Monday, 28 September 2020
Friday, 25 September 2020
[EUR] Euro on the Corssroad 2020 0926
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Unstable Euro in the Pandemic 2020 0922
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro Ahead of FOMC 2020 0915
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
The currency pair EUR/USD dived in this week.
The pair which had attempted to break through the important price, 1.20 plunged to 1.1611. It recovered technically and finished this week with 1.1629 according to the chart of FXDD.com.
The price of the euro fell without any meaningful recovering, and it showed the strong downward trend.
The price of 1.20 is meaningful and the resistance against breaking-through is strong. The downward trend line which has been effective more ten years is on some 1.20 these days. The exceeding 1.20 means that the price breaks through the main downward trend line, and the greenback enters bearish period.
The first try failed, Gjallarhorn confesses to recording the loss.
The four-hour chart suggests that the euro may rebound technically in the next early week. We can expect the euro may rise against dollar to 1.1725 at first. It is the upper band of Bollinger Bands.
If the euro's bearish trend continues, the price, 1.149x may be support line.
The surging greenback in this week owes to the fear of the re-proliferation of coronavirus in Europe. The rising infection cases in Europe has made the fear of the blockade again, and the risk-on sentiment was exchanged to the risk-off.
The fear of second blockade in Europe, the short-covering of the greenback and the uncertainty of U.S. politics before the Presidential election boosted safe-haven U.S. dollar. The dollar index, greenback's price against six-currencies basket surged to 94.604.
The second rising-infection cases in Europe called the safe-haven greenback selling euro.
JP Morgan expected the forth-quarter economy growth of the United States 2.5 percent, it was lowered from 3.5 percent. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America lowered it to 3 percent, too.
The political uncertainty burdens the market, too. The campaign of Donald Trump and Joe Biden till the Presidential Election on November 3 supports the bullish dollar.
The risen dollar lowered the price of crude oil and another safe-haven gold.
The price of crude oil WTI futures dropped to 40.25 dollar. Gold futures' price in New York market retreated 0.7 percent or 12.60 dollar to 1864.30 dollar.
The euro plunged, Eurozone economy recovers gradually though. Economy index, German Ifo Business Climate in September hit 93.4. Though it is lower than market expectation 93.9, it rose from 92.5 in August and it has risen for months.
Ifo expects German economy will record six percent in the third quarter on the previous quarter. German authority revised the German economy growth in the year from minus 6.4 percent to minus 5.8 percent.
Meanwhile Christine Lagarde, president of European Central Bank has spoken that ECB watches the strong euro carefully and ECB has worries about the euro's rising. Because the strong euro burdens the economy recovery in Eurozone. And it may restrain the rising height of euro.
-------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Tuesday, 22 September 2020
[EUR] Unstable Euro in the Pandemic 2020 0922
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro Ahead of FOMC 2020 0915
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
As the week begins, the currency pair EUR/USD has plunged. The pair which rose mildly in Asian session turned its direction downward.
But euro retreated against dollar, it still fluctuates in flat Bollinger Bands in four-hour chart and daily chart. It is not valid to get the short bias of euro, yet.
One of the major currency pair EUR/USD has dropped to fresh 6-week lows around 1.1720 earlier on Tuesday. The falling currency pair retreated to 1.1719 in this morning(GMT).
It tries to rebound on the adjusted support line in the four-hour chart, and it takes time to confirm its trend, upward or downward. We need to watch whether the price rises to 1.1824 which is 20 Moving Average in the four-hour chart. If it succeeds to exceed 20 MA, it gives hint of rising euro.
Due to concerns about the re-proliferation of the novel coronavirus infection, risk-off sentiment made investors to buy safe-haven asset such as dollar in the week. And the euro fell against dollar.
The speech of Christine Lagarde, president of European Central Bank which ECB watches the strong euro carefully, also affected the currency pair and weak euro.
