[EUR] The Mixed Euro After CPI 2023 0215

  

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

This report is not responsible for the investors' trading.

Gjallarhorn has long positions in Forex market and they are in loss.

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The currency pair EUR/USD fluctuates since the last week.

The pair tries to exceed the 120 exponential moving average in the one-hour and the four-hour chart respectively, but it failed.

The euro retreated against the dollar but was supported on 1.0659. And the price 1.0788 restrains the rise of the euro.

It hovers in the Bollinger Bands in the short term but the price has risen since last September moderately.

The euro still on the upward trend line though it is in correction in the weekly chart.

 It is still valid to keep the bullish bias to euro, Gjallarhorn thinks.

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The U.S. CPI, Consumer Price Index in January rose 6.4 percent year-on-year. It was lowered than the previous CPI. It moderated for seven months it rose higher than the market expectation 6.2 percent though. The moderate CPI but higher than the expectation didn't ease the market's concern about the Fed's tightening policy.

The core CPI which excluded the food prices and the energy prices rose 5.6 percent, which was lowered than that in December but higher than the expectation, 5.5 percent.

The released CPI higher than expectation raised the expected Fed's benchmark rate to 5.5 percent according to the CME's FedWatch. The market predicted it to be frozen after reach to 5.25 percent.

The CPI put the dollar in the mixed state.

The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against its six peers dropped to 103.219 on Tuesday. Though the CPI exceeded the market expectation, the Dollar Index retreated. Because the Forex market watched the moderated CPI. It was low 0.1 percent point than the index released in January.

The members of Fed still showed their hawkish stance.

Thomas I. Barkin, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond spoke the inflation might be slow than the expectation. He said the the inflation indices was in the expectation.

Patrick T. Harker, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia spoke the benchmark rate should be hiked by 25bp to five percent more at the address.

John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York anticipated the more interest-rate hike, Reuters and Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.

He has predicted the benchmark interest rate 5.5 percent in the year and the rate fall in the next year.

The FOMC has hiked the benchmark rate to 4.75 percent.

One market expert forecasts the bullish greenback and the U.S. inflation.

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[EUR] The Euro Preparing the Upward Trend 2022 1213

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has no position in Forex market and just watch the market now.

The currency pair EUR/USD fluctuates in the plain Bollinger Bands since December. The currency pair has raised the bottoms below the parity and sidles before the book-closing month.

But the pair keeps the bullish trend and it seems to be valid to keep the bullish bias on the euro.

The U.S. consumer price index, CPI is released and the FOMC decides the benchmark interest rate in this week. The Europe benchmark rate is shown in the week and the currency-policy meeting by the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank, respectively is hold, too.

The planned economy events made the market fluctuates quietly.

But the Japanese Yen dropped against the U.S. dollar as the U.S. bond yield rebounded.

The market participants expect the FOMC will hike the rate big-step not giant-step in the week as Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair hinted the rate-hike pace control. The CME Fedwatch anticipates the benchmark rate is hiked 50bp with 74.5-percent possibility.

It is reported, the market watches the final goal of the rate not how much hike because the final goal hints how long the tightening policy is effective.

The CPI in November released on Tuesday gained the interest. It may give the clues of the Fed's tightening policy. The market expects the CPI in November may rise 0.2 percent on the previous month and 7.3 percent on the last year.

Janet Yellen, the Secretary of the Treasury anticipated the U.S. inflation would be ease in the next year at the interview of the U.S. broadcasting.

But the ECB, European Central Bank and the BOE, Bank of England would be still hawkish at the meeting, the Yonhap Infomax reported on Tuesday. It reported, the market expected the big step or the giant step of the ECB and the big step of the BOE.

It is reported, the rate will be hiked 125bp and 150bp by the ECB and the BOE, respectively in the next year. The Fed is expected to hike 60 bp.

The senior analyst, Joe Ferry at Forex.com watched the weak dollar showed the market prospected the eased inflation. He said, the market listened Jerome Powell's comment of rate-hike pace control and it was reflected on the prices.

The time goes to end of the year. The traders begin to close the book and prepare the next year. We need to watch the market as book-closing view.

-----

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[EUR] Euro in the Correction 2022 1121

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

cf. [EUR] Fluctuating EURO 2022 1115

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has no position in Forex market and just watch the market now.

The rising currency pair EUR/USD retreated as the week began. 

It fell to near the parity, supporting line. It seems that the euro recover the price above 1.0290 though the EUR/USD step down below the parity in the short term.

The pair may try to exceed 1.038x. It can keep the bullish trend if it succeeds. But the dollar gains if not.

Gjallarhorn thinks euro's fall might be restrained above 1.0090 while the dollar keeps the upward trend.

The euro broke through the 20 moving average at once and reached the upper band of the Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart.

The euro is in correction and retreats below the upper band. But we need to look the momentum which broke through the 20 moving average.

