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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2020 0416
cf. [EUR] Hope to Keep Upward 2020 0413
cf. [EUR] After the Correction 2020 0409
The currency pair EUR/USD rose last Friday and it moves steadily when this week begins.
While the pair moves up and down, its peaks lower gradually and the slope of the support line is getting slower. Euro failed in exceeding 20 Moving Average at one go. They make investors guess euro may fall.
And it failed in reach to 1.10. After the fail, euro retreated to 1.081 against dollar.
Unlike technical analysis, the euro has a rebound opportunity against greenback, to control the epidemic.
Dollar declined last Friday due to higher risk preference in anticipation of the possible treatment of COVID-19.
The market participants as well as ordinary global citizens hope COVID-19 medicine to be developed. And the positive news of the medicine under the development raises the risky-preference asset price such as euro, pound and equities.
And Gjallarhorn expects the currency pair, EUR/USD rises in this week.
Meanwhile the oil price plunges to 10s dollar, and it is anticipated falling under ten dollar. US economy media CNBC reported, it is historical low in twenty-one years.
Though members of OPEC+ have agreed to reduce crude oil produce to 9.7 million barrels a day in May and June in the video meeting, they failed in supporting crude oil price.
The falling oil price support greenback. And it is negative to euro.
Euro has both rising and falling factors.
There is also a trend in economic releases where currency pairs are highly responsive. US dollar and euro roller-coaster when the United States Unemployment Claims is released in April.
The unemployment claims was relatively insignificant compared to other economy events, but when it has hit the historical high marking more six millions, it became the powerful economy event on the foreign exchange market.
Therefore we need to watch the Unemployment Claims released on Thursday. And the very effective index on euro, German Ifo Business Climate is released on Friday.
Gjallarhorn has a long position of euro-fx in CME.
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