[USDX] Has Risen Too Much? 2019 0605

Dollar Index, four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

cf. [USDX] Downward Trend? 2019 0512
cf. [USDX] Non-Farm and Hourly Earnings 2019 0504

In these days, watching economy news, especially trade tension between G2, the United States and China is more important than analyzing the chart, which I have told in the previous report.

It is still available. The charts of currency pairs, futures and dollar index move up and down by economy news from U.S.-China trade war, Donald Trumps tweet, the guess of chair of Federal Reserve and so on. Some populism administrations in Euro zone.

Fed is under press of interest rate down. Fed chair, Jerome Powell spoke U.S. inflation is under the control and the benchmark rate has no reason of rising but the market expects the rate down. The news media reports that the market anticipates benchmark rate down two times in the year.

World Bank lowered its global economy growth 2.9 percent to 2.6 percent with weak world trade and investment on Tuesday.

The negative reports and news support strong greenback.

But dollar has rallied whatever economy situation moves since this year and this makes investors who have bought dollar to think greenback has risen too much.

Dollar Index hit some 98 and didn't break through 99 but it sank to 97s.

And in the short term, the chart may rebound. Double-tops pattern pulled the price down but enough-down price prepares the rebound. But the rise of price will be restricted.

Technical analysis tells weak dollar, it is uncertain yet. Traders just feel it rose too much. Dollar Index is 97.14 now.

The economy indicators high impact expected, Non-Farm employment change and unemployment rate in the United States are released on Friday. Market expects non-farm change records 180 thousands increasing and unemployment rate hits 3.6 percent, unchanged against last month.

We need to watch the news on Friday and plan the deal in the month.






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