ECB has worried about the recent euro's rising. Because the strong euro burdens the economy recovery in Eurozone. And it may restrain the rising height of euro.
EUR/USD dropped and recorded fresh monthly lows near 1.1720 earlier in the session, resuming the post-FOMC downtrend. Despite the move, the pair’s outlook remains positive and bouts of weakness are so far deemed as short-lived and look contained.
Investors are expected to closely follow the first testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the Fed’s response to the pandemic. The dollar will, therefore, be under the microscope practically during the whole week.”
Meanwhile the experts in Wall Street think it may take long time for the US economy to recover. Analysts predict that the dollar will continue to weaken for at least three months.
And Vice-Fed Chair, Richard H. Clarida has spoken the natural rate of interest had gradually dropped since 2012 and began to reconsider the monetary-policy frame. And he hinted FOMC might use Yield Curve Control(YCC) if needed.
--------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Thursday, 17 September 2020
Wednesday, 16 September 2020
Tuesday, 15 September 2020
Monday, 14 September 2020
[EUR] Rising Euro Ahead of FOMC 2020 0915
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] First Support Level Price of Euro 1.1760 2020 0909
cf. [EUR] After Non-Farm Payrolls 2020 0905
cf. [EUR] EUR, Trying to Exceed 1.20 2020 0902
cf. [EUR] Before Powell's Speech 2020 0827
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It records the loss yet.
One of the major currency pair EUR/USD fluctuates not showing the explicit trend in the four-hour chart since August. There were several attempt to break through 1.20, but it was failed and the price has hovered.
Also we can find out that the price has raised its bottoms, and it support the long bias to euro and the weak greenback.
Ahead of FOMC Economic Projections on Wednesday, the pair seems to keep the moving up-and-down in the Bollinger Bands. After FOMC's release and press conference, the currency pair will set its new trend whether exceeding 1.20.
Before FOMC's press release and the release of its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, the greenback stepped down. Market participants expect Fed will freeze the Federal Funds Rate below 0.25 percent and keep the dovish stance. It makes the greenback down.
Fed Chair, Jerome Powell spoke Flexible Form of Average Inflation Targeting at Jackson Hole Symposium, it implies Fed will not raise the benchmark interest rate though the inflation hit over 2 percent. It is predicted that FOMC will provide additional forward guidance to show how the flexible form of average inflation targeting' works to support Powell's remarks.
But European Central Bank worries about the recent euro's rising. Because the strong euro burden the economy recovery in Eurozone. And it may restrain the rising height of euro.
Meanwhile the experts in Wall Street think it takes long time for the US economy to recover. Analysts predict that the dollar will continue to weaken for at least three months.
Netherlands's bank ING forecasted euro's rise to 1.20 in one month. After this correction euro keeps upward rise due to the fundamental momentum.
And Vice-Fed Chair, Richard H. Clarida has spoken the natural rate of interest had gradually dropped since 2012 and began to reconsider the monetary-policy frame. And he hinted FOMC might use Yield Curve Control(YCC) if needed.
---------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Thursday, 10 September 2020
[JPY] Stable Yen 2020 0910
 |
| USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0610
cf. [JPY] Risk-on, Falling Yen 2020 0603
cf. [JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0430
Gjallarhorn has the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME but doesn't have any position of Japanese Yen.
The weekly chart of currency pair USD/JPY shows the pair is on the downward trend. As it goes, USD/JPY has lowers its peaks. It supposes traders to have the short bias to the pair.
But we also need to know, there is sufficient margin from the current price in the four-hour chart and the one-hour chart.
In the short term, the price fluctuate and the fluctuation width diminishes step by step. The price seems to converge to 106.10x in four-hour chart. The convergence implies collecting the momentum and it could surge or plunge.
Meanwhile European Central Bank froze its benchmark interest rate to zero, and ECB spoke it would keep PEPP of 1.3 trillion euros while the press conference on Thursday. Risk-on asset prices have risen.
