[EUR] Rebounding Euro 2022 0113

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

 

Gjallarhorn has no postion just watching the market.

 

The one of the major currency pair, EUR/USD began to rise after the long fluctuation. It broke through the flat Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart.

 

The 20 Moving Average and the 120 Exponential Moving Average and the price are placed on the regular arrangement. The daily chart also shows the rising price of the euro. It supports the upward trend of the euro.

 

There was the double-tops pattern in the weekly chart, and the pattern was made and the price prepares to form another pattern after being supported on 1.1220s.

 

Gjallarhorn thinks it is reasonable to get the bullish bias to the currency pair in the short-and-mid term.

 

The currency pair EUR/USD rose on Wednesday though the surging inflation in the United States. As the market diagnosed the inflation rose in the acceptable range. And the market participants anticipate the hike of the benchmark interest rate in March.

 

The pair rose to 1.14xx since last November due to the risk-on sentiment. It is 1.1439 as of 03:00(GMT) according to the FXDD.com chart. The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against the currency basket of six major currencies stepped down 0.72 percent to 94.933 at the end of New York session.

 

The U.S. CPI in December recorded high for forty years, the dollar retreated though. The CPI increased by seven percent compared to last year. The Federal Reserve said, the U.S. economy grew at a modest pace from early November to late December.

The Fed Chair Jerom Powell testified at the parliament and spoke the hawkish statements. His comments were in the market’s expectation.

 

The members of the Fed showed the hawkish stance.

 

James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis claimed the interest hike and anticipated the four times of the hike in this year.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester also said she would support the Fed to raise rates in March if the economy maintains current trends.

 

Fed hinted the tapering size would increase double and be completed in March early than expected June while the FOMC meeting minutes.

 

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[EUR] The Hawkish Fed and the Stable Euro 2021 1216

 

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Omicron, Inflation and Fluctuating Euro 2021 1202

cf. [EUR] New Variant and the Strong Safe-haven Asset 2021 1128 https://youtu.be/PPfYePfIV4I

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has no postion just watching the market.

The currency pair EUR/USD fluctuates in the channel without the explicit trend.

The currency pair is still bearish and on the upward trend line in the weekly chart. The pair is supported the trend line yet.

But the euro fluctuates in the narrow channel in the daily and the hours charts.

It is recommended just to watch the market for a while.

The Dollar Index tracking the dollar against the currency basket composed of the six major currencies fell 0.23 percent to 96.365.

The Federal Reserve reconfirmed its hawkish stance after the FOMC meeting. The inflation risk was high, FOMC members thought.

The word 'transitory' which had expressed the inflation was deleted in this FOMC statement. The Fed had spoken the inflation was transitory.

Fed decided to freeze the benchmark interest rate but double the tapering size to 30 billion dollar a month while the FOMC meeting. It is expected the tapering is completed in March, 2022.

The released dot diagram has made the market expects the three-times interest rate hike in the next year.

The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell spoke the economy growth and prospect adjustment made the revision of the currency policy while the press conference after the FOMC meeting.

The economy news agency Bloomberg evaluated this Fed's policy in this year was most hawkish.

The market experts in the major investment banks anticipate the first interest-rate hike in next March, in which the tapering will be completed.

And they expect the interest hike will be done three times in the next year according to Bank of Korea.

The analysts at Bank of America expected the interest rate would be risen 0.25 percent point, nine times from 2022. The specialists at Citi Bank anticipated so, too.

The Forex market is stable though the Fed showed hawkish policies. The market specialists analysed the Fed moved in the anticipated range and the uncertainty had been cleared.

Some analysts think the risk-on sentiment will be back.

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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail.

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft) 

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

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Thank you.

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[EUR] Omicron, Inflation and Fluctuating Euro 2021 1202

 

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] New Variant and the Strong Safe-haven Asset 2021 1128 https://youtu.be/PPfYePfIV4I

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has liquidated the Short position of Euro at CME and has no postion. It still has the short bias on the euro.

After the sharp fluctuation, the currency pair EUR/USD moved up and down in the diminishing channel in one-hour chart and the four-hour chart. The pair reached the 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart in the early week but it failed to exceed it.

The pair hasn't exceeded the 20 moving average in the daily chart in the daily chart, yet.

There aren't the explicit patterns and the signals in the charts, and it is not recommended to get new positions. It is needed to watch the market without the trading now.

The risk-averse sentiment was taken due to the cases of omicron variant in the United States.

The cases of omicron variant raised the Japanese yen, safe-haven asset.

And the euro retreated against the dollar, as the Fed showed its hawkish explicitly and is expected to show the different stance from the European Central Bank's.

The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell testified at the committee of the House of Representatives and spoke the tapering acceleration would be discussed in the FOMC meeting in December. He spoke the possibility of the early termination of the tapering.

And the ADP Non-farm Payrolls in November increased 534 thousands, higher than market's expectation 506 thousands.

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Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail.

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft) 

e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com

You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

PayPal  kmuk001@gmail.com. 

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Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report

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#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD