[JPY] Hovering Yen 2021 0731

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of EUR at the CME. The positions are under the loss. It doesn't have any position of JPY, yet.

The currency pair USD/JPY lowered its peaks since July but it is confirmed that the price is supported around 109.35~40.

The currency pair failed to exceed 20 Moving Average in the four-hour chart Friday. It implies the bearish trend in the short term, the daily chart and the one-hour chart signals the bullish though. It is anticipated a mild bullish after the correction.

The pair is under the downward trend line. It doesn't seem to break through the trend line at once, there will be the attempt to exceed it though.

The risk-averse sentiment raised the dollar, and the dollar rose against the Japanese Yen, too.

The Fed's shift to the hawkish stance has supported the dollar's rally, and the concern of the inflation made the investors worry.

The US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) in June increased 0.4 percent, which was 0.5 percent in the previous release and the market expected 0.6% increase. It also increased 3.5 percent year-over-year, it recorded high in thirty years. But it was lower than the market's expectation, 3.7 percent. It is reported the Fed values the Core PCE Price Index.

James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis showed his hawkish again, and it helped the greenback's gain. He said, the inflation reached to Fed's expectation and the tapering should be begun in this fall and completed by the 1st quarter in the next year. He expected the more GDP growth in the 2nd half.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

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[JPY] Dollar in the Correction 2021 0220

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Rising Yen, Falling Dollar 2021 0211

cf. [JPY] Sank Yen 2021 01230

cf. [JPY] Bullish Yen 2021 0122

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of euro futures.

The currency pair USD/JPY retreated from 106.21 to 105.40 since Wednesday. It means that the safe-haven Japanese Yen has risen against the dollar. The dollar tried to rebound but failed leaving the doji candles in the four-hour chart.

It seems the pair to step down in the next week, but it may rebound at 105.03x on the upward trend line or 104.9x on 120 exponential moving average.

The recovery of the risk-on sentiment devalued the greenback. The slow recovery in the employment market affected to the dollar, too.

The safe-have Japanese Yen rose against the greenback though the risk-on sentiment.

The Flash Manufacturing PMI in Japan hit 50.6 better than expectation 50.0 and previous 49.8. It hinted the recovery of Japanese economy but it didnd't supported Japanese Yen. The inflation and domestic recovery remained weak.

The Bank of Japan has signaled that it will continue buying ETF’s as needed and has no intention of selling any. That pushed the Nikkei through 30,000 and should continue next week depending on developments on Wall Street.

Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA reported, rising yields made investors nervous and the Fed Chair might put their minds at ease.

The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen supported the risk-on sentiment emphasizing the massive fiscal stimulus package. 

The ruling Democratic will pass the bill of 1.9 trillion dollar package in the next week reportedly.

---------------------------

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[JPY] Rising Yen, Falling Dollar 2021 0211

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Sank Yen 2021 01230

cf. [JPY] Bullish Yen 2021 0122

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of euro futures.

The currency pair USD/JPY retreated after making two peaks when the week began. But the pair has been supported on the 120 Exponential Moving Average in the four-hour chart.

It has gone sideways and doesn't  show any hint of rebound, yet. It seems to be under the pressure of falling more. The traders need to prepare the more correction of USD/JPY to 104.08.

Though its rally since late January, it is still valid to keep the bearish bias to the currency pair. It succeeded to exceed the 120 EMA in the daily chart, it need some trials of exceeding for the trend-turning though. One success of breaking-through the 120 EMA doesn't mean the resistance-line's being broken.

Gjallarhorn thinks it may retreat in the short term and the price of 104.00 may be tested as the support line.

One of the risk-off asset, Japanese Yen fluctuated being linked to the U.S. bonds yields.

The fiscal stimulus package supported by Joe Biden, the U.S. President seems to be passed without the correction due to the Blue Wave. The parliament of the representative and the senators passed the fast track for the package last week, 1.9 trillion-dollar stimulus is anticipated to raise the inflation. It may drop the greenback.

The market participants expect this package help the economy recovery and the bearish dollar. The inflation from the United States may raise the yen against the greenback though the yen is more safe-haven currency.

---------------------------

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[JPY] Sank Yen 2021 01230

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Bullish Yen 2021 0122

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of euro futures.

The currency pair USD/JPY rose breaking through the downward trend line in the week. It was anticipated the pair would drop around the trend line and keep the downward trend.

Because the currency pair has formed the bearish trend line in the main downward trend line since the pandemic.

