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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Unstable Euro in the Pandemic 2020 0922
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro Ahead of FOMC 2020 0915
Gjallarhorn holds the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
The currency pair EUR/USD dived in this week.
The pair which had attempted to break through the important price, 1.20 plunged to 1.1611. It recovered technically and finished this week with 1.1629 according to the chart of FXDD.com.
The price of the euro fell without any meaningful recovering, and it showed the strong downward trend.
The price of 1.20 is meaningful and the resistance against breaking-through is strong. The downward trend line which has been effective more ten years is on some 1.20 these days. The exceeding 1.20 means that the price breaks through the main downward trend line, and the greenback enters bearish period.
The first try failed, Gjallarhorn confesses to recording the loss.
The four-hour chart suggests that the euro may rebound technically in the next early week. We can expect the euro may rise against dollar to 1.1725 at first. It is the upper band of Bollinger Bands.
If the euro's bearish trend continues, the price, 1.149x may be support line.
The surging greenback in this week owes to the fear of the re-proliferation of coronavirus in Europe. The rising infection cases in Europe has made the fear of the blockade again, and the risk-on sentiment was exchanged to the risk-off.
The fear of second blockade in Europe, the short-covering of the greenback and the uncertainty of U.S. politics before the Presidential election boosted safe-haven U.S. dollar. The dollar index, greenback's price against six-currencies basket surged to 94.604.
The second rising-infection cases in Europe called the safe-haven greenback selling euro.
JP Morgan expected the forth-quarter economy growth of the United States 2.5 percent, it was lowered from 3.5 percent. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America lowered it to 3 percent, too.
The political uncertainty burdens the market, too. The campaign of Donald Trump and Joe Biden till the Presidential Election on November 3 supports the bullish dollar.
The risen dollar lowered the price of crude oil and another safe-haven gold.
The price of crude oil WTI futures dropped to 40.25 dollar. Gold futures' price in New York market retreated 0.7 percent or 12.60 dollar to 1864.30 dollar.
The euro plunged, Eurozone economy recovers gradually though. Economy index, German Ifo Business Climate in September hit 93.4. Though it is lower than market expectation 93.9, it rose from 92.5 in August and it has risen for months.
Ifo expects German economy will record six percent in the third quarter on the previous quarter. German authority revised the German economy growth in the year from minus 6.4 percent to minus 5.8 percent.
Meanwhile Christine Lagarde, president of European Central Bank has spoken that ECB watches the strong euro carefully and ECB has worries about the euro's rising. Because the strong euro burdens the economy recovery in Eurozone. And it may restrain the rising height of euro.
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