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| EUR/USD weekly chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Rebounding EURO 2021 0113
cf. [EUR] Euro in the correction II 2021 0111
The Euro is still in the correction, and we need to prepare the possibility of euro's retreat to 1.21 and 1.20 in turn.
The currency pair EUR/USD was supported around 1.2145 in the week according to FXDD.com data, but it dropped to near 1.21 temporarily and rebounded.
The charts of the pair don't give the positive signals yet, it makes the investors hesitate buy the euro.
There are two scenarios.
One is that it is just the correction. The market participants just wait for the time of the rebound. The euro has rallied since last November and it's time to take a break.
The other is its oscillation in the trend line. It has broken the main downward trend line, it can return to the bearish trend since 2008.
The weekly chart of the currency pair doesn't show an explicit signals yet. And we need to watch the chart more.
And the forex speculative traders have bought the short positions of the dollar since last March because the risk-on sentiment has led the investors to selling the greenback.
The U.S. fiscal stimulus is expected to strengthen the risk-on sentiment. It suggests the bearish dollar.
But it is evaluated that the euro's rising against the greenback is not powerful than the market's expectation. Senior officials from the European Central Bank (ECB) said they would strengthen monitoring without hiding the uncomfortable feelings of the euro appreciation one after another.
Meanwhile, the deteriorated record in the U.S. employment market led the bullish greenback by Thursday afternoon. The unemployment claims hit 965 thousands worse than the market expectation of 785 thousand cases. It refreshed the record since last August.
But Jerome Powell, Fed Chair noted the still time to raise interest rates is no time soon and Fed would not alter its monetary policy for the foreseeable future, which however, came as little surprise and had limited impact on the greenback. The market's concern about the tapering was resolved and the currency pair rebounded in the afternoon(GMT).
Meanwhile, FXStreet.com has supported the bearish bias in the mid term and long term showing the major result of the poll is bearish in one month and one quarter.
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