[EUR] Sidling EUR 2021 0201

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] 여전히 갈림길에 선 유로화 2021 0129  https://youtu.be/62oB9Ka4kgE

cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2021 0128

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market. 

The currency pair which has gone sideways began to fluctuate in the flat Bollinger Bands when the week began. It tries to break through the downward trend line and it moves around 1.2125 as of 03:00(GMT).

It seems to fluctuate in the sidling hours charts on Monday.

And the investors should be noticed the Non-farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate will be released on Friday. It is the big events in the forex market.

And there is the possibility of the Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the daily chart. Though the possibility may be low, the investors need to watch the chart carefully. If then, the euro may retreat to 1.1860.

The foreign exchange markets watch the short squeeze in the New York stock market. The volatility in the New York stock market may strengthen the safe-haven dollar. 

The concern of the US fiscal stimulus's downsize reduces. The Blue wave can pass the stimulus without the Republicans' cooperation.

Before markets closed for the week, the officials at the European Central Bank said the chances of a rate cut happening any time soon were quite low. This helped the Euro to steady on Friday.

Euro Exchange Rate News reported, some analysts still expressed caution over the Euro, suggesting that the ECB will continue to try to keep the Euro from getting too strong. Analysts at TD Securities said, the skepticism over the EUR should remain and for all the focus on the vaccine race, the EU lost definitely all the while it disputes a major vaccine provider. They added the vaccine problem would threaten a multi-albeit unimpressive-speed recovery in the EU.

Meanwhile IMF, the International Monetary Fund forecasted the 5.5 percent growth of the world economy in the year with the World Economic Outlook Report. It was adjusted 0.3 percent point up than the 5.2 percent of the expectation in last October. IMF anticipated the vaccine injection against COVID-19 would help the economy recovery.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른]인문학이 들려주는 트레이딩 원리 #4 - 세상은 어떻게 움직일까

[JPY] Sank Yen 2021 01230

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Bullish Yen 2021 0122

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of euro futures.

The currency pair USD/JPY rose breaking through the downward trend line in the week. It was anticipated the pair would drop around the trend line and keep the downward trend.

Because the currency pair has formed the bearish trend line in the main downward trend line since the pandemic.

It rose hard on Friday, and it seems that the pair holds the bullish momentum in the next week, too. The correction could be permitted to 104.45. The USD/JPY which rose after the fluctuation in Bollinger Band in the four-hour chart was anticipated to face the resistance around 104.00, but it surged.

The yen, as the safe-haven asset, has used risen when the risk-averse sentiment is the dominant sentiment in the market. The equities in New York market sink and the risk-off was emphasized, but Japanese Yen dropped against the dollar on Friday.

Meanwhile IMF, the International Monetary Fund forecasted the 5.5 percent growth of the world economy in the year with the World Economic Outlook Report. It was adjusted 0.3 percent point up than the 5.2 percent of the expectation in last October. IMF anticipated the vaccine injection against COVID-19 would help the economy recovery.

---------------------------

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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른][EUR] 여전히 갈림길에 선 유로화 2021 0129

[EUR] Euro in the Correction 2021 0128

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2021 0128

cf. [EUR] Euro Sideways 2021 0126

cf. [EUR] Still Bullish Euro 2021 0123

cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2021 0120

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market. 

The fluctuating EUR/USD stepped down along the bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart. It still oscillates around the main downward trend line in the chart.

It is needed to watch whether the price breaks through the adjusted main downward trend line around 1.2170. The euro which retreated yesterday tries to rebound around 1.21, now.

 

And the investors should notice the possibility of forming the Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the daily chart, too. If then, the euro may fall to 1.1860.

FOMC statements on Wednesday didn't get out of the market's expectation. FOMC froze the benchmark interest rate 0.0~0.25 percent and maintained its $120 billion monthly pace of bond purchases.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell reconfirmed the Flexible Form of Average Inflation Targeting.

Powell didn't concern the recent rising inflation expectation and said the global disinflation pressure and confirmed there wouldn't be the Quantitative Easing Tapering for a while.

