[EUR] After FOMC 2019 0919

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias? 2019 0916
cf. [EUR] ECB and Fed  2019 0910

FOMC meeting result was not different with market's expectation. Federal Reserve cut Federal Funds Rate 25bp, or 0.25 percent to 1.75~2.00 percent on Wednesday.

The cut of benchmark interest rate usually lowers its currency price. And possible US dollar and dollar index's fall is not abnormal. But market moved dollar long because Fed didn't hint at the additional cut. It seems to freeze the interest rate till next year, but some members want more rate cut in the year.

Market analysts think Fed will freeze the benchmark interest rate and looks global economy positively. No more interest rate cut in the year may still lead strong greenback, market wants more dovish action of Fed.

And the indicate about Germany, German ZEW Economic Sentiment was -22.5. But the expectation was -38.0 and improved index led euro to rise.

The downward trend line in eur/usd daily chart and four-hour chart is still valid, and it support long dollar and short euro with Fed's statement.

In short term, currency pair eur/usd can rise till the trend line or upper band of Bollinger Bands, 1.1061~1.1070.

The Short position of micro Euro-FX or M6EZ19 which I have held, was liquidated on Tuesday, because euro rose. Whether it was closed with profit or loss, it meant that my short bias was wrong in short term.







e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com


Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report


https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
https://www.facebook.com/heimdallr999/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com



Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] Still Short Bias? 2019 0916

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] ECB and Fed  2019 0910

European Central Bank froze Main Refinancing Rate to 0.0 percent last Thursday. The market expected the rate might be cut to negative 0.1 percent but only the deposit rate was cut to -0.5 percent.

And ECB lowered GDP in euro zone, this year and planned to begin Quantitative Easing program again from November.

As ECB froze the benchmark interest rate, currency pair EUR/USD dived to 1.0926 the lowest level in two years but it succeeded to rebound making 'V pattern'. The news of Top two economies' resuming trade talk supported risky asset.

It is reported that Germany, Number one economy entity in Europe planned the Shadow budget to invest in infrastructure and preventing climate change, and it raised euro, relatively risk asset.

It rose to 1.1106 and retreats below 1.1100 in Asian session, Monday.

FOMC meeting is hold this week. Market participants anticipate Fed will cut Federal Funds Rate, 25bp to 2.0~1.75 percent band.

The positive expectation of small deal in the trade tension and anticipated benchmark interest cut may lower dollar and support euro. But pessimistic outlook on euro economy and the attack to petroleum refinement facilities in Saudi Arabia may restrain euro.

The downward trend line since third quarter in 2018 is still available and resists against euro's rising. And the expected Fed's interest cut doesn't boost euro sufficiently.

And it seems that euro hovers in Bollinger Bands.

Gjallarhorn has Short position of micro Euro-FX or M6EZ19. When the position was gotten, I thought ECB's decision would lead euro down. The position records loss now, but the short position will be hold for a while.










e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com


Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report


https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
https://www.facebook.com/heimdallr999/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com



Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화

[EUR] ECB and Fed 2019 0910

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

One of the currency pairs, EUR/USD rose 0.22 percent yesterday. It is reported that Germany, Number one economy entity in Europe planned the Shadow budget to invest in infrastructure and preventing climate change, and it raised euro, relatively risk asset. And the German exports in July increased 0.7 percent MoM, which was expected negative growth.

The positive signal between top 2 economy countries the United States and China under the trade war helped euro, too. The trade negotiation is planned to resume in next month and Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Treasury Secretary denied recession being visible in the United States and anticipated the U.S. economy growth in the year while the interview with Fox Business on Monday.

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair hinted the additional benchmark interest rate cut on next Wednesday. The market expects 25bp or 0.25 percent interest cut in FOMC meeting.

But these news didn't raise euro sufficiently, ECB is believed to cut benchmark-interest cut and continue Quantitative Easing.

Bloomberg reported economists survey that European Central Bank led by Mario Draghi may cut Main Refinancing Rate to -0.1 percent on Thursday. It is zero percent, now. And they expect ECB resume Asset Buying again to boost Europe economy.

GDP in euro zone, 2nd quarter recorded 0.2 percent growth, it was 0.4 percent in first quarter.

Governor of the Bank of Finland already claimed more strong package including QE and interest cut last month.

The pair is 1.1044 in Asian session, now. Euro FX September(6EU19) records 1.10495 in Asian session, too. It is expired in the week. 6EZ19(December) price is 1.11245. It moves in narrow channel.

The daily chart and the four-hour chart keep downward trend. When euro rose due to good economy news, it failed to break through 120 EMA and change the trend in four-hour chart. It tests to break through 120 EMA and resistance line again but it is not sure to succeed yet.

It seem to move up and down in the Bollinger Band till ECB spoke benchmark rate on Thursday. And we need to watch FOMC meeting next week, too.








e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com


Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report


https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
https://www.facebook.com/heimdallr999/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com



Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화