The dollar is still bullish. But its power isn't strong as it before. The euro saves the energy of surging.

The Dollar Index tracking the dollar against its six peers rose 0.61 percent for a week to 106.943 last week.

 Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank supported the interest hike of the euro but it less effected. She spoke the inflation in Eurozone was high at a Europe banks meeting. But the euro wasn't supported sufficiently, last week.

The dollar was supported by the hawkish Fed members.

Susan M. Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston said the giant step is on the table in the FOMC meeting in December.

 James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis has led the bullish dollar saying the U.S. benchmark interest rate should be kept on from five to seven percent.

 Neel Kashkari, president of Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis has spoken the Fed should hike the interest rate till the inflation definitely cease. He said the Fed's goal is to control the inflation, too.

The hawkish member of the Fed, Christoper Waller had spoken the Fed might hike 50 bp on December meeting or later supporting the hawkish stance at the UBS AG Conference in Sydney, Australia. He said the Fed's rate-hike weren't completed yet though the inflation pressure was eased somewhat.

He said, the interest rate would be kept high till the inflation reached the goal, 2 percent.

The FOMC meeting minutes is released on Wednesday. The market participants expect the Fed will lead the greenback this week.

But the dollar didn't rallied last week, as some participants analyse the inflation risk in the United States reached the peak. They expect the Fed might ease the tightening tension somewhat.

The PPI in October rose 0.2 percent below the expectation 0.4 percent. The CPI has risen seven percent. These releases supported the possibility of the Fed's tightening pace slowing.

But the U.S. bond yield was still bullish and supported the dollar.

The Forex watchers anticipate the bullish dollar due to the hawkish Fed members' stance.

-----

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[EUR] Fluctuating EURO 2022 1115

cf. [EUR] The Pace Control of the Rate-hike 2022 1106

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has no position in Forex market and just watch the market now.

The surged euro last week fluctuates in the Bollinger Bands.

The currency pair EUR/USD jumped 4 bigs late week and sidles in the narrow channel as the week begins.

The pair broke through the 20 moving average at once and tries to reach the upper band of the Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart.

The strong upward-moment may support the euro and it will not retreat below the parity.

The investors are able to get the long bias for the euro in the mid term. The euro is able to be bought while its correction.

But it doesn't mean the trend shift, yet. The inflation risk still presses the euro and the Fed still raises the benchmark interest rate. The investors can think the trend shift but aren't recommended to buy the euro.

The surged euro was in the correction Monday.

As the Fed tightened, the greenback recovered the bullish trend. The Fed warned the market against going too far and the U.S. bond yield rebounded. They supported the dollar.

The Dollar Index tracking the dollar against the six peers basket rose 0.43 percent to 106.832.

The hawkish member of the Fed, Christoper Waller spoke the Fed might hike 50 bp on December meeting or later supporting the hawkish stance at the UBS AG Conference in Sydney, Australia. He said the Fed's rate-hike weren't completed yet though the inflation pressure was eased somewhat.

He said, the interest rate would be kept high till the inflation reached the goal, 2 percent.

Waller's comment supported the bond yield and the dollar. The yield of the 10-y Treasury Note rose 7bp to 3.89 percent for a while.

But Lael Brainard, the vice chair of the Fed spoke, the pace of interest-rate hike needed to be eased. The market experts thought, the Fed wouldn't stop the rate hike but would move away from the pace of four consecutive 75 basis points hikes.

The war in Ukraine affects the euro. The possibility of the peace agreement supports the euro, too. 

A research header at Monex diagnosed, the traders bought the dollar due to the euro's surge and Fed members' hawkish statement. He added, the currency pair EUR/USD would be still bearish though ECB officials supported the euro's interest rate.

The CME FedWatch anticipate the Fed's rate-hike 50bp in December as 85.4 percent probability. It means that the market expects the big step not the giant step.

Meanwhile Jerome Powell, the chair of the Fed supported the additional rate-hike and it was premature to discuss the rate-hike pause while the press conference after the FOMC.

-----

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[EUR] The Pace Control of the Rate-hike 2022 1106

The EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has no position in CME and just watch the market now.

The currency pair EUR/USD formed the Head-and-Shoulders pattern and was supported on around 0.9737. After forming the pattern, the currency pair rebounded and reached the upper band of the Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart.

It is confirmed that the euro is supported on some 0.97s though it fluctuated under the parity.

The main trend is still bearish, the weekly chart of the euro hints the trend-shift though.

The EUR/USD weekly chart shows euro has become to rise and tried to shift the bullish trend.

It isn't available to comment the bullish but the euro may not sink more.

Gjallarhorn think the investors need to watch the weekly chart, too. The 20 moving average is explicit downward and the EUR/USD is still below the moving average, but it is expected euro's rise in some weeks. 