Though the dovish stance of Fed, the currency pair fell from the ahead of the FOMC statement release and the press conference. It dropped over one big since Europe session. The euro dropped to the lowest since January 18 on Wednesday as dovish comments from Dutch Governor and the Fed’s downbeat appearance called the investors' risk-averse sentiment and the dollar's rising.

The forex traders are waiting for the Advance GDP in forth quarter released on Thursday.

Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank emphasized the foreign exchange rate of euro is watched strengthening verbal intervention.

Bloomberg cited an anonymous ECB official as saying that markets are underestimating the odds of a further cut to the minus 0.5 percent deposit rate.

The economy growth in Eurozone seems not to recover soon. And the lockdown against the re-proliferation is strengthened, it made the investors to concern the double dip in Europe.

Meanwhile IMF, the International Monetary Fund forecasted the 5.5 percent growth of the world economy in the year with the World Economic Outlook Report. It was adjusted 0.3 percent point up than the 5.2 percent of the expectation in last October. IMF anticipated the vaccine injection against COVID-19 would help the economy recovery.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[EUR] Euro Sideways 2021 0126

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Still Bullish Euro 2021 0123

cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2021 0120

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market. 

The currency pair EUR/USD fluctuated in Bollinger Bands, and it tries to exceed the 120 EMA in the four-hour chart. It retreated on Monday, it succeeded to rebound from the support line though.

The currency pair has formed the gradual double-bottoms pattern and tries to break through the 120 EMA fluctuating it in the four-hour chart.

It seems to move up and down in the sidling Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart.

The euro fell due to the risk-averse sentiment on Monday. The concern about the economy-recovery delaying due to the re-proliferation of the coronavirus supported the greenback.

The economy growth in Eurozone seems not to recover soon. And the lockdown against the re-proliferation is strengthened, it made the investors to concern the double dip in Europe.

The German Ifo Business Climate released on Monday was 90.1, worse than expected 91.9. Previous index was 92.2.

The U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI was 59.1 which was expected 56.6 and previous 57.1 according to ForexFactory.com. But German Flash Manufacturing PMI was 57.0 worse than expected 57.3 and previous 58.3.

And the investors also watch the injection case of the vaccine. Because the distribution and injection of the anti-corona virus vaccine is not satisfactory, and it makes some countries in Euro zone extend the lockdown.

And the market participants wait for the FOMC meeting. FOMC releases its benchmark interest rate and FOMC statement after the meeting in the afternoon Wednesday, and the press conference is held.

It is anticipated that Fed will hold its monetary policy, and the market watches the possible tapering of Quantitative Easing. Because the U.S. inflation rises than expected.

But the market participants hold the bearish dollar in the year.

The news medias reported net dollar short positions swelling to the largest since May 2011 citing analysts' comments on last Friday.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[EUR] Still Bullish Euro 2021 0123

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2021 0120

cf. [EUR] Retreating EUR 2021 0118

cf. [EUR] Euro at the Crossroads 2021 0115

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market. 

Gjallarhorn has the bias of the bullish euro and thinks the correction as the chance of buying euro.

The currency pair EUR/USD which retreated in the early month succeeded to rebound at 1.2052(FXDD.com data) and reached 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart. It tries to exceed the 120 EMA.

The currency pair formed the gradual double-bottoms pattern and goes sideways around the 120 EMA in the four-hour chart.

It is valid to keep the upward trend of the euro, Gjallarhorn analyses.

It is reported the United States hasn't locked down though the re-proliferation of COVID-19 and its economy kept the momentum since the year. 

The U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI was 59.1 which was expected 56.6 and previous 57.1 according to ForexFactory.com. But German Flash Manufacturing PMI was 57.0 worse than expected 57.3 and previous 58.3.

The different record of economy in the United States and Europe restrained the rising of the euro.

And the investors also watch the injection case of the vaccine. Because the distribution and injection of the anti-corona virus vaccine is not satisfactory, and it makes some countries in Euro zone extend the lockdown.

Yonhap Infomax, the economy news agency reported, the rising cases of the virus and the economy records in Europe showed the lockdown was the obstacle in the economy recovery citing market strategist at Western Union Business Solutions.

