[EUR] ECB and Fed 2019 0910

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

One of the currency pairs, EUR/USD rose 0.22 percent yesterday. It is reported that Germany, Number one economy entity in Europe planned the Shadow budget to invest in infrastructure and preventing climate change, and it raised euro, relatively risk asset. And the German exports in July increased 0.7 percent MoM, which was expected negative growth.

The positive signal between top 2 economy countries the United States and China under the trade war helped euro, too. The trade negotiation is planned to resume in next month and Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Treasury Secretary denied recession being visible in the United States and anticipated the U.S. economy growth in the year while the interview with Fox Business on Monday.

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair hinted the additional benchmark interest rate cut on next Wednesday. The market expects 25bp or 0.25 percent interest cut in FOMC meeting.

But these news didn't raise euro sufficiently, ECB is believed to cut benchmark-interest cut and continue Quantitative Easing.

Bloomberg reported economists survey that European Central Bank led by Mario Draghi may cut Main Refinancing Rate to -0.1 percent on Thursday. It is zero percent, now. And they expect ECB resume Asset Buying again to boost Europe economy.

GDP in euro zone, 2nd quarter recorded 0.2 percent growth, it was 0.4 percent in first quarter.

Governor of the Bank of Finland already claimed more strong package including QE and interest cut last month.

The pair is 1.1044 in Asian session, now. Euro FX September(6EU19) records 1.10495 in Asian session, too. It is expired in the week. 6EZ19(December) price is 1.11245. It moves in narrow channel.

The daily chart and the four-hour chart keep downward trend. When euro rose due to good economy news, it failed to break through 120 EMA and change the trend in four-hour chart. It tests to break through 120 EMA and resistance line again but it is not sure to succeed yet.

It seem to move up and down in the Bollinger Band till ECB spoke benchmark rate on Thursday. And we need to watch FOMC meeting next week, too.








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