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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Unstable Rebounding of Euro 2020 0523
cf. [EUR] Euro Retreats 2020 0522
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro II 2020 0513
cf. [EUR] Long Bias to Euro 2020 0511
cf. [EUR] Retreating Euro 2020 0505
One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD rose breaking through 20 Moving Average in the weekly chart last week. And the euro broke 1.10 and 1.11 against the dollar in turn.
The strong rising over 20 MA can give the clue of deciding the upward trend. Euro kept rising against US dollar repeating the correction last week.
The price of euro exceeded 120 exponential moving average and the downward trend line in the daily chart and the four-hour chart, and it supports traders and investors to get the long bias on euro.
But the currency pair doesn't face 120 exponential moving average and upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart, yet. We need to watch the market more carefully before taking the seat of the upward trend of euro in the long term.
Meanwhile Fed Chair Jerome Powell showed his negative economy growth and denied the possible negative benchmark interest rate last month. His prospect may support dollar, but greenback fell in May.
The Sino-American Tension from the national security law on Hong Kong threatened the market. The U.S. President Donald Trump spoke that Hong Kong would lost its special treatment because Beijing decided to make the law of restrain the freedom of Hong Kong. But he didn't show the active measures and market participants got the risky assets.
But the market participants scare the tension between the top two economy entities. If the tension is intensified, they will sell the risky assets and take the risk-off. Then greenback and Japanese Yen will rise.
The expectation of the global-economy recovery, the recovery package of Euro Zone and the vaccine against Coronavirus has supported the risky assets such as euro.
There are regular big events in the week.
ECB releases its benchmark interest rate, Main Refinancing Rate and the press conference is planned on Thursday. One of the effective Forex events, Non-farm Payrolls is released as well as the Unemployment Claims of the United States in this late week.
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of futures, euro-FX. It is liquidated in September.
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