[JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0430

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Steady Yen during Easter Holidays 2020 0411
cf. [JPY] Dollar's Rally against Yen 2020 0326
cf. [JPY] Falling Safe-Haven Asset Yen 2020 0320
cf. [JPY] Fear Easing and Yen Falling 2020 0205

The currency pair, USD/JPY which has moved in the channel, slips in the week. Japanese yen plunge in last month, but it retreats in the month.

Japanese yen has been resisted at price 105.3s against US dollar. And the price is tested as a resistance line, again. The currency pair keeps downward trend in one-hour chart, Thursday, it means strong yen and weak dollar.

The advance 1st quarter GDP was released -4.8 percent on Wednesday due to the pandemic. It shows the record-long US economic growth has been over. And Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC froze its benchmark interest rate band zero~0.25 percent, this day.

It led greenback fell. Though dollar falls and yen rises, it is anticipated yen to face the resistance line around 105.3x.

US unemployment claims is released on Thursday. It is forecasted 3.5 millions, which was 4.4 millions last week. It has hit more 6 millions, historical high.

As the fear of the pandemic covid-19 eases gradually, the market participants expect economy resumption.

The positive signals to financial market makes investors buy risky asset such as euro. And risk-off yen may fall against less risk-off dollar.

Gjallarhorn has a long position of futures, euro fx 2020-06 and it is under the loss.

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[EUR] EUR Rising in Short Term 2020 0427

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Euro Preparing Rising 2020 0423
cf. [EUR] Hoping Rebounding of Euro 2020 0420

The currency pair EUR/USD gained forming a mild V pattern in the four-hour chart, and it succeeded to break though 20 moving average.

The V pattern is less reliable than the double-bottoms pattern and the reverse Head-and-Shoulders pattern. And its rising could fail to retreating again.

The pair moves toward upper band and 120 exponential moving average, but it faces the correction before the meaningful resistance lines.

Though it succeeds to rise, it is still under the downward trend line. It still fluctuates under the limited range. The downward trend line since 2008 and the other trend line since 2018 are the burden to euro.

To break through the resistance lines, the currency pair EUR/USD should exceed 1.12 and 1.20 in order. It isn't a soft job.

Therefore, the rising of the currency pair is forecasted in the short term.

As well as Forex market, we need to watch energy market and the pandemic news, too.

Futures of WTI crude oil which had plunged below zero recording historical low, rose over 10 dollar, but it is terribly low. The price of WTI crude oil is 13.45 dollar at 12:23(UTC). Brent oil price is 23.61.

The extremely price-low crude oil means the hardlanding.

Gjallarhorn has a long position of euro-fx in CME and it records loss, now.

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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른]FX마진이란 무엇인가 #10- 일본 엔화, 영국 파운드화, 통화별 외환시장 비중

[EUR] Euro Preparing Rising 2020 0423

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Hoping Rebounding of Euro 2020 0420

The currency pair EUR/USD moves steadily lowering its peaks and declining the slope of the support line. But it has been supported above 1.08, and it fluctuates in the channel from 1.0800 to 1.0890.

The pair doesn't show an explicit trend, and it seems to accumulate energy for jumping to any direction.

However, it is a burden that the peaks lower and the slope of the price support is slowing down. Euro failed to touch 1.10 and retreated for a week.

In the four-hour chart of the pair, it is confirmed that euro is supported on the price band of 1.08.

The downward 20 Moving Average and 120 Exponential Moving Average in all charts of the currency pair EUR/USD imply the bearish market, but we can guess its rebound above 1.08s.

As well as Forex market, we need to watch energy market and the pandemic news, too.

Futures of WTI crude oil 2020-05 plunged below zero recording historical low, and the roller-coaster price of its 2020-06 stays under 15 dollar, now.

The diving oil price makes greenback rise. It is the burden to euro.