It rose hard on Friday, and it seems that the pair holds the bullish momentum in the next week, too. The correction could be permitted to 104.45. The USD/JPY which rose after the fluctuation in Bollinger Band in the four-hour chart was anticipated to face the resistance around 104.00, but it surged.

The yen, as the safe-haven asset, has used risen when the risk-averse sentiment is the dominant sentiment in the market. The equities in New York market sink and the risk-off was emphasized, but Japanese Yen dropped against the dollar on Friday.

Meanwhile IMF, the International Monetary Fund forecasted the 5.5 percent growth of the world economy in the year with the World Economic Outlook Report. It was adjusted 0.3 percent point up than the 5.2 percent of the expectation in last October. IMF anticipated the vaccine injection against COVID-19 would help the economy recovery.

---------------------------

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[JPY] Bullish Yen 2021 0122

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

Gjallarhorn holds the long position of euro futures.

The currency pair USD/JPY holds its bearish trend, and it is still valid to keep the downward bias to the pair. The pair has lowered its peaks since 1998. There are bullish trend and bearish trend, the main trend has been downward though.

Since the pandemic, the currency pair has formed the downward trend line in the main bearish trend line.

The USD/JPY rises after the fluctuation in Bollinger Band in the four-hour chart. It is anticipated the pair faces the resistance around 104.00 and it could be a good deal to sell the currency pair at the resistance line.

It supports the short bias of US dollar against yen, and strong yen and weak dollar.

Bank of Japan released its menetary policy on Thursday and it wasn’t effective to the market. BoJ kept the policy.

The market participants watch the U.S. T-bond yield which has gone sideways around 1.1 percent. Due to the expected extension of the fiscal spending in Biden's government, the rising yield of T-bond supports the strong greenback. Most analysts expect the weak dollar as did in last year. Because Fed keeps the easing monetary policy and it is expected that the global economy will rebound after the pandemic diminishes by the vaccine.

The Japanese Yen is evaluate as the risk-averse asset than the dollar. The recovery of the global economy may lower yen, too. The traders need to watch the chart carefully.

---------------------------

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[Gjallarhorn][걀라호른][JPY] 커져가는 안전자산 엔화 하락 가능성 2020 1203

[JPY] Risk-On Setiment 2020 1201

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 cf. [JPY] Stable Yen 2020 0910

There is a downward trend line in the daily chart of currency pair USD/JPY since late February. It supports the short bias of US dollar against yen.

And the pair succeeded in rebounding on Monday. Before facing the resistance line by the daily chart, it seems to rise in the short term. There is about one big margin. It means the weak yen and risk-on sentiment. 

The greenback was down on early Tuesday due to the risk-on sentiment in Asian session. And risk-off asset yen retreats, too. It fell against major currencies including the US dollar.

The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against major currency basket succeeded in rebounding though the risk-on.

The market's expectation of more monetary easing measures from the Federal Reserve lowers the safety asset such as dollar and yen. Yen is more safe than dollar and the yen retreats more than the greenback.

The hopeful COVID-19 vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna for distribution stimulate the markets, though rising virus cases.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said on Monday that difficult months lie ahead. "We're bracing ourselves here," he said, adding that the central bank is open-minded about shifting or even expanding its bond buying program.

The President-elect Joe Biden appointed Janet Yellen, the former Fed Chair as the Threasury Secretary.

And U.S. FOMC meeting is held on December 17. The market participants expect the more market-friendly policy of FOMC but lower their expectation of the US fiscal stimulus in the year.

Meanwhile Gjallarhorn liquidated the long positions of euro-futures in CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

---------------------------

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[JPY] Stable Yen 2020 0910

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0610

cf. [JPY] Risk-on, Falling Yen 2020 0603

cf. [JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0430

Gjallarhorn has the Long position of euro in the futures market, CME but doesn't have any position of Japanese Yen.

The weekly chart of currency pair USD/JPY shows the pair is on the downward trend. As it goes, USD/JPY has lowers its peaks. It supposes traders to have the short bias to the pair.

But we also need to know, there is sufficient margin from the current price in the four-hour chart and the one-hour chart.

In the short term, the price fluctuate and the fluctuation width diminishes step by step. The price seems to converge to 106.10x in four-hour chart. The convergence implies collecting the momentum and it could surge or plunge.

Meanwhile European Central Bank froze its benchmark interest rate to zero, and ECB spoke it would keep PEPP of 1.3 trillion euros while the press conference on Thursday. Risk-on asset prices have risen.

