[EUR] Awating Two Big Events 2019 1210

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] EURO Trying to Reach Upper Band, 1.1161 2019 1205
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro in Short Term 2019 1202
cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD is 1.10670 and futures item, Eurof FX-201912 or 6EZ19 is 1.10720 as of 02:17(UTC).

Euro moves in the triangle pattern and its volatility becomes small. Because greenback is under the mixed state as scheduled day of more U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods comes.

As the risk of the fail of U.S.-Sino trade talks has risen, dollar retreated. The deadline of the small deal is Sunday, December 15.

But expectation of the deal is uncertain, and it presses currencies' volatility.

And another big event is planned this week, FOMC, Federal Open Market Committee is hold. FOMC decide U.S. benchmark interest rate and the market expect it would be frozen, 1.75 percent.

It is known the dollar long position is increased. Though the trade war between economy top two, the U.S. economy is still better than another economy entities such as euro zone, and emerging markets.

We need to keep in mind ECB's currency policy of Quantitative Easing in next year. And we should listen to some analysts' careful expectation of weak greenback in next year, too. There are U.S. President election, the possibility of top two economy entities' deal and rebound of euro zone economy.

Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position now. The position would be gotten in next year.

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[EUR] EURO Trying to Reach Upper Band, 1.1161 2019 1205

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

[EUR] EURO Trying to Reach Upper Band, 1.1161 2019 1205

cf. [EUR] Rising Euro in Short Term 2019 1202
cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129

The currency of euro zone, euro rises in spot market as well as futures market. Futures, EURO-FX 201912 or 6EZ19 is 1.11005, 0.14 percent high and currency pair EUR/USD is 1.10939 as of 11:35(UTC).

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD is likely to rise to 1.11617 or upper band of Bollinger Bands and the latest value of trend line. Euro succeeded to exceed 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart and we are able to expect more rising of euro. The first goal is the upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart and it's 1.11617 as mentioned above.

And it is previous high and peaks of double-tops pattern in the daily chart.

But it isn't mean that euro has begun to rally. Euro zone economy is still bad and the United States' is not on the other hand.

Though dollar Index, dollar's value against the basket of major six currencies falls, it affects emerging markets' currencies not euro.

We need to still watch the euro with short bias in the long term.

Small deal of U.S-Sino trade talks affects greenback positively at this time. The expectation of the deal has raised dollar against Japanese yen and euro.

And we need to watch Friday's Non-farm payrolls, too. Market expects 186 thousands increasing, and 128 thousand payrolls increased in November report.

Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position on euro. Because book-closing is coming. The position will be gotten in next year.

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[EUR] Rising Euro in Short Term 2019 1202

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129
cf. [EUR] Preparing Rebound II 2019 1126
cf. [EUR] Preparing Rebound 2019 1124
cf. [USDX] Still Rising Greenback 2019 1122

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD is likely to break through 1.10238 or upper band of Bollinger Bands, and 1.1039x or 120 Exponential Moving Average and trend line made in four-hour chart. Euro price is 1.10227 in EUR/USD and futures, euro-fx 201912 is 1.10325as of 13:26(UTC).

But its movement is expected to be done in a narrow channel ahead of FOMC meeting in next week.

Though Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Right Acts, top two economies which is under the trade war will sign the small deal of the trade talks soon, market participants expect. And this led New York stock market and the risky asset active.

New York equities recorded historical high in last week.

But long-term trend of euro is still downward, we need to watch the market with short bias.

If it exceeds the downtrend line made in weekly chart, it could rise over 1.1199 or upper band of Bollinger Bands, and it may reach to 1.1386, 120 exponential moving average.


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