Short Bias Available in Short Term

EUR/USD 4-Hour chart, source:forexfactory.com

The four-hour chart tells the downward of EURO against US Dollar. And we have no difficulty of expectation of weak Euro for a while. What do we forecast with the plunging with some adjustments chart? 

It seems to be reasonable that watch the market with short bias though we don't ask to toddler whether it's long or not.

EUR/USD weekly chart, source:forexfactory.com

And what does the weekly chart of EUR/USD tell us? The major currency pair EUR/USD has traveled on downward trend since 2014. The short bias is seemed to be available. But the pair tried the rebound from the last year on the weekly chart. It didn't turn the direction up but didn't helplessly fall more. The historical parity of EUR/USD, h1 EUR = 1 USD' may make the participants burdensome. Euro, fallen near the parity, raises its bottoms. This plunge may be interpreted the adjustment in the weekly chart.

The short position by the simple idea from the hours charts may harm the account, the weekly chart tells.

In June, the important economic events are planned. And it's need to be watched the some economic news. On Wednesday (01:00, GMT) China speaks its Manufacturing PMI, OPEC meeting is hold on Thursday. ECB, European Central Bank speaks the Minimum Bid Rate at 11:00(GMT) on Thursday. The most powerful periodical economic index, U.S. Non-farm employment changes is announced at 12:30(GMT) or 8:30(US Eastern Time), Friday.

In late June, the English referendum about the Brexit is held.

Trend Wins the News

EUR/USD 1-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

One of the impact economic index, German Ifo business climate is announced 107.7 advanced than prior index and expected value of 106.9 at 08:00 GMT. EUR/USD naturally reacted to the Ifo indicator and the good news lead the price to edge up. But the candle in 1-hour chart and 5-minute chart failed to make its feature long positive candle but left the sharp dodge on the chart respectively.

In ordinary market circumstance, the good news from the impact economic index makes the price high, and the raising circumstance continues in the short or mid terms. But today's flow isn't ordinary. The pressure of the price to down was stronger than the impact of the news. Therefore the EUR/USD failed to rebound and it sidles and seems to fall again.

The market watches the decision of Fed in June. And the election of Brexit is scheduled in late June. The uncertainty of political situation as well as the depression keeps the price in unstable state.

JPY Long Bias is Available

USD/JPY daily chart, source: forexfactory.com

USD/JPY which has declined since last year tries to rebound. There was the adjustment against the downward in April, and it looks like repeating the pattern in this month, too. But the currency pair has dropped its peaks since last year, it means strong Japanese Yen. In last month it tried the rebound(strong US Dollar) but failed to raise its peaks, and continued its trend. Therefore it is reasonable to watch the market in the adjustment, and need to check whether it break the peak in April, I guess.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart, source: forexfactory.com

In 4-hour chart it is explicit of the upward trend of USD/JPY pair, it means strong US Dollar. On May 3 it made the bottom and turned its direction raising its bottoms. In my experience, there is the possibility that the upward trend in the short term meets end and enters the adjustment term.

We need to watch more carefully the opinions of economic headers than analyze the chart technically. 'Abenomics', economy policy of Japanese Cabinet is based on the weak Yen, strong Dollar. And Haruhiko Kuroda, president of Bank of Japan decided the minus benchmark index to stimulate the corporations' action. They support the weak Yen.

Yen, however, has kept long despite the economy teams' desire. The depression in world economy needed Yen evaluated as the safety asset like US Dollar. As watching the chart, Yen keeps the upward trend but there are the rebounding terms periodically. U.S. team doubts that the Tokyo team intervenes the FX market. From the statements from Tokyo, U.S. suspicion has justice in some measure. The G7 meeting held in Sendai, Japan on Friday and Saturday, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Jacob Lew warned the intervention of Japanese government to the foreign exchange market.