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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Fear of Twindemic 2020 1019
cf. [EUR] Short USD and Long EUR II 2020 1014
cf. [EUR] Short USD and Long EUR 2020 1013
Gjallarhorn keeps the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME. It still records the loss.
Gjallarhorn recommends you the boring management rather than the splendid skill. The skill without the capital management doesn't keep your accounts. Though the deal failed, the capital management eases the loss and guards the accounts.
The currency pair EUR/USD succeeded to rise in the last week. The Head-and-Shoulders pattern was formed in the one-hour chart, it rebounded at 1.1786 though.
It is positive to euro that the downward trend line in the four-hour chart risese gradually. And 20 Moving Average in the charts direct upward, too.
We can expect the strong euro and be recommended to buy it.
Gjallarhorn anticipates it could exceed 1.1860 at first, because it meets the bearish trend line in the four-hour chart around 1.1860 according to FXDD.com data.
The technical analysis, however, isn't effective than the fundamental analysis nowadays.
The Forex market is directed by the news of the US Presidential election and COVID-19.
The COVID-19 re-proliferation and the fear of twindemic of COVID-19 and influenza make the investors' risk-off sentiment. The negative news makes investors buy the safety-haven asset such as US dollar and gold.
The investors hesitate to buy more risk-on asset due to the uncertain result of the election.
Wall Street expect Joe Biden's victory in the Presidential election on November 3 and say ''Biden Trade'' selling dollar. And they expect the Democratic Party does more stimulus after winning the election.
Goldman Sachs predicted the weak greenback because the vaccine against COVID-19 will be made and the Democratic Party and Joe Biden beat the Republican Party and Donald Trump respectively on November 3.
The most of the polls about the election support Biden, the Democrat and preidict the Trump's loss. But it isn't certain yet. The approval rate to Donald Trump rises espcially in the swing states rapidly.
Donald Trump won Hillary Clinton and become the president though he got less votes than Clinton's four years ago. And the market participants are prudent to buy the risk-on and someone waits doing after the election.
The Wall Street expected the fiscal stimulus before the election, but it doesn't look possible.
Therefore, the rising of euro may be restrictive. And we need to watch the news more than analyse the charts.
And the long bias to euro is still valid. Gjallarhorn still recommends to buy euro rather than to buy dollar in mid-and-long term.
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Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.
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