[EUR] Fluctuating EURO 2021 0213

cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2021 0209

cf. [EUR] 반등에 성공한 유로 2021 0206  https://youtu.be/tIZmzzdzRA8

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market.

The currency pair EUR/USD retreated but it rebounded again, Friday. It is under the downward trend line yet and on the 20 Moving Average line in the four-hour chart.

It seems to try to break through the bearish trend line again and fluctuate in Bollinger Bands in the daily chart, in the next week. Then the market participants can anticipate the fluctuation of the pair ranging from 1.1960 to 1.2200.

This bullish dollar is analysed to be the return against the rapid correction of the greenback.

The forecast of the U.S. fiscal stimulus package isn't accord. Some analysts think it will help the U.S. economy and the bullish greenback. The others anticipate the bearish dollar.

The huge package will boost the US economy recovery relatively and it will help the bullish greenback, some analysts think. The others think, the fiscal stimulus will help the global reflation and the risk-off currencies rise against the dollar.

BD Swiss Group guess the bearish dollar. The market continues the rally and Fed won't change its monetary policy, Yonhap Infomax reported citing BD Swiss Group.

A MUFG analyst expected, the greenback would be bearish for some weeks. The U.S. President Biden's plan and the continuous QE policy by Fed support the dollar short, he said.

But the analysts at Danske Bank forecast EUR/USD at 1.22 in one to three months and look for a decline to 1.16 in a year. Because the U.S. economy growth will be better than that in Eurozone, it make the euro down for twelve months.

 EUR/USD thus faces structural decline due to a lack of competitiveness. A valuation reversal (lower EUR/USD) could come from rising US real rates, fading EU optimism, or Chinese slowdown, Danske Bank said.

Meanwhile the European Central Bank President Lagarde has stated, ECB's preferred tool was the pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP), which differed from the ECB’s other asset purchase programs, meaning that the euro will be hamstrung for the foreseeable future. 

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