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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Recovering Euro 2020 0327
cf. [EUR] Just Watching the Market 2020 0323
cf. [EUR] Euro in Complicated Crisis 2020 0316
The currency pair EUR/USD is under the correction after the breakthrough 1.1145 on last Friday.
This correction is reasonable, because euro rose without the correction for almost week. Euro succeeded to form the double-bottoms pattern which is a price-increase pattern in the four-hour chart in last week.
The currency pair may fall to 1.10 or more, and it seems that euro will find the new trend in the four-hour chart. If we think Fibonacci, euro could retreat to 1.0961, which is 38.2 percent correction.
The pair retreats to 20 Simple Moving Average in the daily chart. I think euro will rebound to the adjusted downward trend line over 1.1250.
Though euro may get the downward trend line in short-or-mid term against dollar, it is still valid to keep long bias on euro in the yearly term.
Dollar has risen sufficiently since US-Sino Trade War and coronavirus outbreak. As the US real economy is affected by the pandemic, greenback gradually falls.
When we recall Global Financial Crisis in 2008, greenback surged whatever Fed chair and other governors of the central banks around the world did.
It was the financial crisis in the finance system, and this crisis is from real economy. We need to watch the market and think whether the difference of the crisis origin is determine dollar's trend.
Gjallarhorn liquidated the long position of euro-fx at CME. It will watch the market for some days and decide the bias after checking Non-Farm Payrolls released on this Friday.
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