cf. [EUR] After FOMC 2019 0919
cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias? 2019 0916
cf. [EUR] ECB and Fed 2019 0910
Federal Reserve cut Federal Funds Rate 25bp, or 0.25 percent to interest rate range 1.75~2.00 percent on last Wednesday. It was coincided with market expectation. But market thought of Fed's view on the market as hawkish view. Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't hint more rate cut and market participants anticipate the rate freeze till next year.
The hawkish rate-cut supports strong greenback. One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD fell though interest rate of U.S. dollar was cut, and there is still downward trend in the chart.
Currency pair, EUR/USD rebounded in Asian session, Monday after it plunged last week. But before get long position of the pair, we need to watch German Ifo Business Climate released on Tuesday. Market expectation is 94.5 and it was 94.3 before. The worse release of Ifo Biz Climate than expectation may lower euro.
But German economy is under pessimistic view, because Trump's America first policy hinders China economy and German's.
The possible recession in Germany will hinder euro, and lead dollar long, euro short.
Though euro will succeed to rebound, traders need to watch the chart more carefully. We need to watch whether the price of pair breaks through 20 Moving Average or middle band of Bollinger Bands. If you watch more carefully, upper band of Bollinger Bands is needed. Because though the pattern, for example double-bottoms pattern, is made, it may fail to build the upward trend.
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