---------------------------

Gjallahorn does not provide any signals, but tries to bring traders to gain insight into the market.

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[JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0610

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Risk-on, Falling Yen 2020 0603
cf. [JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0430

The currency pair USD/JPY retreats since last Friday evening(GMT). It moves steady on early Wednesday and it is expected that the pair plunges as Europe session begins. It means strong Yen and weak dollar. It may be restricted at 108.xx, the upper band of Bollinger Bands though it rises.

We could set 107.15 as a first support line. If the downward trend is strong, the pair could fall deeper to 106.07.

The recent downturn is due to weak greenback against major currencies. Market participants expect the easing policy will be confirmed at FOMC meeting scheduled on Wednesday. Federal Reserve is expected to keep dovish policy including Quantitative Easing and buying even junk bond at FOMC meeting.

The benchmark interest rate will be decided at FOMC meeting at 18:00(GMT), Wednesday. It is anticipated the rate will be frozen. Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke the gloomy outlook of economy in May but he denied the possible negative benchmark interest rate, Federal Funds Rate.

Meanwhile Non-farm Payrolls in May recorded the 2.5 millions increase on last Friday. Market forecasted 7.75 millions decline but the better record supported greenback.

The key currency greenback will be kept downward trend. Then the risky currencies such as euro, sterling and aussie will rise. Japanese yen is the safe-haven asset, it seems to follow risky assets' route though.

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of futures, euro-FX. It is liquidated in September.

---------------------------
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[JPY] Risk-on, Falling Yen 2020 0603

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0430

The pair of safe-haven currencies, USD/JPY rose after the long steady sidling in the horizontal channel on Tuesday. It sidled since March. The price of the currency pair reached the upper band of Bollinger Bands and rose along the band.

It retreats as Asian session has begun. But it recorded the long positive candle and it is expected the price to rise. Rising price means strong dollar and weak yen.

The currency pair has reached 20 Moving Average in the weekly chart and it gives the clue of supporting of price-rising, greenback upward.

We need to be informed that the pair has moved in the directionless channel though the pair rises to upper Bollinger Bands. The both of currencies, dollar and yen are the safe-haven asset, and currencies value move together, Gjallarhorn thinks. And we need to watch the chart carefully searching the signals in the chart.

Meanwhile, Dollar Index, showing dollar's value for the basket of major six currencies fell 0.11 percent to 97.70, recording low since mid-March.

The optimism for the global economy recovery made the investors buy risky assets though Sino-American tension. And Japanese Yen retreated.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell showed his negative economy growth and denied the possible negative benchmark interest rate last month.

The expectation of the global-economy recovery, the recovery package  of Euro Zone and the vaccine against Coronavirus has supported the risky assets such as euro.

There are regular big events in the week. G7 meeting is held today, and ADP Non-farm Payrolls is released, too. European Central Bank releases Main Refinancing Rate on Thursday. Non-farm Payrolls is issued on Friday.

Gjallarhorn keeps the long position of futures, euro-FX. It is liquidated in September.

---------------------------
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[JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0430

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Steady Yen during Easter Holidays 2020 0411
cf. [JPY] Dollar's Rally against Yen 2020 0326
cf. [JPY] Falling Safe-Haven Asset Yen 2020 0320
cf. [JPY] Fear Easing and Yen Falling 2020 0205

The currency pair, USD/JPY which has moved in the channel, slips in the week. Japanese yen plunge in last month, but it retreats in the month.

Japanese yen has been resisted at price 105.3s against US dollar. And the price is tested as a resistance line, again. The currency pair keeps downward trend in one-hour chart, Thursday, it means strong yen and weak dollar.

The advance 1st quarter GDP was released -4.8 percent on Wednesday due to the pandemic. It shows the record-long US economic growth has been over. And Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC froze its benchmark interest rate band zero~0.25 percent, this day.

It led greenback fell. Though dollar falls and yen rises, it is anticipated yen to face the resistance line around 105.3x.

US unemployment claims is released on Thursday. It is forecasted 3.5 millions, which was 4.4 millions last week. It has hit more 6 millions, historical high.

As the fear of the pandemic covid-19 eases gradually, the market participants expect economy resumption.

The positive signals to financial market makes investors buy risky asset such as euro. And risk-off yen may fall against less risk-off dollar.

Gjallarhorn has a long position of futures, euro fx 2020-06 and it is under the loss.

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[JPY] Steady Yen during Easter Holidays 2020 0411

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Dollar's Rally against Yen 2020 0326
cf. [JPY] Falling Safe-Haven Asset Yen 2020 0320
cf. [JPY] Fear Easing and Yen Falling 2020 0205

The currency pair USD/JPY which has plunged succeeded to rebound forming V pattern and was in the correction in the daily chart.

It seems that the currency pair returns to the ordinary channel, and it implies the pair rises in the short-and-mid term and dollar rises.

US dollar rose against Japanese Yen forming double-bottoms pattern in late March, but it didn't rise sufficiently and sidles in the four-hour chart.

The rising currency pair means greenback rises against safety-haven yen.

US unemployment claims hit 6.6 millions on Thursday. It was expected 5 millions and 6.8 millions in previous week. It was bad news to dollar and yen gained.

The health care problem of COVID-19 affects finance market as well as real economy.

First, the pandemic coronavirus should be controlled. Then the market will return to the normal state. As well as watching the chart and news, we have to be interested in the news about the pandemic.

After the announcement of the Olympic games in Tokyo's postponement to next year, the number of CoViD-19 surges. Japanese worry the epidemic very much and it hurts Japanese economy.

The postponement of Olympic games itself has given the large loss to Tokyo.

It burdens Japanese economy and currency yen.

Easter holidays began from Friday. Almost banks in Europe and America are closed during the holidays, and the price movement is expected to be steady.

Gjallarhorn has a long position of futures, euro fx 2020-06.

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[JPY] Dollar's Rally against Yen 2020 0326

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Falling Safe-Haven Asset Yen 2020 0320
cf. [JPY] Fear Easing and Yen Falling 2020 0205

Japanese Yen has been regarded the safety haven. While the fear of COVID-19 outbreak has increased, JPY, Japanese Yen surged against other currencies including dollar.

But as Federal Reserve begins super Quantitative Easing program, JPY falls and greenback rises.

The daily chart of currency pair USD/JPY shows the explicit V pattern, rapid price recovery pattern and keeps the price rising. The price of the currency pair has turned over the previous support line. The currency pair made Double-bottoms pattern, price-turning-to-rise pattern in the four-hour chart.

The price-rising of the pair means dollar rising.

The price of the currency pair fell on Thursday, it could be regarded the correction after the continuous rising, not trend turning.

It is still valid to hold long bias about the pair, dollar rising.

Japanese central bank, Bank of Japan has decided to increase Quantitative Easing and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced the postponement of the Olympic Games 2020 to next year.

The Abe and IOC's decision may carry the burden on yen.

And Federal Reserve cut the Federal Funds Rate one percent point to near zero percent and began the Quantitative Easing Program simultaneously.

It is reasonable just to watch the market without position. But if the deal should be gone on, Dollar Long position is valid till the medicine or vaccine against the respiratory virus are developed.

Gjallarhorn bought a long position of futures, euro fx 2020-06. Gjallarhorn guesses euro would recover in this year after dollar's rally last year.

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[JPY] Falling Safe-Haven Asset Yen 2020 0320

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Fear Easing and Yen Falling 2020 0205
cf. [JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0130
cf. [JPY] Rising Expected after Correction 2020 0126

The pandemic breaks a dashboard of economy.

Currency pair USD/JPY rises completing price-rising pattern, double-bottoms pattern in the four-hour chart and V pattern in the daily chart respectively. And it surges strongly from under the bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart. We can guess the currency pair will keep upward.

The price plunged under the support line three weeks ago, and it is still under the line and faces it soon. The line which was support line at 109.11, may hinder the rising price. And there will be the correction.

If you buy long position of USD/JPY, you can get a chance when it rebound after the temporary correction.

Yen fell 0.42 percent or 0.45 yen against dollar on Wednesday.

The pandemic of coronavirus, CoVid-19 recalls global financial crisis and drags financial asset down. And it boosts US dollar. When the scare of recession, investors buy safe-haven asset such as greenback, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen as well as traditional gold.

But in this case, investors buy only US dollar and dollar price surges against most of another currencies. Therefore Dollar Index(USDX), dollar's value against the basket of six major currencies rose 1.46 percent to 100.976 recording high since March 2017 on Wednesday.

The economic blockade due to the respiratory virus outbreak makes people worry about dollar liquidity and buy greenback.