The currency pair fell and dollar index, greenback's value against the basket of major six currencies reached over 100 to 100.375 on Wednesday.

As crude oil price rebounded, risk-off deal weakened and dollar retreated.

The unemployment claims is released Today. The indicator has high impact on Forex market recently and it is anticipated to be 4.3 millions.

Therefore we need to watch the Unemployment Claims released on Thursday. And the very effective index on euro, German Ifo Business Climate is released on Friday, it is expected to be 79.7, previous 86.1.

Gjallarhorn has a long position of euro-fx in CME and it records loss, now.

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[EUR] Hoping Rebounding of Euro 2020 0420

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2020 0416
cf. [EUR] Hope to Keep Upward  2020 0413
cf. [EUR] After the Correction 2020 0409

The currency pair EUR/USD rose last Friday and it moves steadily when this week begins.

While the pair moves up and down, its peaks lower gradually and the slope of the support line is getting slower. Euro failed in exceeding 20 Moving Average at one go. They make investors guess euro may fall.

And it failed in reach to 1.10. After the fail, euro retreated to 1.081 against dollar.

Unlike technical analysis, the euro has a rebound opportunity against greenback, to control the epidemic.

Dollar declined last Friday due to higher risk preference in anticipation of the possible treatment of COVID-19.

The market participants as well as ordinary global citizens hope COVID-19 medicine to be developed. And the positive news of the medicine under the development raises the risky-preference asset price such as euro, pound and equities.

And Gjallarhorn expects the currency pair, EUR/USD rises in this week.

Meanwhile the oil price plunges to 10s dollar, and it is anticipated falling under ten dollar. US economy media CNBC reported, it is historical low in twenty-one years.

Though members of OPEC+ have agreed to reduce crude oil produce to 9.7 million barrels a day in May and June in the video meeting, they failed in supporting crude oil price.

The falling oil price support greenback. And it is negative to euro.

Euro has both rising and falling factors.

There is also a trend in economic releases where currency pairs are highly responsive. US dollar and euro roller-coaster when the United States Unemployment Claims is released in April.

The unemployment claims was relatively insignificant compared to other economy events, but when it has hit the historical high marking more six millions, it became the powerful economy event on the foreign exchange market.

Therefore we need to watch the Unemployment Claims released on Thursday. And the very effective index on euro, German Ifo Business Climate is released on Friday.

Gjallarhorn has a long position of euro-fx in CME.
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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른]FX마진이란 무엇인가 #9 - 유로화 성질

[EUR] Rebounding Euro 2020 0416

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Hope to Keep Upward  2020 0413
cf. [EUR] After the Correction 2020 0409

Rising euro retreats against US dollar for two days. The currency pair, EUR/USD which has succeeded to break through 20 Moving Average retraced its gain in the daily chart and it falls under the support line in hours charts.

After the falling, euro moves steadily against greenback on Thursday morning(GMT). It still has the possibility of falling in short term. Though euro falls along the bottom band of Bollinger Bands, it is on bottom band and is expected to be supported above the band in four-hour chart.

The currency pair gives the market participants the expectation of its moving-up to the broken support line at least.

The currency pair moves in the triangle made of downward trend line and upward trend line and in Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart.

If the pair succeed to rebound to the support line, the market can expects it will rise to 1.10.

The disappointing US unemployment claims on last Thursday bolstered euro's rising. It was 6.6 millions and 6.8 millions in previous week. But when US Retail Sales Month on Month showed the disappointing record, dollar rose. The index fell 8.7 percent on Wednesday. The consensus was minus 8 percent. As it has been released, the currency pair plunged contrary to unemployment claims.

The US economy is largely supported by domestic consumption. The decreased consumption worse than expected showed the recession in the United States is more serious. The pandemic damages the global economy seriously, the market participants thought and the investors bought safe-haven dollar on Wednesday.

The US stock market moved down 1~2 percent, too.

