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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
cf. [EUR] Fluctuating Euro Ahead of FOMC Meeting 2022 0315
cf. [EUR] Safe-haven Dollar 2022 0301
The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.
Gjallarhorn has the short position of euro in the loss, CME now.
The one of the major currency pair EUR/USD touched the 120 exponential moving average and slipped down to 20 moving average in the four-hour chart at the end of the week.
The investors can anticipate the additional try to exceeded the 120 EMA because the currency pair was supported on 20 MA.
But the market participants need to watch the peaks has been lowered since last month. It is unlikely the pair rises on the the upward trend line though it breaks through the 120 EMA.
The euro succeeded to rebound against the dollar and reached the 20 moving average in the daily chart, it failed to exceed the 20 MA at once and stepped back though. It may try to rise again, but it can be sunken below 20 MA.
The candle bar was made positive and it was supported on the moderate long-term upward trend line in the weekly chart. But the 20 moving average still dives and the price of euro against the dollar moves down.
It is reasonable to keep the short bias to the euro, Gjallarhorn thinks.
The concern of Russia's possible Default diminished as it is reported Russia paid the loan interest by the greenback partly.
The Russia central bank froze its benchmark rate, 20 percent on Friday. The bank rose the key rate more 10 percent to 20 percent on February.
And the euro fell on Friday, it rose against the dollar 1.3 percent in the week though. It showed record-increase since February. The European Central Bank president, Christine Lagarde supported the euro's interest-rate hike, and the euro advanced.
And some members of Federal Reserve claimed the hike of the benchmark interest rate. Jame Bullard, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis claimed the interest rate should be hiked to 3 percent in this year. It means the benchmark rate rose twelve times in the year.
Thomas Barkin, the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond spoke the rate could be hiked 50 bp if necessary. He said, the hike might be 50 bp for the inflation-expectation control.
Christopher Waller, Federal Reserve Governor agreed the rate hike, 50bp.
Fed Chair, Jerome Powell spoke the QT, Quantitative Tightening might be possible from May at the press conference. He expected the QT be effective like the additional interest-rate hike.
And the strategists at Westpec analysed, the diplomatic solution between Russia and Ukraine became advanced and the momentum moved toward the end of the war would lead the bearish dollar index. But they emphasized, the Dollar Index, tracking the greenback against the six peers still toward more 100.0 due to the hawkish Fed.
Meanwhile the two-day FOMC meeting was hold this week and the FOMC hiked the benchmark rate 25 bp as the market expected. Fed Chair, Jerome Powell hinted the six-times hike in the year.
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