[EUR] Rebounding euro in the short term 2022 1025

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has no position in CME and just watch the market now.

The currency pair EUR/USD has edged high after the head-and-shoulders pattern. It has exceeded the downward trend line, but it's hasty to guess the trend shift of the pair. The EUR/USD is still below the parity, and fluctuate the plain 120 exponential moving average.

And we need to watch the weekly chart, too. The price of the pair has risen. The 20 moving average is explicit downward and the EUR/USD is still below the moving average, but it is expected euro's rise in some weeks. It may try to step up 1.0098, too.

The currency pair seems to keep the bearish in mid-term. It could rebound after supporting on late 0.96 in months.

The currency pair EUR/USD rose 0.13 percent to 0.9874 in New York session, Monday.

The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against the six peers edged up 0.12 percent to 112.001.

The market expect the big step in December after the giant step in November. The market participants anticipated the 75bp hike of the benchmark rate in December, too, but they expect the 50bp hike in the last FOMC meeting in the year.

The falling EUR/USD succeeded to rebound at the end of the New York session, Monday. The Euro zone economy indices weren't good, though. The German Flash Manufacturing PMI released on Monday was 45.7 worse than the expectation 46.9 and the previous 47.8. The German Flash Services PMI was 44.9 worse than the expectation 45.0 and the previous 45.0.

The European Central Bank decide the benchmark interest rate, the Main Refinancing Rate on Thursday. It is expected the ECB raise 75bp and the rate is hiked to 2.00 percent.

The Fed members have showed the hawkish stance. Jerome Powell, Fed Chair has confirmed the rate hike, and Christopher Waller, the Fed member has supported the significant hike in the benchmark interest rate.

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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른][EUR] 진정되지 않는 인플레이션 압력 2022 1015

[EUR] Dead Cat Bounce? 2022 0914

 

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has no position in CME and just watch the market now.

The currency pair EUR/USD surged for a long time. It rose more one big last night.

The pair has formed the head-and-shoulders pattern which shows the bearish market in the four-hour chart. It rebounded after the sidling, and it reached the 120 exponential moving average moving along the upper band of the Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart.

The euro fell to 0.96s and it was supported on the price band. The downward trend was completed as the euro was supported the 0.96s in the short term. It sank below the support band for a moment after the risen release of CPI but it succeeded to recover the price.

The euro has risen to the 20 moving average, and it has both possibility of rise and fall in the daily chart.

But the main trend is still bearish. The weekly chart and the monthly chart still show the explicit downward trend of the EUR/USD and the bullish greenback.

Though the euro rises against the dollar, it may retreat below the parity.

It is still available to keep the short bias to the euro and buy the dollar.

As the U.S. CPI showed the unchanged inflation pressure, the dollar rose. But it lost the momentum against the major peers shortly. The risk of the economy indices was already reflected and the risk-on sentiment dropped the greenback, the analysts thought.

And the Dollar Index tracking the dollar against the currency basket of the six peers fell 0.70 percent to 112.491.

The U.S. CPI in September was 8.2-percent rise year-on-year. It is higher than the expectation 8.1 percent rise. The core CPI was 6.6 percent, higher than the expectation, too.

The CPI stimulated the investor's concern about the hawkish Fed stance. The FOMC meeting minutes released the prior day showed the hawkish members' opinion.

But the risk-averse sentiment was already reflected before the release of the meeting minutes and the CPI, some experts analysed, too. The Treasury Note yield just rose 6 bp to 3.96 percent, the media reported.

The euro rose against the dollar as the risk-on sentiment was recovered. But it has moved below the parity. It was reported, the hawkish ECB stance doesn't overwhelm the U.S. Fed's.

The market experts expect the Fed's continuous giant step in November, too. Shima Shah, strategist at Principal Asset Management said, there was no one in the market who believed the Fed would hike the benchmark interest rate below 75 bp after the CPI. He added, the benchmark rate might be hiked 75 bp in December, too.

The Fed members have showed the hawkish stance. Jerome Powell, Fed Chair has confirmed the rate hike, and Christopher Waller, the Fed member has supported the significant hike in the benchmark interest rate.

-----

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail. 

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

PayPal  kmuk001@gmail.com. 

Thank you.

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http://morgenluft.blogspot.com

#Gjallarhorn, #FOREX, #FXMargin, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD

[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른]인문학이 들려주는 트레이딩 원리 #8 - 성자필쇠