The European Central Bank hiked the benchmark interest rate, the Main Refinancing Rate on October 27. It jumped 75bp to 2.00 percent.

The Dollar Index which tracks the greenback against its six peers basket rose 0.1 percent this week while its retreat 2.03 percent to 110.769 Friday.

The Dollar Index used to retreat to 110.688.

The Non-Farm Payrolls in October increased 261 thousands better than experts' expectation 205 thousand increase. It called the risk-on sentiment dropping the greenback. And the currency pair EUR/USD rose 2.24 percent to 0.99610.

The unemployment rate in October released on Friday was 3.7 percent worse than the previous 3.5 percent and the expectation 3.5 percent.

The Fed members have showed the hawkish stance. Jerome Powell, Fed Chair has confirmed the rate hike, and Christopher Waller, the Fed member has supported the significant hike in the benchmark interest rate.

Though the hawkish stance, it was in the market's expectation, and it didn't beat the Forex market.

The Fed member Neel Tushar Kashkari anticipated the benchmark interest rate would be hiked to 4.9 percent more. And he spoke the job market was strong. He is one of the hawkish members in Fed.

The Federal Reserve is still expected to keep the hike of the Federal Funds Rate, but some board members signal that the pace of the quantitative tightening is controlled,

Thomas Barkin, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond spoke the Fed shifted the step while the interview with the U.S. CNBC. He said, the Fed would brake sometimes while the benchmark-rate hike in the another step.

Barkin said the Fed's policy rate, which is currently between 3.75 percent and 4.00 percent, could eventually reach more than 5 percent.

Due to the risk-on, the euro rebounded on Friday. But the European Central Bank president, Chiristine Lagarde spoke the ECB wouldn't copy the Fed's actions though the ECB's watch to the Fed. Lagarde's comments devaluated the euro.

The U.S. daily New York Times reported the U.S. yield gave the clues of the Fed's interest-rate goal on Wednesday. The U.S. bond market provide the explicit signals of the interest rate and the economy outlook by the yield. Ahead of the Fed's benchmark rate hike, the yield in the bond market began to rise.

The 2-year bond yield recorded 4.6301 percent on Wednesday. The 10-yr Treasury Note yield already rose to some 1.5 percent last December.

And the current bond yield expects the recession.

Meanwhile Jerome Powell, the chair of the Fed supported the additional rate-hike and it was premature to discuss the rate-hike pause while the press conference after the FOMC.

-----

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[EUR] Rebounding euro in the short term 2022 1025

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has no position in CME and just watch the market now.

The currency pair EUR/USD has edged high after the head-and-shoulders pattern. It has exceeded the downward trend line, but it's hasty to guess the trend shift of the pair. The EUR/USD is still below the parity, and fluctuate the plain 120 exponential moving average.

And we need to watch the weekly chart, too. The price of the pair has risen. The 20 moving average is explicit downward and the EUR/USD is still below the moving average, but it is expected euro's rise in some weeks. It may try to step up 1.0098, too.

The currency pair seems to keep the bearish in mid-term. It could rebound after supporting on late 0.96 in months.

The currency pair EUR/USD rose 0.13 percent to 0.9874 in New York session, Monday.

The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against the six peers edged up 0.12 percent to 112.001.

The market expect the big step in December after the giant step in November. The market participants anticipated the 75bp hike of the benchmark rate in December, too, but they expect the 50bp hike in the last FOMC meeting in the year.

The falling EUR/USD succeeded to rebound at the end of the New York session, Monday. The Euro zone economy indices weren't good, though. The German Flash Manufacturing PMI released on Monday was 45.7 worse than the expectation 46.9 and the previous 47.8. The German Flash Services PMI was 44.9 worse than the expectation 45.0 and the previous 45.0.

The European Central Bank decide the benchmark interest rate, the Main Refinancing Rate on Thursday. It is expected the ECB raise 75bp and the rate is hiked to 2.00 percent.

The Fed members have showed the hawkish stance. Jerome Powell, Fed Chair has confirmed the rate hike, and Christopher Waller, the Fed member has supported the significant hike in the benchmark interest rate.

-----

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[EUR] Dead Cat Bounce? 2022 0914

 

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has no position in CME and just watch the market now.

The currency pair EUR/USD surged for a long time. It rose more one big last night.

The pair has formed the head-and-shoulders pattern which shows the bearish market in the four-hour chart. It rebounded after the sidling, and it reached the 120 exponential moving average moving along the upper band of the Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart.

The euro fell to 0.96s and it was supported on the price band. The downward trend was completed as the euro was supported the 0.96s in the short term. It sank below the support band for a moment after the risen release of CPI but it succeeded to recover the price.

The euro has risen to the 20 moving average, and it has both possibility of rise and fall in the daily chart.

But the main trend is still bearish. The weekly chart and the monthly chart still show the explicit downward trend of the EUR/USD and the bullish greenback.

