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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Expecting Euro Recovery 2020 0223
cf. [EUR] 기술적 반등, 유효한 매도적 관점 2020 0221
cf. [EUR] Downward Trend Euro 2020 0215
Though the growing fear of nCoViD-19 outbreak, euro rose against dollar on Tuesday. US dollar fell against Japanese yen and euro. Euro retreats in Asian session but it seems technical correction against rising yesterday.
One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD was supported on 120 exponential moving average in one-hour chart and 20 moving average in four-hour chart supported euro.
But nobody can say upward trend strongly. Euro doesn't break through 20 moving average in the daily chart, yet. We need to watch the chart more carefully. It is not recommended to have long bias to euro, yet. We need more signals, and the correction should be confirmed in four-hour chart at least.
If euro succeeds to keep rising, it will be tested of breaking-through 120 EMA, first. It is about 1.09s. After 120 EMA is broken as a resistance, we can expect exceeding the 1.0990s, previous support line.
And he expectation of Fed's cutting key rate pressed greenback. Futures market forecasts rate-cut 25bp at least in June. US benchmark interest rate band is 1.50~1.75 percent and higher than that in other major countries, such as Japan and EU.
Yonhap Infomax has reported that euro zone economy recovers slow pace actually. Analysts at Commerzbank said: "The euro may fall further on the dollar due to low volatility and sluggish Euro zone economic indicators, but as the dollar is overestimated, the decline will be limited," Yonhap Infomax reported, too.
As the number of respiratory patients increase, risk-off has been strengthened, and yen and Swiss franc rose. Dollar Index, greenback's price against currencies basket of major six countries faced 100 in three years, but it was in correction because market participants it rose too rapidly.
New York stock market was bearish, as Asian market was done. The fear of virus pandemic made S&P500 plunge for two days.
US economy media, CNBC reported, more 1 trillion dollars disappeared in S&P500 or 6.3 percent loss.
But the bearish US asset is temporary, some analysts think. Yonhap Infomax reported, if global growth is lowered, long greenback is still valid and the euro zone hardlanding risk and the coronavirus affecting make speculators' short betting on the short of euro.
Though Gjallarhorn says the careful prospect to Forex but it keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. The plunge in the euro makes big loss.
I acknowledge this report says downward trend of euro but I wish euro would surge.
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