Monday, 9 December 2019

[EUR] Awating Two Big Events 2019 1210

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com


cf. [EUR] EURO Trying to Reach Upper Band, 1.1161 2019 1205
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro in Short Term 2019 1202
cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD is 1.10670 and futures item, Eurof FX-201912 or 6EZ19 is 1.10720 as of 02:17(UTC).

Euro moves in the triangle pattern and its volatility becomes small. Because greenback is under the mixed state as scheduled day of more U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods comes.

As the risk of the fail of U.S.-Sino trade talks has risen, dollar retreated. The deadline of the small deal is Sunday, December 15.

But expectation of the deal is uncertain, and it presses currencies' volatility.

And another big event is planned this week, FOMC, Federal Open Market Committee is hold. FOMC decide U.S. benchmark interest rate and the market expect it would be frozen, 1.75 percent.

It is known the dollar long position is increased. Though the trade war between economy top two, the U.S. economy is still better than another economy entities such as euro zone, and emerging markets.

We need to keep in mind ECB's currency policy of Quantitative Easing in next year. And we should listen to some analysts' careful expectation of weak greenback in next year, too. There are U.S. President election, the possibility of top two economy entities' deal and rebound of euro zone economy.

Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position now. The position would be gotten in next year.

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