The US unemployment claims is released every Thursday, and it is expected to hit 5 millions on this Thursday. It recorded more six millions, historical high in the continuous two weeks.

Gjallarhorn has a long position of euro-fx in CME.
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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른][EUR] 반등을 모색하는 유로 2020 0414

[EUR] Hope to Keep Upward 2020 0413

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] After the Correction 2020 0409
cf. [EUR] Short Bias on EURO 2020 0406
cf. [EUR] Bearish Euro 2020 0403

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD is expected to rise after moving steadily during Easter holidays.

The disappointing US unemployment claims on last Thursday bolstered euro's rising. It was 6.6 millions and 6.8 millions in previous week.

The currency pair moves in the triangle made of downward trend line and upward trend line and in Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. The price of euro rebounded at the support line and rises toward 20 Moving Average. It is forecasted to touch 20 MA in the weekly chart.

And we need to whether it reaches 1.10. Euro exceeded 1.10 against US dollar late March but it sank under the price forming Head-and-Shoulders pattern. As it succeeded to rise, it gives the expectation of breaking-through 1.10 again.

Though euro breaks through 1.10, it is still under the downward trend line and resistance line. There is room before the resistance line is tested.

As Europe session begins, it sidles above 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart. Euro moves in Bollinger Bands and tries to fall toward 120 exponential moving average and upward trend line in one-hour chart.

As well as watching the charts, the investors and the traders should be interested in the non-economic news, especially the pandemic coronavirus.

Though the chart gives long sign, euro may sink when the pandemic is not controlled yet. The United States recorded high of the number of respiratory-virus infectees. England became the fifth country which has gotten 10 thousands death roll. These news make investors hesitate to buy euro.

The US unemployment claims is released every Thursday, and it is expected to hit 5 millions on this Thursday. It recorded more six millions, historical high in the continuous two weeks.

Gjallarhorn has a long position of euro-fx in CME.

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FX마진이란 무엇인가 #8

[JPY] Steady Yen during Easter Holidays 2020 0411

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Dollar's Rally against Yen 2020 0326
cf. [JPY] Falling Safe-Haven Asset Yen 2020 0320
cf. [JPY] Fear Easing and Yen Falling 2020 0205

The currency pair USD/JPY which has plunged succeeded to rebound forming V pattern and was in the correction in the daily chart.

It seems that the currency pair returns to the ordinary channel, and it implies the pair rises in the short-and-mid term and dollar rises.

US dollar rose against Japanese Yen forming double-bottoms pattern in late March, but it didn't rise sufficiently and sidles in the four-hour chart.

The rising currency pair means greenback rises against safety-haven yen.

US unemployment claims hit 6.6 millions on Thursday. It was expected 5 millions and 6.8 millions in previous week. It was bad news to dollar and yen gained.

The health care problem of COVID-19 affects finance market as well as real economy.

First, the pandemic coronavirus should be controlled. Then the market will return to the normal state. As well as watching the chart and news, we have to be interested in the news about the pandemic.

After the announcement of the Olympic games in Tokyo's postponement to next year, the number of CoViD-19 surges. Japanese worry the epidemic very much and it hurts Japanese economy.

The postponement of Olympic games itself has given the large loss to Tokyo.

It burdens Japanese economy and currency yen.

Easter holidays began from Friday. Almost banks in Europe and America are closed during the holidays, and the price movement is expected to be steady.

Gjallarhorn has a long position of futures, euro fx 2020-06.

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[EUR] After the Correction 2020 0409

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Short Bias on EURO 2020 0406
cf. [EUR] Bearish Euro 2020 0403

Currency pair, EUR/USD has formed Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the four-hour chart again, and moves steadily after the correction.

The price rose after double-bottoms pattern and succeeded to break through 20 Moving Average in four-hour chart. As the expectation of controlling COVID-19 epidemic is weaken due to rising infectees and death roll, euro fell against US dollar and greenback rose on Wednesday.