And the market participants watch the U.S. T-bond yield which has gone sideways around 1.1 percent. Due to the expected extension of the fiscal spending in Biden's government, the rising yield of T-bond supports the strong greenback. Most analysts expect the weak dollar as did in last year. Because Fed keeps the easing monetary policy and it is expected that the global economy will rebound after the pandemic diminishes by the vaccine.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[JPY] Bullish Yen 2021 0122

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

Gjallarhorn holds the long position of euro futures.

The currency pair USD/JPY holds its bearish trend, and it is still valid to keep the downward bias to the pair. The pair has lowered its peaks since 1998. There are bullish trend and bearish trend, the main trend has been downward though.

Since the pandemic, the currency pair has formed the downward trend line in the main bearish trend line.

The USD/JPY rises after the fluctuation in Bollinger Band in the four-hour chart. It is anticipated the pair faces the resistance around 104.00 and it could be a good deal to sell the currency pair at the resistance line.

It supports the short bias of US dollar against yen, and strong yen and weak dollar.

Bank of Japan released its menetary policy on Thursday and it wasn’t effective to the market. BoJ kept the policy.

The market participants watch the U.S. T-bond yield which has gone sideways around 1.1 percent. Due to the expected extension of the fiscal spending in Biden's government, the rising yield of T-bond supports the strong greenback. Most analysts expect the weak dollar as did in last year. Because Fed keeps the easing monetary policy and it is expected that the global economy will rebound after the pandemic diminishes by the vaccine.

The Japanese Yen is evaluate as the risk-averse asset than the dollar. The recovery of the global economy may lower yen, too. The traders need to watch the chart carefully.

---------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[EUR] Rebounding Euro 2021 0120

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

cf. [EUR] Retreating EUR 2021 0118

cf. [EUR] Euro at the Crossroads 2021 0115

Gjallarhorn liquidated the short position of euro and swung to the long position in the futures market. 

The currency pair EUR/USD which retreated in the early month succeeded to rebound at 1.2052(FXDD.com data) and exceeded 120 exponential moving average in the one-hour chart. And it has risen breaking through 20 moving average.

It seems to rise to 1.2166 first which is 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart.

The currency pair formed V pattern which shows sharp trend turning. But we need to know it is less reliable than other trend-turning patterns.

If euro continues to rally, the investors can be interested whether it break through 1.2547, too. The price of 1.2547 is the previous peak in 2018. The exceeding the peak in 2018 may mean euro is on the upward trend.

Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary-designate spoke the foreign exchange should be controlled by the market and would do actively against the artificial forex control by other countries while her confirmation hearing.

Yellen's statement supported the risk-on sentiment, and risky currencies such as Chinese Yuan and British Pound rose against the dollar. And euro did, too.

Euro should challenge the obstacles. The circumstance around the market isn't always friendly to euro. The rising COVID-19 cases hinders Euro zone economy growth and euro's rally. The global pharmaceuticals developed the vaccine, the re-proliferation is still active though. The doses of injection aren't sufficient yet.

In addition, the officials of ECB, the European Central Bank are unwilling to see the euro's rising because they should boost the eurozone's economy. Therefore, ECB President Christine Lagarde and other senior ECB officials have expressed their dissatisfaction with the current situation, saying they are closely watching the recent euro's moving.

Therefore, some analysts expect the euro in the correction and dollar's rally in the short term. FXStreet.com has supported the bearish bias in the mid term and long term showing the major result of the poll is bearish in one month and one quarter.

Gjallarhorn has the bias of the bullish euro and thinks the correction as the chance of buying euro.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른][EUR] 반등을 모색하는 유로화 2021 0119

[EUR] Retreating EUR 2021 0118

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Euro at the Crossroads 2021 0115

cf. [EUR] Rebounding EURO 2021 0113

cf. [EUR] Euro in the correction II 2021 0111

Gjallarhorn got the short position of euro in the futures market. Because it paid attention the bearish trend.

The currency pair EUR/USD retreated since January 7. It tried to rebound on last Wednesday but it failed and has kept its bearish momentum. The euro has rallied since last November and it's time to take a break.

The pair moves along the bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart and the daily chart, and it is anticipated that the pair keeps its downward trend in the short term. The weekly chart of the currency pair doesn't show an explicit signals yet. And we need to watch the chart more carefully.

The market participants need to prepare the possibility of euro's retreat to 1.21 and 1.20 in turn. And euro may step down to the main downward trend line which has been formed since 2008. It is below 1.20.

The analysts think the recent correction of euro to dollar is due to the continuous rising of COVID-19 cases worldwide. The rising cases has kept investors cautious.

FXStreet.com reported, FX Strategists at UOB Group expect the pair EUR/USD to drop in the next weeks on Monday. The downward momentum is strong and further EUR weakness is likely.

And Janet Yellen, the Secretary-designate of the Treasury is expected to speak dollar is controlled by the market at her confirmation hearing on Wednesday contrary to Trump administration's weak greenback policy.

Her comments is in principle, market participants take note of her speak though.

Meanwhile, FXStreet.com has supported the bearish bias in the mid term and long term showing the major result of the poll is bearish in one month and one quarter.

Gjallarhorn's view on the currency pair is neutral. EUR/USD would be in the correction but it's uncertain whether it would rebound or keep the bearish in the mid and long term.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[EUR] Euro at the Crossroads 2021 0115

EUR/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Rebounding EURO 2021 0113

cf. [EUR] Euro in the correction II 2021 0111

The Euro is still in the correction, and we need to prepare the possibility of euro's retreat to 1.21 and 1.20 in turn. 

The currency pair EUR/USD was supported around 1.2145 in the week according to FXDD.com data, but it dropped to near 1.21 temporarily and rebounded.

The charts of the pair don't give the positive signals yet, it makes the investors hesitate buy the euro.

There are two scenarios.

One is that it is just the correction. The market participants just wait for the time of the rebound. The euro has rallied since last November and it's time to take a break.

The other is its oscillation in the trend line. It has broken the main downward trend line, it can return to the bearish trend since 2008.

The weekly chart of the currency pair doesn't show an explicit signals yet. And we need to watch the chart more.

And the forex speculative traders have bought the short positions of the dollar since last March because the risk-on sentiment has led the investors to selling the greenback.

The U.S. fiscal stimulus is expected to strengthen the risk-on sentiment. It suggests the bearish dollar.

But it is evaluated that the euro's rising against the greenback is not powerful than the market's expectation. Senior officials from the European Central Bank (ECB) said they would strengthen monitoring without hiding the uncomfortable feelings of the euro appreciation one after another.

Meanwhile, the deteriorated record in the U.S. employment market led the bullish greenback by Thursday afternoon. The unemployment claims hit 965 thousands worse than the market expectation of 785 thousand cases. It refreshed the record since last August.

But Jerome Powell, Fed Chair noted the still time to raise interest rates is no time soon and Fed would not alter its monetary policy for the foreseeable future, which however, came as little surprise and had limited impact on the greenback. The market's concern about the tapering was resolved and the currency pair rebounded in the afternoon(GMT).

Meanwhile, FXStreet.com has supported the bearish bias in the mid term and long term showing the major result of the poll is bearish in one month and one quarter.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[EUR] Rebounding EURO 2021 0113

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Euro in the correction II 2021 0111

cf. [EUR] Euro in the correction 2021 0107

cf. [EUR] The Correction of EUR in the Short Term 2021 0104

The currency pair EUR/USD succeeded to rebound at 1.2130 and keeps rising. It exceeded 120 Exponential Moving Average in the one-hour chart and 20 Simple Moving Average in the four-hour chart respectively.

It can rise to 1.2250 of the upper band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart. But we need to watch the chart more carefully, because there may be one more correction.

The rising dollar retreated as the U.S. Bond yields fell. The yields rose before the President's inauguration of Joe Biden. It has been expected that Biden President-elect and the major Democratic Party will approve the more fiscal stimulus package. The long-term yield has risen sharply.

The Dollar Index which tracks the greenback against a basket of major six currencies stepped down 0.08% to 89.940 by 02:51(GMT).

The majority of the forex analysts expect the weak dollar which dropped near seven percent in the last year, as they anticipate the stimulus and the recovery of the global economy in the year, Yonhap Infomax reported on Wednesday.

Meanwhile FXStreet.com supports the bearish bias in the mid term and long term showing the major result of the poll is bearish in one month and one quarter. But Gjallarhorn still keeps the bullish bias of the currency pair EUR/USD.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[EUR] Euro in the correction II 2021 0111

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

cf. [EUR] Euro in the correction 2021 0107

cf. [EUR] The Correction of EUR in the Short Term 2021 0104

One of the major currency pair EUR/USD continues its correction after the hitting 1.2349 on last Wednesday. The pair fell under the bullish trend line in the four-hour chart.

The pair which has broken through the major downward trend line and 1.20, doesn't seem to exceed the peak made in 2018, now. It needs to get more momentum to hit the record in several years.

It is interpreted that the correction saves the momentum to make the new bullish trend. And the forex investors need to prepare the correction of the risky euro against dollar. The currency may retreat to 1.21.

As the euro steps down, the greenback rebounds as the week begins. The dollar rose as U.S. yields jumped. The market participants expect more fiscal stimulus for the U.S. economy and get the risk-averse sentiment.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against the six-major-currencies basket rose. The Dollar Index Futures rose to 90.317 at 06:38 (GMT).

The more fiscal stimulus, the weaker greenback, but the dollar gains in the short term due to the U.S. bond yields.

Meanwhile Non-farm Payrolls released on last Friday showed the still recession in the United States. It decreased 140 thousands comparing to that in last November.

But Gjallarhorn analyses the bias to the euro is still upward.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD

[물리I][묵조교] 속도와 속력

[EUR] Euro in the correction 2021 0107

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

cf. [EUR] The Correction of EUR in the Short Term 2021 0104

The currency pair EUR/USD hit 1.2348 and retreated forming double-tops pattern in the one-hour chart. Though its drop, it fluctuates in Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart and the upward trend line tries to support the pair.

But the forex investors should prepare the possibility the price of euro against dollar could fall to 1.2200 where 120 exponential moving average lays in the four-hour chart.

The currency pair can step down to 1.216x at first and 1.205x next step.

The correction isn't so bad, it is need to take a break.

Dollar shows its bullish due to the U.S. blue wave which has been completed.

The bias to the dollar is still bearish. Besides the Democratic Party has gotten the triple crown. Two new senators from the Democratic Party were elected and the Democrats become the major in the Senate as well as the House of the Representatives.

The market participants expect the more fiscal stimulus. It means the greenback is devalued against the risky currencies.

But the employment market didn't satisfied the Forex traders. ADP Non-Farm employment decreased 123 thousands, which was expected 60 thousands increasing. It makes the risk-averse sentiment.

Meanwhile, European stock markets edged largely higher Thursday, with a strikingly broad range of stocks hitting all-time highs as investors looking for additional fiscal spending following a projected win for Democrats in the U.S. Senate.

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[EUR] The Correction of EUR in the Short Term 2021 0104

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Preparing EURO's Correction 2020 1223

The currency pair EUR/USD retreated at the end of last year. It seemed the technical correction.

The pair of EUR/USD has succeeded to break through the main bearish trend line which was formed since 2008 and exceeded 1.20 in the last year. The pair which has risen gradually since last November is expected to keep the bullish trend but there will be the correction in the short term.

The euro exceeded 1.2300 and retreated soon at the end of they year 2020. The euro has rallied without a big correction since last November and consumed the momentum. It is time to take a break.

The currency pair can step down to 1.216x at first and 1.205x next step.

It is a technical correction, and it is still valid to keep the bullish bias to euro.

It is expected the more fiscal stimulus in the Biden Administration. The U.S. parliament has agreed the 900 billion dollar 

fiscal stimulus. It supports the weak greenback. The dollar index futures tracking dollar against six major-currency basket fell below 90.0. Federal Reserve led by Jerome Powell supports near zero key interest rate till 2023 at least. 

It suggests for the investors to sell the dollar and buy the euro and the risky currencies.

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Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail.

Facebook messenger and telegram(@morgenluft) 

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#Gjallarhorn, #EUR, #euro, #EURUSD