[EUR] Retreating EURO 2021 0205

 

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Plunged Euro 2021 0203

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market and holds the loss.

The currency pair EUR/USD fell forming the Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the daily chart. The traders need to keep in mind, the price may retreat to 1.1925, 120 exponential moving average and 1.1874, support band in the daily chart. It is 1.1954 as of 04:00 (GMT).

The dollar's rally seems to be temporary. The main consensus in the market is still bearish dollar, and Gjallarhorn analyses euro to be bought after the rebound.

The dollar rose hitting two month high to 1.1956 Thursday. The Dollar index tracking dollar against the six major-currencies basket rose 0.46%% to 91.53.

As the market participants expected the U.S. economy would recover more quickly but Eurozone economy might fall into the double dip, the greenback hit the two month high. Euro plunged below 1.20 since last December.

The unemployment claims which was 770 thousands less than the market's expectation supported the U.S. dollar, too. The Wall Street forecasted 830-thousand increasing.

Yonhap Infomax reported, the expectation of U.S. fiscal stimulus package progress speeding up supported the dollar. 

The House of Representative pass the stimulus package and it is expected the Senators process it in the week, too.

The materials of fiscal stimulus have supported euro since the pandemic. It remind us, the news of the agreement of the fiscal stimulus being failed  while the meeting between President, Joe Biden and GOP senators supported the greenback.

Whatever the news, the dollar has rallied recently.

And Charles Evans, governor of Chicago Federal Bank said, hyper-easing monetary policy needed to be maintained while predicting that the economy will rebound rapidly this year.

The strategists look the risk of falling euro in the short term still remains due to the slow speed of the anti-COVID-19 vaccine injection, Yonhap Infomax reported.

And Bank of America said return to focus on fundamentals including relative rates in FX markets will likely support the dollar through the year amid a pick-up U.S. government bond yields, Investing.com reported.

But some analysts think the bullish greenback will be temporary. Investimg.com reported, this dollar's rally was nothing more than "noise" and would eventually fade as U.S. Treasury yields are set to run out of steam, citing Citi Bank's comment.

The Non-Farm Payrolls is released on Friday. It may lead the direction of euro in the short term.

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Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[EUR] Plunged Euro 2021 0203

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

cf. [EUR] 조정을 겪은 유로 2021 0202

cf. [EUR] Sidling EUR 2021 0201

cf. [EUR] 여전히 갈림길에 선 유로화 2021 0129 

cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2021 0128

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market. 

The currency pair EUR/USD has slipped below 1.2050, falling to the lowest levels since early December.

As the anticipation of the injection of anti-COVID-19 vaccine and the economy recovery in the United States may be completed faster than that in Eurozone, was supported, euro plunged. The euro barely succeeded in rebound at the end of New York session.

The Dollar Index tracking dollar against the currency basket composed of major six currencies rose 0.06 percent to 91.091.

The possible extension of lockdown in some Europe countries lowered euro to the bottom in two months. The market is concerned the more negative growth in Eurozone in the first quarter.

But the euro could rebound due to the market's consensus of less effectiveness of the possible negative benchmark interest rate.

The economy news agency, Yonhap Infomax reported, the short covering of short-position raised the dollar.

The President, Joe Biden met GOP senators but failed to reach the deal of the fiscal stimulus package. The news supported the greenback, too.

But a lot of market participants thought the recent bullish greenback was just the correction of falling dollar index which fell seven percent in last year, Yonhap Infomax reported.

Meanwhile IMF, the International Monetary Fund forecasted the 5.5 percent growth of the world economy in the year with the World Economic Outlook Report. It was adjusted 0.3 percent point up than the 5.2 percent of the expectation in last October. IMF anticipated the vaccine injection against COVID-19 would help the economy recovery.

The currency pair forms the V pattern which shows the rapid trend-turning pattern in the one-hour chart. The price of 1.2050s failed to support euro and the price of 1.20xx was tested as a support price band.

Whatever euro's trend line, euro has the minimal margin of rising to 1.2085 which is 20 moving average in the four-hour chart in the short term.

There is the possibility of forming the Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the daily chart and the weekly chart. The possible pattern is made below the bearish trend line and it supports the price of the pair may be on the bearish trend. It is not coincident with the market's expectation.

The investors may be stand on the cross road again with the incongruity between the technical analysis and the market's consensus.

Gjallarhorn hopes the bullish euro.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail.

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft) 

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

PayPal  kmuk001@gmail.com. 

Thank you.

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

Telegram - @morgenluft

Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report

https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/

http://morgenluft.blogspot.com

#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD

[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른][EUR] 조정을 겪은 유로 2021 0202