Saturday, 5 September 2020
[EUR] After Non-Farm Payrolls 2020 0905
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] EUR, Trying to Exceed 1.20 2020 0902
cf. [EUR] Before Powell's Speech 2020 0827
cf. [EUR] Moderate Euro before Powell's Speech 2020 0826
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2020 0821
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It records the loss because euro has retreated for days. Euro needs to exceed 1.20 in order for Gjallahorn's losses to turn into profit.
The currency pair, EUR/USD made the head-and-shoulders pattern which shows the downtrend conversion in the one-hour chart. And the price of the pair dropped to 1.1788. It tried to rebound but failed after touching the upper band of Bollinger Bands.
The price fell after the US Non-Farm Payrolls and formed the V pattern in the one-hour chart. It is not uncertain whether it succeeds to rebound and reach to 1.20, yet.
Though euro has been in the correction, it is supported the mild support line in the four-hour chart. And we can find the price of the currency pair has been supported by 20 Moving Average in the daily chart, and it gives the long bias of euro to the market participants.
Dollar rose due to the better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Dollar Index, dollar's value against the currency basket of major six currencies rose 0.04 percent to 92.781.
Non-Farm Payrolls' record made the market participants expect the recovery of the US economy and supported the greenback. But the correction of the stocks in the technology sector reduced dollar.
And the unemployment rate in August dropped to 8.4 percent, which was expected 9.8 percent. That in July was 10.2 percent.
Dollar gained due to good Non-Farm Payrolls and lowered unemployment rate, it doesn't change the bias of weak greenback though. Gjallarhorn still has the outlook of weak dollar and strong euro. And the market analysts guess dollar is on the downward trend, too.
Because the US economy growth is worried and the benchmark interest rate is anticipated low for a long time. And Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke the Flexible Average Inflation Targeting which implies Fed will not raise the benchmark interest rate though the inflation hit over 2 percent.
The experts in Wall Street pointed out that the increase in the number of jobs is good news, but it takes long time for the US economy to recover.
Analysts predict that the dollar will continue to weaken for at least three months, depending on the Fed's monetary policy outlook.
Dow Jones reported on Friday that Bank of America (BoA) has upgraded the eurozone's economic outlook this year from -7.9% to -7.3%. However, the growth rate for next year was lowered from 4.3% to 3.8%.
Netherlands's bank ING forecasted euro's rise to 1.20 in one month. After this correction euro keeps upward rise due to the fundamental momentum.
Vice-Fed Chair, Richard H. Clarida spoke the natural rate of interest had gradually dropped since 2012 and began to reconsider the monetary-policy frame. And he hinted FOMC might use Yield Curve Control(YCC) if needed.
Meanwhile German government adjusted German economy growth up to minus 5.8 percent, which was -6.3 percent when released in April.
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Tuesday, 1 September 2020
[EUR] EUR, Trying to Exceed 1.20 2020 0902
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Before Powell's Speech 2020 0827
cf. [EUR] Moderate Euro before Powell's Speech 2020 0826
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2020 0821
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It records the loss because it was bought at the local peak. Euro needs to exceed 1.20 in order for Gjallahorn's losses to turn into profit.
The currency pair EUR/USD retreated after the US ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday. It recorded 56.0 better than market's expectation. It supported the recovering US economy and the investors bought the greenback.
The pair tries to form the head-and-shoulders pattern and the price could drop to 1.1820, 120 exponential moving average of four-hour chart. The price fluctuates in the channel in four-hour chart and daily chart, and it seems to accumulate the momentum up or down.
Gjallarhorn expects euro will rise over 1.20 and it saves the momentum of exceeding it.
The better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI supported the falling greenback on Tuesday. Before the release-it, euro recorded 1.20, the highest peak in 52 weeks. The speech of Jerome Powell, Fed Chair at Jackson Hole Symposium made dollar plunge. He confirmed 'the Average Inflation Targeting' which admit the 2 percent over of inflation and there will not be the hike of the benchmark interest rate in long term.
But good record in the US manufacturing sector turned greenback to upward.
Fed Chair, Powell denied the possible negative benchmark interest rate in May.
It was 56.0 and the market consensus was 50.0. It was high since November 2018.
Societe General has diagnosed that the euro's long position against the dollar was too much, and it has burdened.
Though US dollar rose on Tuesday, the downward trend of greenback is still valid, Gjallarhorn thinks.
Netherlands's bank ING forecasted euro's rise to 1.20 in one month. After this correction euro keeps upward rise due to the fundamental momentum.
Vice-Fed Chair, Richard H. Clarida spoke the natural rate of interest had gradually dropped since 2012 and began to reconsider the monetary-policy frame. And he hinted FOMC might use Yield Curve Control(YCC) if needed.
Meanwhile German government adjusted German economy growth up to minus 5.8 percent, which was -6.3 percent when released in April.
---------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD