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| EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com |
The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.
This report is not responsible for the investors' trading.
Gjallarhorn has long positions in Forex market and they are in loss.
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The currency pair EUR/USD fluctuates since the last week.
The pair tries to exceed the 120 exponential moving average in the one-hour and the four-hour chart respectively, but it failed.
The euro retreated against the dollar but was supported on 1.0659. And the price 1.0788 restrains the rise of the euro.
It hovers in the Bollinger Bands in the short term but the price has risen since last September moderately.
The euro still on the upward trend line though it is in correction in the weekly chart.
It is still valid to keep the bullish bias to euro, Gjallarhorn thinks.
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The U.S. CPI, Consumer Price Index in January rose 6.4 percent year-on-year. It was lowered than the previous CPI. It moderated for seven months it rose higher than the market expectation 6.2 percent though. The moderate CPI but higher than the expectation didn't ease the market's concern about the Fed's tightening policy.
The core CPI which excluded the food prices and the energy prices rose 5.6 percent, which was lowered than that in December but higher than the expectation, 5.5 percent.
The released CPI higher than expectation raised the expected Fed's benchmark rate to 5.5 percent according to the CME's FedWatch. The market predicted it to be frozen after reach to 5.25 percent.
The CPI put the dollar in the mixed state.
The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against its six peers dropped to 103.219 on Tuesday. Though the CPI exceeded the market expectation, the Dollar Index retreated. Because the Forex market watched the moderated CPI. It was low 0.1 percent point than the index released in January.
The members of Fed still showed their hawkish stance.
Thomas I. Barkin, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond spoke the inflation might be slow than the expectation. He said the the inflation indices was in the expectation.
Patrick T. Harker, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia spoke the benchmark rate should be hiked by 25bp to five percent more at the address.
John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York anticipated the more interest-rate hike, Reuters and Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.
He has predicted the benchmark interest rate 5.5 percent in the year and the rate fall in the next year.
The FOMC has hiked the benchmark rate to 4.75 percent.
One market expert forecasts the bullish greenback and the U.S. inflation.
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