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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2020 0330
cf. [EUR] Recovering Euro 2020 0327
cf. [EUR] Just Watching the Market 2020 0323
cf. [EUR] Euro in Complicated Crisis 2020 0316
The currency pair EUR/USD makes the price-down Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the four-hour chart, again. The peak of the pattern is 1.1141 and lower than previous peak.
It is expected that euro may fall to 1.0804 first and it could sink to the adjusted support line, 1.0663.
Unemployment Claims which was released on Thursday hit more 6.6 millions and recorded historical high. It was 3.3 millions last week. This means almost 10 millions workers has lost their jobs for two weeks.
Dollar Index, dollar's value against the basket of major six currencies, rose 0.7 percent to 100.181. It exceeded 100 again in two weeks.
Worse economy score boosted dollar against euro.
The problem on currency market is the pandemic of corona virus, COVID-19. Over China and South Korea, it spreads to Europe and America. The infectees around the world increased over one million and more 240 thousands in the United States on early Friday.
Though the effort of governors and presidents of central banks, finance market is still in turmoil. Fed's QE program is not effective to greenback's stay, yet.
Rising fear of the pandemic makes safety-asset, dollar surge. And historical record of unemployment claims in recent two weeks boosted it.
We need to watch the market carefully and confirm the Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday. Market forecasts the decrease of 100 thousands slots.
Recalling the memory in 2008, Global Financial Crisis, greenback rose and euro plunged against dollar.
But due to Fed's QE program, the cost of borrowing dollar decreased in funding market. The spread of three-months FX swap has diminished shortly.
It gives the hope of euro's rebounding after unemployment claims and non-farm payrolls.
After Non-Farm Payrolls release, we should euro's direction. Diving or rebounding.
Gjallarhorn liquidated the long position of euro-fx at CME and has a plan to deal euro after checking Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday.
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