---------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #JPY, #yen, #USDJPY
Tuesday, 8 September 2020
[EUR] First Support Level Price of Euro 1.1760 2020 0909
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] After Non-Farm Payrolls 2020 0905
cf. [EUR] EUR, Trying to Exceed 1.20 2020 0902
cf. [EUR] Before Powell's Speech 2020 0827
cf. [EUR] Moderate Euro before Powell's Speech 2020 0826
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2020 0821
Gjallarhorn still holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It records the loss because euro has retreated for days.
One of the major currency pair, EUR/USD made the head-and-shoulders pattern which shows the downtrend conversion in the one-hour chart, and it continues the downward trend.
We need to watch whether the pair is supported at 1.1760x which was bottom in August at first. The price may retreat to 1.1710 if the price of 1.1760 as the support line is broken. If the 1.1710 is breached, the price is thought to be on the downward trend in mid-term. The long bias to euro will gain the support after the price falls to 1.14x then.
The greenback rose against euro ahead of ECB's monetary meeting on Thursday. The no-deal Brexit risk supported dollar, too. After US Labor Day, dollar rose due to equities in technology sector was in the sharp correction and risk-off trading.
Dollar gained since good Non-Farm Payrolls and lowered unemployment rate, market experts don't think the greenback's rise is the mainstream, though. And Gjallarhorn still has the outlook of weak dollar and strong euro, too.
Because the US economy growth is worried and the benchmark interest rate is anticipated low for a long time. And Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke the Flexible Average Inflation Targeting which implies Fed will not raise the benchmark interest rate though the inflation hit over 2 percent.
Most market analysts predict that there will be no policy change. They are wary of the possibility of sending a message that seemed concerned about inflation or a strong euro.
A researcher in Captal Economics spoke the strong dollar is tempoary because the global economy will recover from the shock of the novel respiratory coronavirus infection.
There is an analysis that ECB may be more dovish and dollar will be gained.
The experts in Wall Street think it takes long time for the US economy to recover. Analysts predict that the dollar will continue to weaken for at least three months, depending on the Fed's monetary policy outlook.
Netherlands's bank ING forecasted euro's rise to 1.20 in one month. After this correction euro keeps upward rise due to the fundamental momentum.
Vice-Fed Chair, Richard H. Clarida spoke the natural rate of interest had gradually dropped since 2012 and began to reconsider the monetary-policy frame. And he hinted FOMC might use Yield Curve Control(YCC) if needed.
Meanwhile German government adjusted German economy growth up to minus 5.8 percent, which was -6.3 percent when released in April.
---------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Saturday, 5 September 2020
[EUR] After Non-Farm Payrolls 2020 0905
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] EUR, Trying to Exceed 1.20 2020 0902
cf. [EUR] Before Powell's Speech 2020 0827
cf. [EUR] Moderate Euro before Powell's Speech 2020 0826
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2020 0821
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It records the loss because euro has retreated for days. Euro needs to exceed 1.20 in order for Gjallahorn's losses to turn into profit.
The currency pair, EUR/USD made the head-and-shoulders pattern which shows the downtrend conversion in the one-hour chart. And the price of the pair dropped to 1.1788. It tried to rebound but failed after touching the upper band of Bollinger Bands.
The price fell after the US Non-Farm Payrolls and formed the V pattern in the one-hour chart. It is not uncertain whether it succeeds to rebound and reach to 1.20, yet.
Though euro has been in the correction, it is supported the mild support line in the four-hour chart. And we can find the price of the currency pair has been supported by 20 Moving Average in the daily chart, and it gives the long bias of euro to the market participants.
Dollar rose due to the better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Dollar Index, dollar's value against the currency basket of major six currencies rose 0.04 percent to 92.781.
Non-Farm Payrolls' record made the market participants expect the recovery of the US economy and supported the greenback. But the correction of the stocks in the technology sector reduced dollar.