The economy news agency, Yonhap Infomax reported, the increasing dollar demand called liquidity deficit of greenback. And it reported, Goldman Sachs said, strong dollar reflected the greenback's position in the global economy and the finance system, and it raised dollar.

Japanese central bank, Bank of Japan decided to increase Quantitative Easing on Monday, but it is not helpful yet.

And Federal Reserve cut the Federal Funds Rate one percent point to near zero percent and began the Quantitative Easing Program simultaneously on Sunday, before the opening of Asian stock market and Forex market. The US economy daily Wall Street Journal reported, Fed has never cut the benchmark interest rate two times between regular FOMC meetings since 1994. It means Fed thinks the economic crisis due to the pandemic of CoVid-19 outbreak seriously.

It is reasonable just to watch the market without position. But if the deal should be gone on, Dollar Long position is valid till the medicine or vaccine against the respiratory virus are developed.

Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position of currency pair and futures items.
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[JPY] Fear Easing and Yen Falling 2020 0205

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0130
cf. [JPY] Rising Expected after Correction 2020 0126

The currency pair USD/JPY is supported by the mild upward trend line built since last August and it succeeded to recover on the support line. The currency pair rises since Monday and is 109.43 as of 03:00(GMT). Rising pair means strong US dollar and falling Japanese Yen.

Currency pair is in correction, one-hour chart and four-hour chart in Asian session, but it is expected to keep its upward trend, weak Yen.

Forex market is moved by external news, the respiratory corona virus outbreak from Wuhan, China. As the fear of pandemic is soothed, market participants stopped risk-off and began to buy risky asset. And Aussie and dollar rose, but yen and Swiss Franc fell.

As the news of Chinese government's financial measures is reported, risky currencies rebounded on Tuesday. On the other hand Yen fell.

As you watch the chart and read this report, you can find that Gjallarhorn usually uses four-hour chart. Some traders may think the report is available in short term, another does in long term. The others will do in the mid term.

Gjallarhorn keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. It is still under the loss.

Gjallarhorn produces the report of risky currencies with Long bias now because it has Long Position of EUR.

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[JPY] 코로나바이러스 영향과 주추세선 2020 0131

cf. [JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0130
cf. [JPY] Rising Expected after Correction 2020 0126
cf. [USDX] Before Facing the Resistance 2020 0119

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[JPY] Rising Yen 2020 0130

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [JPY] Rising Expected after Correction 2020 0126
cf. [USDX] Before Facing the Resistance 2020 0119

Safe-haven currency pair USD/JPY has fallen. The downward trend seems to be continued in short term but it may try to rebound on the upward support line about 108.2x.

The pair builds a trend-turning pattern gradually but it is expected to be failed. It means safe-haven Yen's value rises.

If the pair succeed to rise, it will reach 109.37, 120 exponential moving average in four-hour chart testing the surpass the 120 EMA as resistance line.

World wide fear from respiratory coronavirus makes investors' risk-off, buying dollar and more Japanese yen.

But yen doesn't surge as risky euro plunges against greenback. Currency pair EUR/USD fell 0.14 percent but USD/JPY just rose 0.03 percent on Wednesday.

The anxiety materials in the global economy has encouraged investors to buy yen as safety-haven asset. But this respiratory virus doesn't enough.

Japanese experts explain that the epidemic makes euro to plunge and falling euro restrains yen's rising. But yen may surge when the virus spreads more.

When virus fear is soothed, the risky assets will be gained and the price of yen down.

Meanwhile the Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged 1.50~1.75 percent on Wednesday as expected. Fed kept its stance.

Gjallarhorn keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. It is under the big loss.

Gjallarhorn produces the report of risky currencies with Long bias now because it has Long Position of EUR.


-------
You can join telegram channel t.me/gjallarhorn_report .

If this report was helpful to you, please support it. The amount of your support is up to you.

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[JPY] Rising Expected after Correction 2020 0126

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Edge by Two Trendlines 2020 0124
cf. [EUR] Rebounding after Correction  2020 0123
cf. [USDX] Before Facing the Resistance 2020 0119

Currency pair USD/JPY is expected to fall in short-term but will rebound breaking through 120 exponential moving average line.

The pair closed at 109.27 this week and it is near 120 EMA in weekly chart.

And the pair could be supported at 108.82, 120 EMA.

External materials out of currency market have shown the supporting Japanese Yen, JPY rather than greenback. But the trend line shows Japanese yen has slid gradually since last August.