Though the euro rises against the dollar, it may retreat below the parity.

It is still available to keep the short bias to the euro and buy the dollar.

As the U.S. CPI showed the unchanged inflation pressure, the dollar rose. But it lost the momentum against the major peers shortly. The risk of the economy indices was already reflected and the risk-on sentiment dropped the greenback, the analysts thought.

And the Dollar Index tracking the dollar against the currency basket of the six peers fell 0.70 percent to 112.491.

The U.S. CPI in September was 8.2-percent rise year-on-year. It is higher than the expectation 8.1 percent rise. The core CPI was 6.6 percent, higher than the expectation, too.

The CPI stimulated the investor's concern about the hawkish Fed stance. The FOMC meeting minutes released the prior day showed the hawkish members' opinion.

But the risk-averse sentiment was already reflected before the release of the meeting minutes and the CPI, some experts analysed, too. The Treasury Note yield just rose 6 bp to 3.96 percent, the media reported.

The euro rose against the dollar as the risk-on sentiment was recovered. But it has moved below the parity. It was reported, the hawkish ECB stance doesn't overwhelm the U.S. Fed's.

The market experts expect the Fed's continuous giant step in November, too. Shima Shah, strategist at Principal Asset Management said, there was no one in the market who believed the Fed would hike the benchmark interest rate below 75 bp after the CPI. He added, the benchmark rate might be hiked 75 bp in December, too.

The Fed members have showed the hawkish stance. Jerome Powell, Fed Chair has confirmed the rate hike, and Christopher Waller, the Fed member has supported the significant hike in the benchmark interest rate.

-----

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Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[EUR] The Expected Giant Step after the Non-farm Payrolls 2022 0806

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has a short position of the euro in CME, now.

The currency pair EUR/USD plunged as the U.S. Non-farm payrolls was released on Friday. It still fluctuates in a channel though.

The pair has moved up and down in the sidling Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart.

The sidling currency pair seems to accumulate the momentum, upward or downward.

The euro has raised its bottom gradually above the parity, 1.00 in the weekly chart. But the trend is bearish explicitly.

The dollar surged as the U.S. Non-farm payrolls rose more than doubling market expectation on Friday. The record better than the expectation supported the market to think of the Fed's tightening policies. The U.S. Treasury Yield soared this day, too.  

The Non-farm payrolls increased 528 thousands in July, which is double the market expectation, 258 thousand increasing.

The unemployment rate in July was 3.5 percent. It is below the market expectation, 3.6 percent.

Due to the records better than the expectation, the Dollar Index which tracks the greenback against the six peers rose 0.81 percent to 106.589. It rose 0.66 percent for a week.

The market expects the Fed's giant step in September, again. The probability of the giants step is evaluated 64.5 percent by the market according to the Fed Watch at Chicago Mercantile Exchange. 

As the greenback surged, the euro plunged against the dollar. Because the European Central Bank, ECB doesn't seem to hike the benchmark rate as the Fed did. The euro sank though the good German economy record.

The Federal Reserve has hiked the Federal Funds Rate 75bp to 2.5 percent in the previous month. It was the giant step as the markets expected. The FOMC hiked the benchmark rate 75bp twice in a row.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[EUR] Giant Step and 2022 0728

cf. [EUR] The Restricted Rise 2022 0719

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has a short position of the euro in CME, now.

The currency pair EUR/USD fluctuated in a channel plunged ahead of the FOMC meeting and rebounded after the FOMC meeting. 

The pair returned into the channel. It seems that the pair tries to exceed the channel ceilling and 120 exponential moving average in the four-hour chart.

But it's unlikely the euro break through the 120 EMA and makes a upward trend, yet. It may not exceed 1.0350 reinforcing the bearish trend though it exceeds the channel and the 120 EMA in the four-hour chart.

The currency pair seems to continue the fluctuation between 1.0130 and 1.0265 for a while.

The Federal Reserve hiked the Federal Funds Rate 75bp to 2.5 percent. It was the giant step as the markets expected. The FOMC hiked the benchmark rate 75bp twice in a row, the dollar fell though. The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against the six peers basket dropped 82bp to 106.373.

The rate hike was in the markets' expectation, the dollar lost the upward momentum though the recession risk.

The surging inflation world wide has pressed the central bank hike their benchmark interest rate. The European Central Bank, ECB has gotten the big step, too.

The U.S. CPI in June rose 9.1 percent from June last year. It was 8.6 percent in May.

It is reasonable to think the Fed raises the FFR in September, too.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[EUR] The Restricted Rise 2022 0719

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Rebounding Euro 2022 0621

cf. [EUR] Giant Step and Retreating Dollar 2022 0617

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position in CME, now.

The currency pair EUR/USD plunged to the historical parity last week. It even sank below 1.0 for a while.

