Sunday, 31 May 2020

[EUR] EUR May Rise in Short and Mid-term 2020 0601

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com


cf. [EUR] Unstable Rebounding of Euro  2020 0523
cf. [EUR] Euro Retreats 2020 0522
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro II 2020 0513
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro 2020 0511
cf. [EUR] Retreating Euro 2020 0505

One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD rose breaking through 20 Moving Average in the weekly chart last week. And the euro broke 1.10 and 1.11 against the dollar in turn.

The strong rising over 20 MA can give the clue of deciding the upward trend. Euro kept rising against US dollar repeating the correction last week.

The price of euro exceeded 120 exponential moving average and the downward trend line in the daily chart and the four-hour chart, and it supports traders and investors to get the long bias on euro.

But the currency pair doesn't face 120 exponential moving average and upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart, yet. We need to watch the market more carefully before taking the seat of the upward trend of euro in the long term.

Meanwhile Fed Chair Jerome Powell showed his negative economy growth and denied the possible negative benchmark interest rate last month. His prospect may support dollar, but greenback fell in May.

The Sino-American Tension from the national security law on Hong Kong threatened the market. The U.S. President Donald Trump spoke that Hong Kong would lost its special treatment because Beijing decided to make the law of restrain the freedom of Hong Kong. But he didn't show the active measures and market participants got the risky assets.

But the market participants scare the tension between the top two economy entities. If the tension is intensified, they  will sell the risky assets and take the risk-off. Then greenback and Japanese Yen will rise.

The expectation of the global-economy recovery, the recovery package  of Euro Zone and the vaccine against Coronavirus has supported the risky assets such as euro.

There are regular big events in the week.

ECB releases its benchmark interest rate, Main Refinancing Rate and the press conference is planned on Thursday. One of the effective Forex events, Non-farm Payrolls is released as well as the Unemployment Claims of the United States in this late week.

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of futures, euro-FX. It is liquidated in September.
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Saturday, 23 May 2020

[EUR] Unstable Rebounding of Euro 2020 0523

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com


cf. [EUR] Euro Retreats 2020 0522
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro II 2020 0513
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro 2020 0511
cf. [EUR] Retreating Euro 2020 0505

The one of the major currency pair, EUR/USD failed its two goals. The currency pair didn't exceed 20 Moving Average in the weekly chart and failed to break through 1.10 level.

It exceeded 1.10 temporarily but it slid again below 1.09. EUR/USD touched the bottom band and slid along the band in the four-hour chart. Euro rebounded above 1.0877 which was the peak in mid May, but it is not uncertain to rally again in the next week.

We are able to confirm that euro is supported on the support line against dollar in the weekly chart. And we gain the long bias of euro.

Euro could fall again next week below the previous peaks but it would rebound again.

In the technical analysis, it is recommended to buy euro. There aren't an explicit patterns and signals, and it is better just to watch the market till the entry signal is shown keeping long bias.

Fed has cut its benchmark interest rate near to zero. But the market expects Fed may cut the Federal Funds Rate to negative rate. though Jerome Powell spoke he didn't guess the negative interest rate.

Its possibility is low, yet. Futures of Federal Funds Rate has some 20 percent of the negative rate. But Bank of England supports its negative rate, Fed cannot help considering BoE's plan.

Meanwhile the diplomatic conflict as well as economy conflict between top two economy entities support the strong dollar. The United States and China clashed with the trade, and it burdened the global financial market in the last year. While the Covid-19 pandemic, top two clash again. As China plans to make the national security law to Hong Kong, the US blames China and warns the retaliation. China does against the United States, too.

It raised greenback on Friday.

A forex expert said, the current foreign exchange market moved under the risk-off scenario and dollar rose, economy news agency Yonhap Infomax reported.

Another expert told, US-Sino conflict made safe-haven asset, dollar rose and restrained euro from reaching 1.10, Yonhap Infomax reported, too.

The long bias on euro is not supported by the economy circumstance.

Gjallarhorn got the long position of futures, euro-fx. It is liquidated in September.
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