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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] 조정을 겪은 유로 2021 0202
cf. [EUR] Sidling EUR 2021 0201
cf. [EUR] 여전히 갈림길에 선 유로화 2021 0129
cf. [EUR] Euro in the Correction 2021 0128
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market.
The currency pair EUR/USD has slipped below 1.2050, falling to the lowest levels since early December.
As the anticipation of the injection of anti-COVID-19 vaccine and the economy recovery in the United States may be completed faster than that in Eurozone, was supported, euro plunged. The euro barely succeeded in rebound at the end of New York session.
The Dollar Index tracking dollar against the currency basket composed of major six currencies rose 0.06 percent to 91.091.
The possible extension of lockdown in some Europe countries lowered euro to the bottom in two months. The market is concerned the more negative growth in Eurozone in the first quarter.
But the euro could rebound due to the market's consensus of less effectiveness of the possible negative benchmark interest rate.
The economy news agency, Yonhap Infomax reported, the short covering of short-position raised the dollar.
The President, Joe Biden met GOP senators but failed to reach the deal of the fiscal stimulus package. The news supported the greenback, too.
But a lot of market participants thought the recent bullish greenback was just the correction of falling dollar index which fell seven percent in last year, Yonhap Infomax reported.
Meanwhile IMF, the International Monetary Fund forecasted the 5.5 percent growth of the world economy in the year with the World Economic Outlook Report. It was adjusted 0.3 percent point up than the 5.2 percent of the expectation in last October. IMF anticipated the vaccine injection against COVID-19 would help the economy recovery.
The currency pair forms the V pattern which shows the rapid trend-turning pattern in the one-hour chart. The price of 1.2050s failed to support euro and the price of 1.20xx was tested as a support price band.
Whatever euro's trend line, euro has the minimal margin of rising to 1.2085 which is 20 moving average in the four-hour chart in the short term.
There is the possibility of forming the Head-and-Shoulders pattern in the daily chart and the weekly chart. The possible pattern is made below the bearish trend line and it supports the price of the pair may be on the bearish trend. It is not coincident with the market's expectation.
The investors may be stand on the cross road again with the incongruity between the technical analysis and the market's consensus.
Gjallarhorn hopes the bullish euro.
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