The EUR/USD rebounded after the touch 1.0 and it is 1.01xx in the early week.

The rebounding euro is expected to rise to the 120 exponential moving average 1.025x in the four-hour chart or 1.029x, 20 moving average in the daily chart at least.

But the bias on the euro is short. The benchmark hike on the dollar is anticipated and it support the dollar's rally.

The European Central Bank, ECB is expected to hike the benchmark rate in the week, too. The traders guess the basic step, 0.25 percent. It isn't powerful than dollar's. And the global stagflation risk calls the risk-averse sentiment.

After the euro's parity to the dollar last week, the euro rebounded. It is hard to think the euro plunges below  1.0 against the greenback at once and the traders can guess the euro rise again on the parity.

The market participants guessed the Fed's jumbo step, 1.0 percent rate hike but they expect the 75 basis point hike, the giant step again. It supported the risk-on sentiment and helped the euro.

The dollar index tracking the greenback against the currencies' basket dropped 56bp to 107.421.

The hawkish Fed member, Christopher J. Waller has supported the benchmark interest rate hike, but he doesn't agree the jumbo step, 100bp hike.

Another hawkish member, James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hinted he supported 75bp hike while the interview with Japanese economy daily, Nihon Keizai Shinbun. He said, the current pace of the interest rate hike was valid.

The customer price index in June released last Wednesday rose 9.1 percent and it made the traders expect 100bp hike.

The Federal Reserve holds the FOMC next Tuesday and Wednesday. It is expected the FOMC will hike the Federal Fund Rate and release the monetary policy.

The speculative dealers still bet on the strong dollar. The long positions on the greenback hit high in the seven weeks.

An expert on the bond said, the Fed seemed to support 75bp than 100bp.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[EUR] Rebounding Euro 2022 0621

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 cf. [EUR] Giant Step and Retreating Dollar 2022 0617

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has a short positions of the Euro in CME.

The sliding currency pair EUR/USD rebounded in mid May and fluctuated in the Bollinger Bands in the daily chart. The pair has rebounded on the bottom band and rises toward the middle band. And the traders may expect the pair exceeds the middle band and reaches 1.0775, prior peak and 1.084x, the upper band in the daily chart.

The euro attempts to build the double-bottoms pattern in the weekly chart, it failed to exceed the middle band at once though. The credibility of the pattern isn't high, yet.

The currency pair doesn't exceed the 120 exponential moving average, 1.05748 in the four-hour chart, yet. It doesn't seem to exceed 120 ema soon. The 120 ema act as a resistance line for a while.

It rises in the early Europe session. The euro moves along the upper band in the one-hour chart, the euro may retreat on 120 ema in the four-hour chart though.

The euro rose in the early Europe session, drawing support from the European Central Bank's plans to raise interest rates to contain inflation.

The euro was supported after ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said the ECB will raise interest rates by 25 bp at its July meeting.

After the FOMC meeting the dollar is in the correction. The Federal Reserve hiked the Federal Funds Rate 0.75 percent, the giant step, but the dollar didn't soar and is in the correction.

Though the giant step, the Fed chair Jerome Powell spoke the Fed tried to controll the inflation under the 2 percent at a conference, last Friday.

He has informed the big step, 50bp hike or the giant step, 75bp hike next FOMC meeting in July.

As well as the Federal Reserve, Swiss National Bank and Bank of England hiked their benchmark rate, too. BOE raised the rate though the recession risk.

The American economy journal Wall Street Journal reported the soft-landing is just the illusion though the central banks action last Saturday.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[EUR] Giant Step and Retreating Dollar 2022 0617

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has a short positions of the Euro in CME.

The currency pair EUR/USD succeeded to rebound on 1.0357, prior support band. The pair exceeded 20 moving average in the one-hour chart and the four-hour chart with the long candle. It also rose from the bottom band of the Bollinger Bands in the daily chart.

But the explicit signals aren't found yet. The bearish trend of the currency pair seems to be still valid. The Federal Reserve members are hawkish and the Fed raised the Federal Funds Rate 75bp on Wednesday. Before the FOMC meeting, the market anticipated the giant step, 75bp hike due to the surged CPI, 8.6 percent.

But the pair rose though the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate hike. The rate hike satisfied the market expectation and the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England hiked their benchmark rate following Fed's action. It supported the euro, and the dollar retreated on Thursday.

And the U.S. economy gauges released on Thursday indicated the recession possibility. It aggravated the greenback. The new Unemployment Claims was 229 thousands worse than expectation.

The Fed had hiked the Federal Funds Rate 0.75 bp, giant step to 1.50~1.75 percent after FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which is the first giant step since November 1994. Jerome Powell, the Fed chair hinted the benchmark rate might be hiked 50~75bp.

