Friday, 26 February 2021
[EUR] EURO in the Correction 2021 0226
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Rebounding EURO 2021 0225
Gjallarhorn liquidated the long postion of euro as the price dropped to the stop order.
The currency pair EUR/USD fell sharply after touching 1.22424. It dropped below the 120 exponential moving average on the four-hour chart and the diving momentum seems to be powerful. The Fibonacci which is formed from last November shows the euro has retreated just 23.6 percent, it still support the bullish trend to euro.
But it is anticipated euro may fall to the bottom band of Bollinger Band on the daily chart and to 1.1970 on which the 120 EMA lies on the daily chart.
Though the correction, the long bias to euro is still valid. It may be a good time to buy euro when this correction is completed.
Unlike the fallen euro, the U.S. dollar surged due to the rising U.S. Treasury yields. Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke the dovish statement while the testifying, the 10-y yields reached 1.50 percent though. It reflects the concern about the inflation.
Jerome Powell, Fed Chair testified the dovish stance while his testifying the continuous easing policy in the Senate and the House of Representatives respectively. He said, the low interest rate and the massive purchase of the asset would be kept till the economy recovers more.
He predicted three years at least in which the inflation reached Fed's goal.
The reflation betting on the Forex market lowered the dollar boosting the euro. The euro could reach above 1.2240.
As the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield surged above 1.50 percent at once and the concern about the inflation possibility rose, the dollar rallied.
Meanwhile the preliminary GDP released on Thursday was 4.1 percent growth, worse than the market expectation 4.2 percent, and the U.S. unemployment claims recorded 730 thousands. The markets expect 828 thousands and it was 861 thousands in the previous week.
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Wednesday, 24 February 2021
[EUR] Rebounding EURO 2021 0225
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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro 2021 0223
cf. [EUR] Retreated Euro 2021 0218
cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2021 0217
cf. [EUR] Fluctuating EURO 2021 0213
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2021 0209
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market, CME.
The currency pair EUR/USD moved in the sidling Bollinger Bands. While the pair's sidling-along, it was supported above 120 exponential moving average and 20 moving average on the four-hour chart after EUR/USD succeeded to rebound on 1.2090 breaking through the downward trend line.
The pair is above the main bearish trend line, it hasn't yet exceeded 1.2175 though. If it succeeds the previous peak in the four-hour chart, the traders can expect its hit 1.22 and the yearly peak 1.2349.
The upward channel is watched in the one-hour chart and Gjallarhorn holds the long bias of euro.
There was the German 10-y bond auction, Wednesday. It was sold at the yield -0.32 percent, which was expected -0.54 percent. The U.S. Treasury yields rose above 1.40 percent for a while, and the rising U.S. yields lowered the dollar.
Jerome Powell, Fed Chair testified the dovish stance while his testifying the continuous easing policy in the Senate and the House of Representatives respectively. He said, the low interest rate and the massive purchase of the asset would be kept till the economy recovers more.
He predicted three years at least in which the inflation reached Fed's goal.
The markets expect the U.S. fiscal stimulus package will be passed in the week, after Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House said the package would be passed in the House.
And the market anticipate the reflation and the risk-on currencies have risen against the dollar. The Aussie hit the three-year high.
The positive news of the vaccination supported the reflation-betting. The U.S. FDA spoke, it supported the emergency use of the another vaccine by Johnson & Jonhns. It may be the third vaccine admitted in the U.S.
Alan Ruskin, an international strategist at Deutsche Bank said, the market focus was far ahead of what Powell said. Powell focused on the current state of the US economy and employment, but the foreign exchange market was more focused on inflation and reflation, he added.
But a strategist, Ulrich Leutmann at Commerzbank said, the difference of the economy growth between EU and the U.S. and it is negative to euro. He added the trend of EUR/USD in the mid term is determined by whether the U.S economy enters the Goldilocks after the strong lockdown and the euro may be bearish.
The preliminary GDP is released on Thursday, and the markets expects 4.2 percent growth. And the authority concerned release the U.S. unemployment claims on Thursday. The markets expect 828 thousands and it was 861 thousands in the previous week.
------------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD