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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Safe-haven Dollar 2022 0301
The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.
Gjallarhorn has the short position of euro in the CME now.
The currency pair EUR/USD which rebounded on 1.08s last week, repeats the rising and the falling in hours charts.
It succeeded to stop falling in the daily chart, too.
The currency pair holds onto the week-start rebound to renew daily high around 1.0980, up 0.33% intraday during very early Tuesday morning in Europe.
But the currency is still on the bearish trend. The trend-turning signals are shown in the hour-unit charts. The EUR/USD exceeded the 20 moving average after forming the double-bottoms pattern and broke through the 120 exponential moving average in the one-hour chart. The euro is supported on 1.09s in the four-hour chart.
But the daily chart and the weekly chart still show the downward trend. The euro especially falls along the bottom band of the Bollinger Bands and has broken the long-term upward trend line down in the weekly chart. The euro tries to recover the trend line but the 20 moving average in the weekly chart dives.
The FOMC meeting is hold this week and it is planned the FOMC will release the benchmark interest rate on Wednesday. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will hike the rate 25 bp.
It is recommended to watch the market and to deal after FOMC's decision.
The U.S. bond yield soared again ahead of the anticipated Fed's rate-hike on Monday. And the some hopeful news of talk between Russia and Ukraine supported the risk-on asset. The Dollar Index dropped 0.06 percent to 99.053 in the New York session, Monday.
The expectation of Fed's rate-hike on Wednesday raises the U.S. bond yield. It is expected the FOMC will hike 0.25 percent.
The crude oil prices steadied, too.
Though the U.S. Fed's interest-rate hike, the European Central Bank doesn't seem to hike the benchmark rate. The geopolitical risk due to the Russia's invasion to Ukraine puts the Europe economy into the possible stagflation. Some Europe countries depend on Russia in the energy sector.
The Bank of Korea sees that the markets expect the ECB will hike the benchmark rate 0.25 percent in the year, some investment banks forecast the delay of the hike to the next year, though.
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