watch at Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
As the greenback surged, the euro plunged against the dollar. Because the European Central Bank, ECB doesn't seem to hike the benchmark rate as the Fed did. The euro sank though the good German economy record.
The Federal Reserve has hiked the Federal Funds Rate 75bp to 2.5 percent in the previous month. It was the giant step as the markets expected. The FOMC hiked the benchmark rate 75bp twice in a row.
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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.
Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #FOREX, #FXMargin, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD