[EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Preparing Rebound II 2019 1126
cf. [EUR] Preparing Rebound 2019 1124
cf. [USDX] Still Rising Greenback 2019 1122

The euro is likely to move to either side within a few weeks.

This is because the euro is moving between a narrowing resistance and support line. The movement of the euro is decreasing, which can be interpreted as the accumulation of energy.

But it seems strongly euro to fall after touching 1.1018, 120 exponential moving average in one-hour chart.

But long-term trend is still downward, we need to watch the market with short bias.

If it exceeds the downtrend line made in weekly chart, it could rise over 1.1199 or upper band of Bollinger Bands, and it may reach to 1.1386, 120 exponential moving average.

Donald Trump, U.S. President signed the Hong Kong Human Right Act on Wednesday, and China has a big backlash. The small deal between economy top two is likely to be difficult.

Thus, the dollar will move with US Treasury yields, and the euro and euro-FX will move accordingly.

The currency pair EUR/USD is 1.1010 and futures, euro-FX 201912 is 1.10210 as of 04:09(UTC).


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[EUR] Preparing Rebound II 2019 1126

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Preparing Rebound 2019 1124
cf. [USDX] Still Rising Greenback 2019 1122
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro under the Downward Trend 2019 1115
cf. [USDX] Rising Dollar 2019 1109
cf. [USDX] Trying Rebound 2019 1104

Euro fell on Monday but it tries to rebound. It is still under the downward trend but it can rise in short or mid term.

First, if it exceeds the downtrend line made in weekly chart, it could rise over 1.1199 or upper band of Bollinger Bands, and it may reach to 1.1386, 120 exponential moving average.

There is another downtrend line, which falls to 1.2140. But I don't think euro rise above 1.21s in mid term. Because euro-zone economy doesn't show the optimistic outlook, yet.

As mentioned before, euro including currency pair EUR/USD and futures, euro-fx 201912 tries to form double-bottoms pattern, trend-turning-to-rise pattern.

There is a support line, too. Though euro falls, it is supported around 1.1097, I think.

Euro fell and dollar rose on Monday and dollar index was 98.308, 0.06 percent rise.

The expectation of U.S.-Sino small deal led greenback's rising.

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[EUR] Preparing Rebound 2019 1124

EUR/USD weekly chart, source: FXDD.com

cf. [USDX] Still Rising Greenback 2019 1122
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro under the Downward Trend 2019 1115
cf. [USDX] Rising Dollar 2019 1109
cf. [USDX] Trying Rebound 2019 1104


U.S. dollar is under the influence of U.S.-Sino trade talks. As it seems not to be succeeded in this year, safe-haven asset gets momentum and greenback rises against other currencies except Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc.

The uncertain view about small deal makes investors to hesitate to buy risky asset.

Euro zone economy still doesn't work well, and the growth of companies in euro zone are still at a standstill. It burdens euro and makes dollar to rise.

A Forex strategist at UBS said, the combination of U.S. economy and euro zone's led greenback's rising.

And analysts at Danske Banks, expect the euro to trade at low levels for an extended period considering the indication of the Federal Reserve that would be on hold for now and the resilience in EUR/USD to global news.

Danske Banks team think, the US economy remains on a stronger footing than the euro area economy, and in the euro area, the manufacturing sector is under pressure from weak global investment activity due to the trade war, Brexit and weak global growth.

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD was 1.1022 end of the last week according to FXStree.com and euro futures at CME, Euro-FX 201912 or 6EZ19 finished the week recording 1.10340.

USDX, dollar index, dollar's value against the basket of major six currencies rose 0.26 percent to 98.25.

In weekly chart, currency pair EUR/USD is still under the downward trend line. And it failed to break through middle band of Bollinger Bands.

But we can find that euro prepares the rebound carefully in weekly chart. The support line is made as well as the downward trend line, and it tries to build double-bottoms pattern, trend-changing pattern.

There are two main downward trend line made in the monthly chart and the weekly chart, respectively. And it is hard to guess trend-turning to upward trend but we may expect euro's rising in short term, one-hour and four-hour chart.


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