The markets have expected the big step, 50bp hike and Jerome Powell used to supported the big step, 50bp hike. But the CPI released in last week rose recording high in forty years.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

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[EUR] Bullish or Bearish Trend? 2022 0528

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

cf. [EUR] EURO Rally 2022 0525

cf. [EUR] The Technical Rebound of Euro 2022 0522

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has a short position recording the loss in CME.

The currency pair EUR/USD held its upward momentum in the daily chart and the weekly chart.

The pair is found it rose two weeks continuously in the weekly chart. It rebounded on 1.0359x, the support line since 2017. The price of the pair exceeded the 20 moving average at once and reached the upper band of the Bollinger Bands in the daily chart. Its shape of following the upper band implies the more rising. 

But it didn't reach the 20 moving average, yet. It's not certain that the euro has the sufficient momentum enough to break through the 20 moving average.

And the euro began to control its power in hour-size charts.

The pair still moves in the channel made by the upper band and the middle band, the middle band has begun to ease the slope in the hours chart.

The bullish trend isn't confirmed yet.

The Dollar Index tracking the greenback dropped 0.15 percent to 101.654 in the week.

The Core PCE released on Friday was satisfied the markets' expectation. It was 4.9 percent, which the market expected, and the price of EUR/USD moved in the Bollinger Bands in the one-hour chart.

The hawkish Fed in the markets' expectation restrains the strong greenback. As the market participants expected, the FOMC meeting minutes released in the week supported the big-step hike during two meetings of FOMC. The Fed has raised the benchmark rate to 0.75~1.0 percent.

The euro rose against the dollar, but the increase of the price was restrained because the expectation of the European Central Bank's hawkish action was already included in the price.

The ECB president Christine Lagarde has commented, the net-purchase of the Asset Purchase Program will be finished in the early 3rd quarter and she expect the minus deposit interest rate returns to the positive rate in the blog. The benchmark rate hike to the positive implies the 50 basis-point hike.

Some strategists think the greenback rally has passed the peak. 

The strategists at Comertz Bank think the possibility of the rate hike by Lagarde in July is very high. They said, the rate of the euro would be raised more and it supported the euro.

But Christian Lindner, German finance minister has spoken, the bearish euro raised the inflation and press the rate hike by ECB though the recession risk.

Meanwhile, some Forex strategists expect the currency pair EUR/USD may fall to 1.02s in a quarter.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail. 

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[EUR] The Greenback in Correction 2022 0517

 

cf. [EUR] Soaring Greenback 2022 0514

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has no position  in CME and just watches the market.

The currency pair EUR/USD edges high since Friday. The pair touched the 120 exponential moving average and tries to break through it in the one-hour chart on Tuesday(GMT).

The pair also exceeded 20 moving average in the four-hour chart since last Friday.

The EUR/USD moves upward gradually exceeding 20MA, it seems to reach the 120 exponential moving average, around 1.053x in the four-hour chart. It can rise to 1.052x, bottom of the price-mixed zone.

It may retreat after the first touch of the meaningful price bands. If the trend turns to upward, it will be succeeded in the second touch or more attempts.

Though its rebounding, the bias to the euro is still short, Gjallarhorn thinks.

After FOMC meeting in the early month, the Fed Chair, Jerome Powell spoke that there wouldn't be a giant step, 0.75 percent hike of the benchmark rate. He acknowledged the soft landing of a low inflation and high growth is very difficult at a radio broadcasting interview on last Friday. He spoke he believed, the U.S. economy would avoid the recession.

But some Fed members claim the giant step against the inflation.

The Fed will use the tightening policies against the inflation, it concerns the investors about the recession.

The experts on Forex still predict the strong dollar.

The Forex analysts on ING spoke, if the risk-averse sentiment was on and the equity markets were bearish, the Dollar Index might exceed over 105.

Some Forex stragests expect the currecy pair EUR/USD may fall to 1.02s in a quarter.

Meanwhile an expert in an asset management has forecasted the parity of the euro and the dollar in a half year.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail. 

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[EUR] The Reverse-V pattern and the Euro 2022 0406

 

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Rounded Euro still under the Short Bias 2022 0319

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

Gjallarhorn has the short position of euro in the loss, CME now.

As April began, the dollar began to gain ground.

The one of the major currency pair, EUR/USD plunges after touching 1.1183 on March 31. The surged euro fells sharply against the dollar making a sharp peak. It formed the reverse-V pattern in the four-hour chart. 

The pattern succeeded and the euro fell below the fluctuated zone, it may rebound or continue its bearish trend.

But the direction of 20 Moving Average in the four-hour chart support the additional decrease of the euro. And the price of the currency pair lowered the peaks moving in the channel between the 20-moving average and the bottom band in the weekly chart. It support the bearish trend of the euro.

The more hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the war by Russia in Ukraine supported the strong dollar.