The trade war and the military tension in last year and early this year lifted yen, but it did as a correction in currency pair USD/JPY.

Another external material, respiratory virus, corona virus from Wuhan, China threatens the financial markets as well as people around the world. It drops asset value of equities, commodities and risky currencies.

When virus fear is soothed, the risky assets will be gained and the price of yen down.

Gjallarhorn still keeps long position of Euro FX in CME. It is under the big loss.


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[JPY] 안전자산으로의 엔화 2019 0930

cf. [JPY] Hovering in Bollinger Bands 2019 0928


최근 들어 일본 엔화는 스위스 프랑화와 함께 미 달러보다도 더 안전한 자산으로 평가받고 있습니다. 그 동안 미국 달러화가 금과 함께 최고의 안전자산으로 여겨지던 것을 감안하면 상당한 변화라 할 수 있습니다.

미국의 트럼프 행정부 출범 이후 계속된 미국과 중국간의 무역갈등은 일본 엔화에 대한 수요를 불렀습니다.

미중 무역협상 전망이 부정적으로 나올 때마다 달러 가치는 하락하고 엔화 환율은 주요국 통화에 대해  상승했습니다.

반대로 글로벌 경제 전망이 조금이라도 희망적으로 보이면 달러 가치는 상승하고 엔화 환율은 하락한 게 올해 들어 외환시장에서 나타난 흐름입니다.

앞으로 R의 공포, 바로 경기침체 경고가 잇따르는 가운데 안전자산 수요가 늘어날 것으로 전망되는데, 무작정 엔화를 매입하는 것에 대해선 신중한 태도를 가질 필요가 있겠습니다.

엔화가 안전자산으로 평가받고 있더라도 일본이라는 국가 역시 여러 리스크를 갖고 있기 때문입니다.

잃어버린 20년이라는 말에서 알 수 있듯이, 디플레이션은 일본의 고질적인 문제입니다. 지난 1985년 플라자 합의 이후 계속된 엔화 평가절상과 아울러 발생한 디플레이션은 지금까지도 일본 경제 성장에서 걸림돌로 작용하고 있습니다.

안전자산 선호 흐름에 따라 엔화에 대한 수요가 늘고, 엔화 가치 역시 상승하는 것은, 반대로 일본제품 수출에 불리하게 적용하는데 수출 가격이 상승하기 때문입니다. 같은 품질이라면 조금 더 저렴한 제품에 손이 가는 건 자연스러운 경제활동입니다.

미중 무역갈등처럼 올 하반기부터 시작된 한일 갈등도 일본 경제에 악영향을 미치고 있습니다. 특히 관광산업과 반도체 소재산업은 한일 갈등의 직접적인 타격을 받고 있는 형편입니다.

주요 통화쌍 가운데 하나인 달러 엔은 주간 차트를 기준으로 지난 2016년이래 볼린저 밴드 안에서 오르내리고 있습니다.

앞으로도 달러 엔 통화쌍은 주간 차트와 일간 차트에서는 볼린저 밴드 안에서 움직일 것으로 보입니다. 거래시 어떤 시간대 차트를 주거래 차트로 사용하느냐에 따라 매수와 매도 전략을 선택적으로 사용할 필요가 있겠습니다.








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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, JPY, yen, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 엔화

[JPY] Hovering in Bollinger Bands 2019 0928

USD/JPY four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

Japanese Yen(JPY) is evaluated as Safe-haven asset with Swiss Franc, CHF JPY than U.S. dollar these days. It is considerable change because greenback was one-top safe-haven asset before.

Since Trump administration, U.S.-China Trade Conflict has called Japanese Yen. When the talks between top two economies seems gloomy, Yen surges against  other currencies including dollar. If the view on global economy is optimistic, yen retreats.

Yen has the seat of safe-haven but Japan has its own risk like others, too.

Deflation in Japan economy is still problem. More twenty-years long deflation has grabbed Japanese economy growth.

And growing yen price hinders export. It's natural that consumers loves cheaper goods in same quality.

Korea-Japan conflict like U.S.-Sino's hinders Japan industries, too. Media reports Tourism and materials industry are affected by the conflict, directly.

One of the major currencies, USD/JPY has moved up and down in Bollinger Bands, since 2016 in which the pair rose along upper band of Bollinger Bands in weekly chart. It seems to hover in the band, in daily chart and weekly chart.






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Gjallarhorn, Heimdallr, JPY, yen, 걀라호른, 헤임달, 엔화