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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] 반등에 성공한 유로 2021 0206 https://youtu.be/tIZmzzdzRA8
cf. [EUR] Retreating EURO 2021 0205
cf. [EUR] Plunged Euro 2021 0203
Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of the euro in the futures market and holds the loss.
The dropping EUR/USD rebounded last week, but it retreated again as the week begins. When New York session began, the currency pair succeeded to rebound amplifing the volatility on Monday.
It formed the V pattern, rapid trend-turning pattern in the four-hour chart and rises in Asian session. It gives the hint of rebounding after being supported on 120 exponential moving average in the daily chart. And the traders could expect the pair will exceed 20 moving average in the daily chart and 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart simultaneously.
If euro breaks through the 20 Moving Average in the daily chart, it is expected that EUR/USD gains and the bullish trend will be hold in the short term. The price of the pair is 1.2076 and 20 MA is on 1.2106 as of 02:50(GMT).
The Dollar Index tracking the dollar against the currency basket of the six major currencies dropped 0.05 percent to 90.937.
It is analysed, some speculators liquidated the short positions of the dollar and the market participants felt the risk-on sentiment expecting the U.S. fiscal stimulus would be done quickly. And it made dollar up and down on Monday.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated the need to pass a 1.9 trillion dollar in fiscal stimulus package, and argued that passage of the stimulus could promote strong enough growth for the United States to return to full employment next year.
The risk-on sentiment rose as Blue Wave passed the bill for the fiscal stimulus package last week.
Though euro rebounds , the economy in Euro zone isn't satisfactory. The concern of double dip rises among the market participants.
The disaccord between euro and the economy state makes the investors hesitate to buy euro.
The re-proliferation of the pandemic in Euro zone and the slow speed of the anti-virus vaccination disturb the recovery of the economy in Euro zone.
Investors are concerned that the vaccinations began in late December and that the roll-out has been complicated across the region.
Meanwhile, IMF, International Monetary Fund recently lowered its growth expectations for the euro area in 2021 and preliminary reading pointed to an annual Gross Domestic Product contraction of 6.8% for the euro area in 2020.
President Lagarde has stated “our commitment to the euro has no limits,” adding, “our preferred tool is the pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP), which differs from the ECB’s other asset purchase programs,” meaning that the euro will be hamstrung for the foreseeable future.
The U.S. economy daily, Wall Street Journal reported it was uncertain the economy in Euro zone would recover shortly, and the result of the vaccination would be the variation of the recovery in Euro zone.
The average vaccination rate in major EU countries is just 3 percent less than ten percent in US and 17 percent in England.
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