Lael Brainard, the Fed vice-chair nominee said, the reduction of the inflation is the Fed's priority and her statement boosted the U.S. treasury yield.

She said, the FOMC would do Quantitative Tightening by the continuous rate-hike and the tightened balance sheet, May in the on-line speech.

And the Dollar Index which tracks the dollar against the currency basket of six peers rose 0.49 percent to 99.490 on Tuesday. It touched 99.523 recording high since May 2020, for a while.

The market participants await the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday(GMT). They try to get the clues to the interest-rate hike. The European Central Bank releases its meeting minutes on April 7.

The investors expect the big-step hike as the Fed yield futures anticipate 80 percent of the 0.5-percent rate hike.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

You can ask by messenger and e-mail. 

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[EUR] Putin’s Attack on Ukraine 2022 0224

cf. [EUR] The Ukraine Tension and the Falling EURO 2022 0220

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

 

Gjallarhorn has the short positions on Euro recording the loss.

 

Vladimir Putin has declared the special military operation in Donbas, eastern Ukraine.

 

The news medias reported the Russia would attack on Donbas but Putin denied the occupation.

 

Putin approved the operation while UN Security Council meeting, and he commanded the arrangement of so-called the peacekeeping forces by Russia troops on Donbas on Tuesday.

 

As the report of Putin’s command is released in the early morning Thursday (GMT), the Dollar Index began to surge. The Dollar Index rose 0.12 percent to 96.206 on Wednesday.

 

The euro sank to a three-week low to the safe-haven dollar on Thursday while riskier commodity-linked currencies like the Australian dollar weakened amid intensifying fears that a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent.

------------------------------------------

 

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

 

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

 

You can ask by messenger and e-mail.

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[EUR] Bearish Bias on EUR 2022 0213

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

 

cf. [EUR] Temporary Rebounding of EURO 2022 0202

cf. [EUR] Falling EURO 2022 0126

cf. [EUR] Hawkish Fed and the Bullish Dollar 2022 0119

 

The reports from Gjallarhorn are produced by a trader, not by an analyst. The reports are provided to the investors showing the trader's view on the market.

 

Gjallarhorn has the short positions on Euro recording the loss.

 

The currency pair EUR/USD which has fluctuated in two long-term trend lines retreated around the 20 moving average in the weekly chart last week. The pair reached the 20 MA two weeks ago, and gave the clue of rebound of the euro.

 

The euro rose to the 120 exponential moving average in the daily chart, it failed to exceed the line and the downward trend line though. It sank to the 20 moving average again in the daily chart.

 

The currency pair slid along the bottom band of Bollinger Bands in the four-hour chart. It makes the investors to think the price continue to retreat in the short-and-midterm.

 

Gjallarhorn thinks the price can fall to 1.1283s, the price before the ECB’s press conference in the month and to the mixed price band.

 

It is also able to sink 1.1131 recording low in the quarter.

 

The investors can think the upward trend line supported the falling price of euro but it is tested as the support line again. It doesn’t seem the trend line to support the euro this time.

 

The Dollar Index tracking the greenback against the currency basket of the six peers rose 0.41 percent to 96.059. It edged higher 0.41 percent last week.

 

The euro plunged on last Friday as the ECB president Christine Lagarde supported the ECB’s dovish stance.

 

The ECB president Christine Lagarde warned if the ECB rushed to tighten the monetary policy, it could choke the economy recovery.

 

She added all action should be done step by step.

 

The market still expects that the ECB will hike the rate 10 bp till June and 50 bp till this year.

 

The market participants are convinced the Federal Reserve will hike the benchmark rate in March. The members of FOMC show their hawkish stance explicitly.

 

The FOMC member and the St. Louis Federal Reserve president, James Bullard emphasized he preferred 10 bp rate hike till July. He also spoke the Fed should respond to the inflation recorded high in 40 years.

 

The geopolitical risk in Ukraine recalled the risk-averse sentiment. The conflict risk between the United States and Russia in Ukraine boosted the dollar as well as the prices of commodities.

 

The U.S. authorities warned their citizens to leave Ukraine in 48 hours and they spoke Russia would invade Ukraine on Wednesday, Feb. 16.

 

Though Russia President Putin’s denial, the tension of the conflict rises.

 

The summit between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin by phone was held on February 12, they didn’t get the meaningful result though.

------------------------------------------

Gjallahorn produces the reports by the trader. And the reports reflect the trader's view.

 

Gjallarhorn does not provide any signals, but tries for traders to get the insight into the market.

 

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[USDX] Before Facing the Resistance 2020 0119

USDX, four-hour chart, source:FXStreet.com

cf. [EUR] Euro to Rise Hoping Upward Trend  2020 0116
cf. [GBP] Short-term Downward Trend 2020 0113
cf. [USDX] Correction After Rising 2020 0111
cf. [EUR] Euro expected to Though Iranian Attack  2020 0109
cf. Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise  2019 1230


Dollar Index has broken through the downward trend line in four-hour chart, it was 97.62 on weekend.