And the unemployment rate in August dropped to 8.4 percent, which was expected 9.8 percent. That in July was 10.2 percent.
Dollar gained due to good Non-Farm Payrolls and lowered unemployment rate, it doesn't change the bias of weak greenback though. Gjallarhorn still has the outlook of weak dollar and strong euro. And the market analysts guess dollar is on the downward trend, too.
Because the US economy growth is worried and the benchmark interest rate is anticipated low for a long time. And Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke the Flexible Average Inflation Targeting which implies Fed will not raise the benchmark interest rate though the inflation hit over 2 percent.
The experts in Wall Street pointed out that the increase in the number of jobs is good news, but it takes long time for the US economy to recover.
Analysts predict that the dollar will continue to weaken for at least three months, depending on the Fed's monetary policy outlook.
Dow Jones reported on Friday that Bank of America (BoA) has upgraded the eurozone's economic outlook this year from -7.9% to -7.3%. However, the growth rate for next year was lowered from 4.3% to 3.8%.
Netherlands's bank ING forecasted euro's rise to 1.20 in one month. After this correction euro keeps upward rise due to the fundamental momentum.
Vice-Fed Chair, Richard H. Clarida spoke the natural rate of interest had gradually dropped since 2012 and began to reconsider the monetary-policy frame. And he hinted FOMC might use Yield Curve Control(YCC) if needed.
Meanwhile German government adjusted German economy growth up to minus 5.8 percent, which was -6.3 percent when released in April.
---------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD
Tuesday, 1 September 2020
[EUR] EUR, Trying to Exceed 1.20 2020 0902
 |
| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Before Powell's Speech 2020 0827
cf. [EUR] Moderate Euro before Powell's Speech 2020 0826
cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2020 0821
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It records the loss because it was bought at the local peak. Euro needs to exceed 1.20 in order for Gjallahorn's losses to turn into profit.
The currency pair EUR/USD retreated after the US ISM Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday. It recorded 56.0 better than market's expectation. It supported the recovering US economy and the investors bought the greenback.
The pair tries to form the head-and-shoulders pattern and the price could drop to 1.1820, 120 exponential moving average of four-hour chart. The price fluctuates in the channel in four-hour chart and daily chart, and it seems to accumulate the momentum up or down.
Gjallarhorn expects euro will rise over 1.20 and it saves the momentum of exceeding it.
The better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI supported the falling greenback on Tuesday. Before the release-it, euro recorded 1.20, the highest peak in 52 weeks. The speech of Jerome Powell, Fed Chair at Jackson Hole Symposium made dollar plunge. He confirmed 'the Average Inflation Targeting' which admit the 2 percent over of inflation and there will not be the hike of the benchmark interest rate in long term.
But good record in the US manufacturing sector turned greenback to upward.
Fed Chair, Powell denied the possible negative benchmark interest rate in May.
It was 56.0 and the market consensus was 50.0. It was high since November 2018.
Societe General has diagnosed that the euro's long position against the dollar was too much, and it has burdened.
Though US dollar rose on Tuesday, the downward trend of greenback is still valid, Gjallarhorn thinks.
Netherlands's bank ING forecasted euro's rise to 1.20 in one month. After this correction euro keeps upward rise due to the fundamental momentum.
Vice-Fed Chair, Richard H. Clarida spoke the natural rate of interest had gradually dropped since 2012 and began to reconsider the monetary-policy frame. And he hinted FOMC might use Yield Curve Control(YCC) if needed.
Meanwhile German government adjusted German economy growth up to minus 5.8 percent, which was -6.3 percent when released in April.
---------------------------------------
Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.
You can ask by messenger and e-mail.
Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft)
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .
If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.
PayPal kmuk001@gmail.com.
Thank you.
e-mail - kmuk001@gmail.com
Telegram - @morgenluft
Telegram broadcasting - t.me/gjallarhorn_report
https://www.facebook.com/Gjallarhorn.report/
http://morgenluft.blogspot.com
#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD