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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] ECB and Fed 2019 0910
European Central Bank froze Main Refinancing Rate to 0.0 percent last Thursday. The market expected the rate might be cut to negative 0.1 percent but only the deposit rate was cut to -0.5 percent.
And ECB lowered GDP in euro zone, this year and planned to begin Quantitative Easing program again from November.
As ECB froze the benchmark interest rate, currency pair EUR/USD dived to 1.0926 the lowest level in two years but it succeeded to rebound making 'V pattern'. The news of Top two economies' resuming trade talk supported risky asset.
It is reported that Germany, Number one economy entity in Europe planned the Shadow budget to invest in infrastructure and preventing climate change, and it raised euro, relatively risk asset.
It rose to 1.1106 and retreats below 1.1100 in Asian session, Monday.
FOMC meeting is hold this week. Market participants anticipate Fed will cut Federal Funds Rate, 25bp to 2.0~1.75 percent band.
The positive expectation of small deal in the trade tension and anticipated benchmark interest cut may lower dollar and support euro. But pessimistic outlook on euro economy and the attack to petroleum refinement facilities in Saudi Arabia may restrain euro.
The downward trend line since third quarter in 2018 is still available and resists against euro's rising. And the expected Fed's interest cut doesn't boost euro sufficiently.
And it seems that euro hovers in Bollinger Bands.
Gjallarhorn has Short position of micro Euro-FX or M6EZ19. When the position was gotten, I thought ECB's decision would lead euro down. The position records loss now, but the short position will be hold for a while.
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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, EUR, euro, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 유로화
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