To keep its upward trend, USDX should  exceed the previous peak 97.7x at first. Greenback's value against the basket of major six currencies, dollar index failed break through 97.8x since last December.

Dollar index kept rising due to the good economy records in the last week. Retail Sales and Housing index released last week showed US economy still kept soft landing. And economy top two, the United States and China signed the trade talks on last Wednesday. They supported greenback.

Euro zone economy begins to recover but the US's is better.

After the signing of US-Sino trade talks, market participants concern the next round, trade-tariff war between US and EU. An EU economy official criticized the first-tier signing between the US and China and made reference to retaliate if the US imposes the tariffs on European products. The anticipated trade tension made euro to fall 0.4 percent.

It would make dollar up and USDX rises exceeding 97.75.

Global economy was expected to support risky asset such as euro and pound. But still uncertain circumstance makes investors to hesitate their action.

Gjallarhorn keeps long position of euro in CME. The profitable position turned into a loss.

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[USDX] Correction After Rising 2020 0111

Dollar Index, four-hour chart, source:FXstreet.com

cf. [EUR] Euro expected to Though Iranian Attack  2020 0109
cf. [EUR] U.S. Attack and Euro's Hope to Rising  2020 0106
cf. Expecting Euro and Sterling to Rise  2019 1230

Dollar Index or USDX, dollar's price against the basket of major six currencies lowers its peaks and is expected to drop in next week. USDX finished the week with 97.37 and is forecasted retreat to 96.5x, previous bottom.

Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday was worse than expected and previous record, and dollar index fell 0.06 percent to 97.37. It rose 0.5 percent in the week.

Non-Farm Employment Change in December was expected 162 thousands increasing which was 256 thousands in November. But it increased 145 thousands in last month.

Thought non-farm payrolls decreased, unemployment rate has kept 3.5 percent historical low in fifty years. It support the U.S. economy is still good.

The recent military tension between the United States and Iran boosted the price of safe-haven assets and oil. But US President Donald Trump and his counterpart remain cool, so military tension is entering a calming phase, and surged price retreat.

U.S. did airstrike to kill Iranian No. 2, Qassem Soleimani. And Iran has vowed retaliation.

Risk appetite is gradually recovering, and euro rose against greenback.

A Forex strategist said, Dollar-long position was still available but investors needed to watch whether it fades away.

The sign of first-step trade deal between top two economy entities is hold on next Wednesday, market participants expect.  It is reportedly, the first-step deal will support strong dollar.



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[EUR] Rising Euro 2019 1212

EUR/USD four-hour chart, source:FXDD.com

cf. [EUR] Awating Two Big Events 2019 1210
cf. [EUR] EURO Trying to Reach Upper Band, 1.1161 2019 1205
cf. [EUR] Rising Euro in Short Term 2019 1202
cf. [EUR] Still Short Bias 2019 1129

Euro surges after FOMC's benchmark-rate freeze. Currency pair EUR/USD broke through 1.1100 and exceeded 1.1130, and futures item, euro fx-201912, 6EZ19's price shows 1.11445.

Euro is expected to rise and face downward trend line. It seems to exceed the trend line, above 1.1150x.

But it doesn't mean to change the bias. Euro could rise over the downward trend line and upper band of Bollinger Bands in the weekly chart, and currency pair eur/usd reaches 120 exponential moving average, 1.135xx.

But it is possible to retreat after facing the meaningful prices.

After FOMC meeting, dollar index, greenback's value against the basket of major six currencies, dropped 0.35 percent to 97.087, lowest level since last July.

FOMC froze the Federal Funds Rate 1.5 percent~1.75 percent and Fed supported the freeze of the benchmark rate for a long time though President Donald Trump has pressed Jerome Powell, Fed Chair to lower the benchmark rate. And it led dollar index to dive more.

Most of market participants expected the rate freeze. Members of FOMC hinted that the benchmark rate would be frozen in the next year, too.

U.S. President Trump gave the notice of the tariffs on Chinese consumer goods on December 15, but Chinese officials forecast the delaying. The expectation of the deal is uncertain, and it presses currencies' volatility.

There are still Forex big events. British snap election and ECB meeting are hold on Thursday, respectively. Deadline of U.S-Sino trade deal comes on Sunday, too.

We need to keep in mind ECB's currency policy of Quantitative Easing in next year. And we should listen to some analysts' careful expectation of weak greenback in next year, too. There are U.S. President election, the possibility of top two economy entities' deal and rebound of euro zone economy.

European Central Bank is likely to keep benchmark interest rate.

And the new President Christine Lagarde is likely to stress the need for more efforts on the fiscal front.

Gjallarhorn doesn't have any position now. The position would be gotten in next year.

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