Euro's falling was affected by the fail of agreement of EU financial ministers for supporting countries under COVID-19 damage, too.

US unemployment claims hit 6.6 millions on Thursday. It was expected 5 millions and 6.8 millions in previous week. It led euro rise.

Easter holidays begins from Friday. Almost banks in Europe and America are closed during the holidays, and the price movement is expected to be steady.

Gjallarhorn has a long position of euro-fx in CME.

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[Gjallarhorn][EUR] Short Bias on EURO 2020 0406

[EUR] Short Bias on EURO 2020 0406

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Bearish Euro 2020 0403

Euro returned almost its gain in dollar last week. The price of euro formed the typical downturn pattern, Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the four-hour chart of EUR/USD, last week, again. The previous pattern lowered euro to 1.0659 against greenback. We watch the chart carefully whether it falls below previous bottom.

It is reasonable to think euro keeps falling in the week. Though it may rebound, euro is restrained at 1.0852 around upper band of Bollinger Bands in one-hour chart or som 1.09, 20 Moving Average in the four-hour chart.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls released on last Friday decreased 701 thousands than previous month. It increased 275 thousands in February and market expected minus 100 thousands this time.

Worse than predicted payrolls disappointed the investors and the currency pair EUR/USD fell last week.

And the unemployment claims which was released on last Thursday hit more 6.6 millions and recorded historical high. It was 3.3 millions last week. This means almost 10 millions workers has lost their jobs for two weeks.

The health care problem of COVID-19 affects finance market as well as real economy.

First, the pandemic coronavirus should be controlled. Then the market will return to the normal state. As well as watching the chart and news, we have to be interested in the news about the pandemic.

Fed has begun its QE program. It lowers the cost of borrowing dollar in funding market. The spread of three-months FX swap has diminished shortly. And it cut benchmark interest rate to near zero percent. These would raise the price of currency pair EUR/USD.


Gjallarhorn find the appropriate entry point for LONG position of euro. It may take time.
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[EUR] Bearish Euro 2020 0403

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2020 0330
cf. [EUR] Recovering Euro 2020 0327
cf. [EUR] Just Watching the Market 2020 0323
cf. [EUR] Euro in Complicated Crisis 2020 0316

The currency pair EUR/USD makes the price-down Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the four-hour chart, again. The peak of the pattern is 1.1141 and lower than previous peak.

It is expected that euro may fall to 1.0804 first and it could sink to the adjusted support line, 1.0663.

Unemployment Claims which was released on Thursday hit more 6.6 millions and recorded historical high. It was 3.3 millions last week. This means almost 10 millions workers has lost their jobs for two weeks.

Dollar Index, dollar's value against the basket of major six currencies, rose 0.7 percent to 100.181. It exceeded 100 again in two weeks.

Worse economy score boosted dollar against euro.

The problem on currency market is the pandemic of corona virus, COVID-19. Over China and South Korea, it spreads to Europe and America. The infectees around the world increased over  one million and more 240 thousands in the United States on early Friday.

Though the effort of governors and presidents of central banks, finance market is still in turmoil. Fed's QE program is not effective to greenback's stay, yet.

Rising fear of the pandemic makes safety-asset, dollar surge. And historical record of unemployment claims in recent two weeks boosted it.

We need to watch the market carefully and confirm the Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday. Market forecasts the decrease of 100 thousands slots.

Recalling the memory in 2008, Global Financial Crisis, greenback rose and euro plunged against dollar.

But due to Fed's QE program, the cost of borrowing dollar decreased in funding market. The spread of three-months FX swap has diminished shortly.

It gives the hope of euro's rebounding after unemployment claims and non-farm payrolls.

After Non-Farm Payrolls release, we should euro's direction. Diving or rebounding.

Gjallarhorn liquidated the long position of euro-fx at CME and has a plan to deal euro after checking Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday.
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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른]FX마진이란 무엇인가 #7