Trend Stronger than News?

EUR/USD H1 chart, source:forexfactory.com

H4 chart, source:forexfactory.com

 Ifo Business Climate, announced in late months is one of the powerful economic gauge on Euro. Ifo's index on 25th recorded 107.3 worse than expected 108.5. It means Euro's plunge empirically.

But Euro's movement was different than previous that. As the gauge was announced, the price fell some 4 pips. Then the EUR/USD pair rebounded soon, and it plummeted to 1.0808. It rebounded again. It fell just 18 pips from the time of the announcement.

Euro moved back for a while due to the bad news but it kept the bullish trend. And it showed another feature about powerful gauge Ifo's Biz Climates.

M5 chart, source:forexfactory.com

Though the incline has been modified, long trend is available as ever. Long bias is available if the negative effect by the news are watched. Modified incline may be adjusted again, then the pair has the possibility of being in the trap of the box.

Strong Euro to USD is made by the more Quantity Ease in Europe. Europe Central Bank, ECB has kept the interest rate 0.05 percent though U.S. Fed rose the rate, and the economic climate is not better than that in the United States.

More QE and currency war among the advanced countries are planned, and it makes the investors conservative to the market.

Desire to Rally: EURO

EUR/USD H4 CHART, source:forexfactory.com

EUR/USD H1 CHART, source: forexfactory.com

EUR/USD monthly chart, source:forexfactory.com

Euro plunged against US Dollar about one big on Thursday, and it seems that the announcement of US unemployment claims have made it.

The US unemployment claims recorded 293,000 which was worse than expected of 279,000. The previous gauge was 283 thousands.

This index has made market participants watch the global economy worse and the desire for the safety asset higher, I think.

And the oil price which was in the downward rallied now.

We need to watch the monthly chart of EUR/USD pair closely. The chart has showed that the price of Euro against USD has been lowered and the peaks have lowered gradually since 2008. But from the last year, the price attempted to rebound making the double-bottoms pattern.

Though Euro has fallen to rally last year, it is making the rally pattern. It takes time to complete the rally pattern in the monthly  chart, and it has the possibility of the pattern which drives to falling. But the participants' desire of the rally is shown on the chart, and the pressure gauge of the it becomes higher.

In 4-hour chart, the price made the double-bottoms pattern and rallied but plunged again on Thursday breaking down the long trend line. It seems that the price is in the chaos band in short terms.

Continuous Downward of POUND

GBP/USD monthly chart, source:forexfactory.com

The pair of GBP/USD shows the downward trend continuously though it has attempt the rally. The monthly chart shows it apparently.

Since 2009, the pair has moved in the tunnel and sidled along. But it attempts to fall below bottom of the box range in this month. In 4-hour chart and 1-hour chart, GBP/USD pair steps down.

The short bias on this currency pair is available for a while, I thought.

H4 chart, source: forexfactory.com

GBP/USD H1 chart, source: forexfactory.com