[EUR] Short Bias on EURO 2020 0406

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Bearish Euro 2020 0403

Euro returned almost its gain in dollar last week. The price of euro formed the typical downturn pattern, Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the four-hour chart of EUR/USD, last week, again. The previous pattern lowered euro to 1.0659 against greenback. We watch the chart carefully whether it falls below previous bottom.

It is reasonable to think euro keeps falling in the week. Though it may rebound, euro is restrained at 1.0852 around upper band of Bollinger Bands in one-hour chart or som 1.09, 20 Moving Average in the four-hour chart.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls released on last Friday decreased 701 thousands than previous month. It increased 275 thousands in February and market expected minus 100 thousands this time.

Worse than predicted payrolls disappointed the investors and the currency pair EUR/USD fell last week.

And the unemployment claims which was released on last Thursday hit more 6.6 millions and recorded historical high. It was 3.3 millions last week. This means almost 10 millions workers has lost their jobs for two weeks.

The health care problem of COVID-19 affects finance market as well as real economy.

First, the pandemic coronavirus should be controlled. Then the market will return to the normal state. As well as watching the chart and news, we have to be interested in the news about the pandemic.

Fed has begun its QE program. It lowers the cost of borrowing dollar in funding market. The spread of three-months FX swap has diminished shortly. And it cut benchmark interest rate to near zero percent. These would raise the price of currency pair EUR/USD.


Gjallarhorn find the appropriate entry point for LONG position of euro. It may take time.
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[EUR] Bearish Euro 2020 0403

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2020 0330
cf. [EUR] Recovering Euro 2020 0327
cf. [EUR] Just Watching the Market 2020 0323
cf. [EUR] Euro in Complicated Crisis 2020 0316

The currency pair EUR/USD makes the price-down Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the four-hour chart, again. The peak of the pattern is 1.1141 and lower than previous peak.

It is expected that euro may fall to 1.0804 first and it could sink to the adjusted support line, 1.0663.

Unemployment Claims which was released on Thursday hit more 6.6 millions and recorded historical high. It was 3.3 millions last week. This means almost 10 millions workers has lost their jobs for two weeks.

Dollar Index, dollar's value against the basket of major six currencies, rose 0.7 percent to 100.181. It exceeded 100 again in two weeks.

Worse economy score boosted dollar against euro.

The problem on currency market is the pandemic of corona virus, COVID-19. Over China and South Korea, it spreads to Europe and America. The infectees around the world increased over  one million and more 240 thousands in the United States on early Friday.

Though the effort of governors and presidents of central banks, finance market is still in turmoil. Fed's QE program is not effective to greenback's stay, yet.

Rising fear of the pandemic makes safety-asset, dollar surge. And historical record of unemployment claims in recent two weeks boosted it.

We need to watch the market carefully and confirm the Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday. Market forecasts the decrease of 100 thousands slots.

Recalling the memory in 2008, Global Financial Crisis, greenback rose and euro plunged against dollar.

But due to Fed's QE program, the cost of borrowing dollar decreased in funding market. The spread of three-months FX swap has diminished shortly.

It gives the hope of euro's rebounding after unemployment claims and non-farm payrolls.

After Non-Farm Payrolls release, we should euro's direction. Diving or rebounding.

Gjallarhorn liquidated the long position of euro-fx at CME and has a plan to deal euro after checking Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday.
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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른]FX마진이란 무엇인가 #7