[EUR] Colliding Two Bias

EUR/USD 4-hour chart, source:forexfactory.com

Donald Trump, U.S. President supports weak dollar to be more competitive in the trade war. His policy may lead weak greenback during his tenure.

But economy leader Jerome Powell is hawkish. Powell, chair of Federal Reserved System gave notice of benchmark-rate hike in the year. It is very powerful event to the currency market and it makes U.S. dollar up.

The plan of benchmark hike is already known to the participants in the last year. Participants in the market say, known news is not the news any more. Already kown planned event may fail to make new trend, as the market events have shown.

Mario Draghi, president of Europe Central Bank or ECB spoke on Wednesday that ECB would keep the financial policies. He spoke ECB benchmark rate would be kept in low for long time. Unrising interest rate can't provoke the surge of EURO price. As he confirmed the consitent economy policy, the price of currency pair EUR/USD falled.

In technical analysis, the four-hour chart of the pair lowered its peaks and made the double-tops pattern which is known to trend-turning to down pattern. The try to break through 1.24 has failed and the price is tested whether price-support-band, 1.2300~1.2340 remains availably.

Two opposed bias collides, but I bet to short position, weak greenback. It's not problem, correct anticipation is not prior to money management. We may win the anticipation or not. But we need to money management including loss-cut is more important.

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[EUR] 上昇する不確実性

EUR / USD 4時間チャート、出典：MT4

今日は13時20分（UTC）、今日は10時（UTC）からドル/円相場が急騰する。しかし、価格が上昇傾向を続けるかどうかは不明ではない。価格上昇要因と価格低下要因が同時に存在するためです。

連邦保有システムの議長、前Janet Yellen議長、ジェロームパウエル議長は、連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）がその年に何度かベンチマーク金利を引き上げるとの見通しを示した。それは強力なドル建てと通貨ペアの下落をサポートします。

しかし、米国大統領のドナルド・トランプ氏は、貿易戦争で米財が価格競争力を持つためには弱いドル建てを支持している。今月からEUR / USDの価格が上昇した。

米ドルの基本は不確実で混乱している。

テクニカル分析のためにチャートを見る必要がありますが、ヒントもありません。価格は2016年後半から上昇し、上昇傾向を示した。そして、それは利用可能なようです。

しかし、それは2008年以来行われている下降トレンドラインに近づき、週間チャートで非常に強力なものになる可能性があります。そして、すぐに2月中旬から下降トレンドラインに直面しているようだ。トレンドに転じるかもしれないし、まさに訂正に向かうかもしれない。

4時間のチャートでは、通貨ペアの価格は三角形のパターンであり、トラップされているようです。

通貨ペアへの私の偏見は短いです。なぜなら、パウエルのベンチマーク・ハイキングについては、トランプの為替政策よりも大きな重みを付けているからです。それは価格が三角形パターンの底を打ち破るのを待つ必要がある、と私は思う。

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[EUR] Rising Uncertainty

EUR/USD 4-hour chart, source:MT4

It's 13:20(UTC), now and the price of currecny pair EUR/USD surges from 10:00(UTC), today. But it's not uncertain that the price will continue its upward trend. Because there are price-rising factor and price-falling factor simultaneously.

Chairs of Federal Reserved System, ex-chair Janet Yellen and chair Jerome Powell have hinted Fed will raise its benchmark rate several times in the year. It supports strong greenback and price-down of currency pair.

But Donald Trump, U.S. President supports weak greenback for U.S. goods to have price competiveness in the trade war. The price of EUR/USD has risen since this month.

The fundamental of U.S. dollar is uncertain and confused.

We need to watch the chart for the technical analysis, it doesn't hint, either. The price has risen since late 2016 and made the upward trend line. And it seems to be available.

But it approaches the downward trend line which is made since 2008 and may be very powerful in the weekly chart. And it seems to face the downward trend line made since mid February, soon. It may fall to the trend turning or just to the correction.

In four-hour chart, price of the currency pair is in the triangle pattern and it seems to be trapped.

My bias to the currency pair is short. Because I place greater weight on Powell's statement of benchmark hike than Trump's exchange rate policy. It need to wait the price breaks down bottom of triangle pattern, I think.

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